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Feb. 19th-21st Winter Storm Part 3


wisconsinwx

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WWA for Chicago land.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Skilling FTW..

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CSTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMNOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW.* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MONDAY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED.

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WWA for Chicago land.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CSTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMNOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW.* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MONDAY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED.

Yeah I am starting to think that this at least brushes the Southern parts of GRR/DTX's CWAs

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Storm total imby:

P: 1.13"

S: 10.2"

DTW officially saw 10.1" complete with thundersnow and 0.06 mile visibility. This actually does squeeze in the list tying for 25th biggest snowstorm officially on record since 1880.

What a wonderful storm. It is gorgeous outside. Yes we had some sleet mix cutting down totals SLIGHTLY, but what a treat that the cold air aloft won the battle. So much for an inch of snow followed by ice lol. My mom said to me, imagine if all the old deep snow hadnt melted. This seals the deal for me...an A+ winter. Cars getting stuck left and right, saw two this morning digging themselves out at street corners/gas station. This is easily the best good bust Ive ever seen, replacing Feb 5, 2011. Well over 2 feet of snow on the month now, and this is TWO 10" snowstorms in 3 weeks.

EDIT: right after I posted this, I get a text from my sister, and she said "WOW imagine if the old snow hadnt melted wed have soooo much on the ground".

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WWA for Chicago land.thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Skilling FTW..

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CSTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMNOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW.* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MONDAY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED.

not sure where it's going to come from. Looks like it will miss south based on radar extrapolation..plus latest NAM moves it south of us. Most other outlets going with trace- two inches.

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had around 13" here and with the 40+mph winds throughout the storm, i am blocked in...5 -6 foot drifts on my drive lane...county plows have not been by to plow of the county road so i'm stuck at home for awhile. :thumbsup:

Thanks to you and all of the MN and MI posters for the great snow pics!!!

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I'm calling our storm total 11.0", which is an educated estimate. My location is basically between Andy and West Bend, WI, or about 3 miles NW of Random Lake.

I know we had 7.5" by 7pm, and I know 2.2" fell between 10pm and when the snow ended about 12:30-1am. I'm confident that from 7-10pm, we had at least 1.3" (probably a bit more) so I'm comfortable saying we had 11.0".

So when's wave 2 going to get here?? (Todd taps his foot impatiently) Oh yeah, then wave 3 for Thursday night! And that program for next Monday/Tuesday looks *very* robust.

LMAO.

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Skilling Blog

Snow's on the way in Chicago and it's likely to push Feb's snow total here to an all time record. Only 1.8" is needed for that to happen. This is our RPM model's take on snow here, which is to commence this afternoon, reach its peak late tonight and taper off during Tues morning. An average of 3.9" of system snow is predicted Chi & north--much less south. Lake enhancement of snowfall is likely to be modest but could add another 1-2"--especially northern lakeside suburbs. Amounts will taper off to the west.

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Skilling Blog

Snow's on the way in Chicago and it's likely to push Feb's snow total here to an all time record. Only 1.8" is needed for that to happen. This is our RPM model's take on snow here, which is to commence this afternoon, reach its peak late tonight and taper off during Tues morning. An average of 3.9" of system snow is predicted Chi & north--much less south. Lake enhancement of snowfall is likely to be modest but could add another 1-2"--especially northern lakeside suburbs. Amounts will taper off to the west.

LOT's AFD aviation update at 9:55 am:

* POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND EFFECT ON

VSBYS...NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE CHANGEOVER FROM DRIZZLE TO

SNOW MAY BE LATER AND DURATION/AMOUNT OF SNOW MAY BE LESSER.

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LOT's AFD aviation update at 9:55 am:

* POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND EFFECT ON

VSBYS...NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE CHANGEOVER FROM DRIZZLE TO

SNOW MAY BE LATER AND DURATION/AMOUNT OF SNOW MAY BE LESSER.

have you ever once been optimistic? lol always finding the negatives.

I dont see 3.9" here but 1-3" seems like a good bet.

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have you ever once been optimistic? lol always finding the negatives.

I dont see 3.9" here but 1-3" seems like a good bet.

Could not have said it any better and this from Skilling Blog

This is the Univ of IL's WRF model forecast of water equivalent precipitation with late today & tonight's system. You can see how lakeside counties of northern Il & southeast WI are favored. A good chunk of the precip south will fall as rain before the switchover cutting into snow accumulations there. Cloud temps affect snowflake formation and therefore how much snow you get of a weather system. Those temps imply a snow/water ratio with this system of 11.7 inches of snow for every 1" of water. With an average of 0.32" of water equiv precip predicted with this system, this suggests something like 3.8-3.9" of snow is a good average from the north end of Chicago north. Lighter amounts are likely west & south.

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not sure where it's going to come from. Looks like it will miss south based on radar extrapolation..plus latest NAM moves it south of us. Most other outlets going with trace- two inches.

Most, if not all of our snow will come with what develops with the upper low later this afternoon/tonight...not what's on radar to our SE right now.

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Hows this for a gradient. Detroit is buried under 10 inches of snow, Toledo has 1 inch of snow plus everything draped in ice. Parts of SW MI (Benton Harbor) have completely bare ground.

Yeah, amazing. Congrats on your snow!

ORD ended up with 0.95" of plain rain with temps 33-36F. Not even a bit of snow, sleet, or ZR...it was all rain.

Hopefully we'll pick up a few inches of snow with the 2nd disturbance tonight. :)

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have you ever once been optimistic? lol always finding the negatives.

I dont see 3.9" here but 1-3" seems like a good bet.

I am being an optimist. I am not looking for or hoping for a 4-5 inch snow. You and I have been down this before. I am more then within the rules of a weather forum to debate the probability of what I feel is an overzealous snowfall call by our local NWS office. Which it appears they are rethinking at this time.With that said, Chi Storms comment that much of our precip. will be driven by the upper low makes me pause and rethink my ideas and also educates me on this system. BTW sleet beginning to fall here.

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I am being an optimist. I am not looking for or hoping for a 4-5 inch snow. You and I have been down this before. I am more then within the rules of a weather forum to debate the probability of what I feel is an overzealous snowfall call by our local NWS office. Which it appears they are rethinking at this time.With that said, Chi Storms comment that much of our precip. will be driven by the upper low makes me pause and rethink my ideas and also educates me on this system. BTW sleet beginning to fall here.

From MKE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1024 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS JUST

NORTH OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT

WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER

EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS

AFTERNOON AND LAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY

ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE ENHANCED

SNOW IN FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN.

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From MKE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1024 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011

...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS JUST

NORTH OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT

WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER

EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS

AFTERNOON AND LAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY

ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE ENHANCED

SNOW IN FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN.

would the boldened imply greatest amounts across southern wisconsin?..noting that LOT only has Cook,DuPage,Lake and Mchenry in the WWA and areas south and west not in the advisory. Still thinking a 1-2 inch snowfall is more likely here.

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I am being an optimist. I am not looking for or hoping for a 4-5 inch snow. You and I have been down this before. I am more then within the rules of a weather forum to debate the probability of what I feel is an overzealous snowfall call by our local NWS office. Which it appears they are rethinking at this time.With that said, Chi Storms comment that much of our precip. will be driven by the upper low makes me pause and rethink my ideas and also educates me on this system. BTW sleet beginning to fall here.

you should do that more often.

ULL looks to be centered around the FSD area.

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