baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Interested to see how the AmericanWX WRF does. Here is its 36 hr precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 God Damn that avatar of yours dude..that ridging is very amplified ! heading straight toward moneyman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 The NMM/ARW are both colder...keeps T850s around -3C in Detroit: Totals: NMM ARW Also very moisture-laden. Wow, those solutions would be the best case scenario: around 1.5 QPF, likely mostly snow if Detroit is mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 the shear is amazing too, ugh. Given we had the instability in place my only concern would be the veered surface winds and quickly occluding surface low. I'd much rather have a surface low earlier in its life cycle, and not occluding. The models often try to occlude things a bit too quickly though. If we had more surface instability I think we'd have a great setup along the surface warm front back towards the triple point. South of there the veered surface winds would limit tornado potential IMO. If this was a bit later in the season with better instability I'd be targeting Ottumwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The NMM/ARW are both colder...keeps T850s around -3C in Detroit: Totals: NMM ARW The NMM is a good bit wetter here than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 How accurate are these Hi Res Models in regards to precip amounts? They seem to do well with precip placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Given we had the instability in place my only concern would be the veered surface winds and quickly occluding surface low. I'd much rather have a surface low earlier in its life cycle, and not occluding. The models often try to occlude things a bit too quickly though. If we had more surface instability I think we'd have a great setup along the surface warm front back towards the triple point. South of there the veered surface winds would limit tornado potential IMO. If this was a bit later in the season with better instability I'd be targeting Ottumwa. This is one of those rare setups that I have joked about with a few friends that my dream day would be to get TSSN and bag a tornado a few hours later. Not going to happen tomorrow but in a way kind of like that. The shear is there in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO farther SW and a bit colder so far compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO farther SW and a bit colder so far compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 st pushed out 00Z SmartModel data. Just some minor changes of overall snowfall forecasts: More details are posted at http://smartwxmodel.net Here are some latest predictions for snow based on my model: Redwood Falls 18" Brookings: 16" Minneapolish, Oshkosh, LaCrosse: 15" Madison 8" with .6" of FZRA Milwaukee 12" with .3" of FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO HR 24: 996 west of Lamoni, Iowa. 12z HR 36 had a 996 low ne of Des Moines Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Well one of these models will fail big time. Euro has a 997 low crawling on the IA/MO border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO HR 30: 1000 MB LOW SW of Chicago. 12z HR 42: 1004 MB LOW near Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 RGEM would be rain/freezing rain for Milwaukee while the EURO would be a 10 inch+ snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This is one of those rare setups that I have joked about with a few friends that my dream day would be to get TSSN and bag a tornado a few hours later. Not going to happen tomorrow but in a way kind of like that. The shear is there in the warm sector. This system would be a great blueprint for a setup like that if the WAA and moisture transport were more extreme. It's already obviously very impressive, but for a scenario like that we'd need this scenario on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO HR 30: 1000 MB LOW SW of Chicago. 12z HR 42: 1004 MB LOW near Chicago. At least it did slow it down. How does precip look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 st pushed out 00Z SmartModel data. Just some minor changes of overall snowfall forecasts: More details are posted at http://smartwxmodel.net Here are some latest predictions for snow based on my model: Redwood Falls 18" Brookings: 16" Minneapolish, Oshkosh, LaCrosse: 15" Madison 8" with .6" of FZRA Milwaukee 12" with .3" of FZRA Tell that to the MKX office. They only have 2-6 inches of snow and up to a quarter inch of ice right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 nice precip estimates.... rivers already have a 100% chance of hitting major flood stage even before we get another inch plus of precip blanketing the entire coteau des prairies, all that draining into the big sioux. Make sure I got an extra set of batteries ready for springtime. I never got out during the major crest we had last september due to the excessive rainfall. Never dreamed to get a second chance. What a wild (great) couple years it's been for weather out here. http://water.weather...10,7,8,2,9,15,6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 For the chicago area, you actually have ENE off the lake at this time.. This should turn more east but the cold wind off the lake often hangs up the WF around the area...This usually occurs during the spring though so a heavy precip event is possible... and it will be a battle for precip type too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 For Tsnow12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This system would be a great blueprint for a setup like that if the WAA and moisture transport were more extreme. It's already obviously very impressive, but for a scenario like that we'd need this scenario on roids. I have a better shot at a 20" snow event than TSSN to a tornado hours later lol but sure fun to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO QPF through hr 42: MSP: .25-.5 C. MN: .5-.75 S. MN: .75-1 IA: .75-1 (1-1.25 in extreme E. IA) SW IA: .5-.75 Extreme N. IL: 1-1.25 Chicago: .75-1 NW. IL: 1-1.25 Green Bay: .5-.75 La Crosse: .75-1 Milwaukee: 1-1.25 Madison: .75-1 E. Michigan: .5-.75 W. Michigan: .75-1 Detroit: .5-.75 (close to .75) It weakens a lot by hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO QPF through hr 42: MSP: .25-.5 C. MN: .5-.75 S. MN: .75-1 IA: .75-1 (1-1.25 in extreme E. IA) SW IA: .5-.75 Extreme N. IL: 1-1.25 Chicago: .75-1 NW. IL: 1-1.25 Green Bay: .5-.75 La Crosse: .75-1 Milwaukee: 1-1.25 Madison: .75-1 E. Michigan: .5-.75 W. Michigan: .75-1 Detroit: .5-.75 (close to .75) It weakens a lot by hr 36. Uh are you sure about that? It went from 1"+ last run to 1/4-1/2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 For Tsnow12... wait wait wait....your sipping the TSSN kool aid now?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You are actually in the .5-.75. It's a VERY sharp graident. About 10 miles to your north is the .25-.5 line and like 20 miles south is the .75-1 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 DET...0.81 All Snow MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.1 -3.2 1014 85 99 0.10 553 542 MON 06Z 21-FEB -3.3 -4.7 1010 93 99 0.36 551 543 MON 12Z 21-FEB -5.2 -6.1 1012 88 100 0.29 548 539 MON 18Z 21-FEB -5.1 -6.4 1014 72 52 0.06 545 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 will for sure be setting my alarm for 4am or so to see where the band is at...not missing this baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 DET...0.81 All Sn ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 It scares me a bit that we're this close to the event and there is still so much uncertainty. How can some models give Minneapolis an 18" snowstorm and some (the Euro) barely more than 6? As well, some give MKE a bunch of rain, and others (the Euro, perhaps the GFS) put close to a foot of snow on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Uh are you sure about that? It went from 1"+ last run to 1/4-1/2? MSP on the euro 0.93 SUN 00Z 20-FEB -4.7 -1.2 1027 68 75 0.00 557 536 SUN 06Z 20-FEB -4.9 -1.3 1024 59 56 0.00 556 537 SUN 12Z 20-FEB -3.7 -3.4 1019 72 53 0.00 554 539 SUN 18Z 20-FEB -2.7 -5.6 1014 77 87 0.11 550 539 MON 00Z 21-FEB -2.6 -8.3 1009 77 99 0.24 545 538 MON 06Z 21-FEB -5.2 -10.9 1010 80 95 0.24 538 530 MON 12Z 21-FEB -7.2 -12.5 1012 79 90 0.15 535 526 MON 18Z 21-FEB -7.0 -13.4 1015 72 91 0.08 533 522 TUE 00Z 22-FEB -7.4 -14.2 1018 79 89 0.10 535 521 TUE 06Z 22-FEB -12.7 -14.6 1022 86 70 0.01 540 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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