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Feb. 19th-21st Winter Storm Part 3


wisconsinwx

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dew point is 27 here but meh. Funny how all around us are colder, and here it's like 33-34 lol. (oshkosh 27, dodge 30/31 etc)

I'm pretty confident it won't start as rain for you guys. Temps are 34 or 35 here, and when I left the house 20 minutes ago the ride into MU (I work at the library there) it was sleeting, freezing rain or snowing.

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1030am 
Here's yet another "Toronto is right on the edge"  winter storm. Enjoy.

1. TODAY AND  TONIGHT..HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR 
HURON-PERTH ACROSS WATERLOO  REGION TO MISSISSAUGA AND SW FOR 
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE OF A 15  CM SNOW IN 12 HOUR EVENT 
ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW FROM GUSTY ENE WINDS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN 
WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH A BIT WITH THE POSITION OF THE  HEAVIEST SNOW 
AND THE NORTHERN EDGE..WITH THE LAST TWO EDITIONS OF THE SREF  
TWEAKING SOUTHWARD AGAIN AND THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTING THAT 
TORONTO  WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH NE TO ESCAPE THE HEAVIER SNOW. HENCE 
THE REASON FOR  NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF TORONTO AND YORK-DURHAM AND 
NEWD IN THE WATCH.  

THIS APPEARS TO BE A STABLE WAVE TRACKING E 
TOWARDS US AND WITH CONFLUENT  FLOW ALOFT FAVOURING HIGHER PRESSURES 
TO THE NORTH..IT WOULDN'T BE A  SURPRISE AT ALL IF THE HEAVY SNOW 
AREA AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WOUND  UP BEING A BIT FURTHER 
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW  THIS ONE PANS 
OUT.

IN THE GREY BRUCE TO DUFFERIN TO YORK-DURHAM AND TORONTO  AREAS 
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE FACT THEY  
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE NERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD WITH LESSER SNOW  
AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

THE SNOW AMOUNT GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP  
ACTUALLY..ESPECIALLY WITH MOISTURE PACKING UP AGAINST A STRONG W-E  
DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST N OF TORONTO. KEEP IN 
MIND  A SMALL CBANGE IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST 
S OF LAKE  ERIE WILL INFLUENCE HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW GETS..AND COULD 
MAKE A BIG  DIFFERENCE IN OBSERVED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS NEAR THE 
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE  SNOW SHIELD. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT 
OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE  HAMILTON AND NIAGARA AREAS IF THE COLD 
NELY FLOW IS ABLE TO PICK UP A BIT OF  MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO.

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Almost the exact same placement with the precip. 1.50+along 94 and almost up to M59. Models say it's a good go but time for the radar now. Have to do some work unfortunately today so enjoy the storm y'all.

When your at work do you frequently look at your phone?

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GRR just issued an updated discussion.

In summary...

*Don't freak out over the slowly rising surface temps, they'll stagnant/slowly drop as the winds shifts to the NE/ENE.

*Sleet may become a bigger issue tonight along the I-96 corridor, and they may have to lower the snowfall amounts a bit.

*Models show quite a bit of warm air between 850mb and 700mb.

Otherwise, everything else is on track.

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We had some golfball to fist sized snow here just before the changeover to sleet a few minutes ago. Crazy weather.

Lots of sleet and even ZR now. This is a prime setup for serious ice accumulations.

Welcome back from the abyss :P who knew it took a winter storm to bring ya back :)

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