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Feb. 19th-21st Winter Storm Part 3


wisconsinwx

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12z NMM shows a solid narrow swath of 1.5"+ along and south of the I-94 corridor in Michigan.

Amounts decreased to around 1" or less from M-59/I-96 north and I-80 southward.

12z ARW isn't as wet, 1"+ between I-94 and I-80 in MI/IN/OH with amounts decreasing north and south of there.

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Well, that's rubbish :thumbsdown:

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 1:18 PM EST SUNDAY 20 FEBRUARY 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON.

     ..SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
     TONIGHT..

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR:
     HALTON - PEEL
     HURON - PERTH
      WATERLOO - WELLINGTON.

     ..SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT..

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16Z SmartModel output just uploaded. Latest projected snowfall accumulation for the next 24 hours are:Redwood Falls 13", Minneapolis: 14", OshKosh: 10", Milwaukee: 11", and Abderdeen: 15". Madison looks to get hit hard with FZRA, seeing potential of .9" of freezing precip. Full list is posted at smartwxmodel.net

Hahaha, I wish :snowman: I do think we'll get more than the 1-3" the NWS is calling for.

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started with -SN here around 5 30am with good sized flakes and than went to PL for a bit, I then fell back asleep and woke up to rain lol

just had a pretty good downpour here.

hopefully we can get the second wave north.

The high res models show some LE ,,,

Edit: Check out Skilling's FB he has some nice nuggets on there on some snow tmrw/night..

hiresw_p03_048l.gif

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It's higher, 0.92"

You already know the precipitation type (At both airports).

Getting excited but also very nervous as Im right on the line being in slightly south of center lat wise in Wayne county. Yet the model qpf is highest in 94 corridor. Either way should be a good winter storm:

12z NAM for DTW:

part 1: 1.22"

part 2: 0.56"

Total qpf by Tuesday morning: 1.78"

12z GFS for DTW:

part 1: 1.36"

part 2: 0.24"

Total qpf by Tuesday morning: 1.60"

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Getting excited but also very nervous as Im right on the line being in slightly south of center lat wise in Wayne county. Yet the model qpf is highest in 94 corridor. Either way should be a good winter storm:

12z NAM for DTW:

part 1: 1.22"

part 2: 0.56"

Total qpf by Tuesday morning: 1.78"

12z GFS for DTW:

part 1: 1.36"

part 2: 0.24"

Total qpf by Tuesday morning: 1.60"

Yep, you're smack dab in the battle zone per all the models (except the EURO).

GEM was best for you, it keep you mostly snow outside a little sleet mix.

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