wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Coincidentally, I just got home when the post count reached 1000. Have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ NMM is updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:08 AM, Moneyman said: http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ NMM is updated. Couldnt help myself...pulled this image from that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 my 5 minutes of TSSN and one CG lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 0z ggem 24 & 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:16 AM, prinsburg_wx said: 0z ggem 24 & 36 Is that run of the GGEM a tad north or south of the previous 0z runs of the GFS and NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 About all we have to hope for down here is the warm sector convective precip late tomorrow. Severe looks unlikely, but I'm hoping we can get our first look at some convective looking cumulus and the like. Ahhhhh, if we had just a bit more surface instability.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:18 AM, SpartyOn said: Is that run of the GGEM a tad north or south of the previous 0z runs of the GFS and NAM? north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 BTW...Local TV Mets around my area are completely lost in regards to precip amounts and precip type..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Theoretically, with parts of Southern Wisconsin getting into the rain more tomorrow, doesn't that possibly make conditions worse, considering any rain that does fall will quickly freeze once the ground cools below 32 degrees again. Let's say we get 0.3 inches of rain, but within 5 or 6 hours, the ground temps dip back below freezing. Isn't that akin to getting .3 inches of freezing rain? It won't have as much of an impact on power lines, but it will make the roads just as hazardous even with a smaller amount of actual freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 baro, some action possible in the north platte area...spc says some severe hail but watch unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 So the first 48 hours on the global GGEM, is it the same as the RGEM or does it use different data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:08 AM, Moneyman said: http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ NMM is updated. This model would certainly imply convective potential along and just north of the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:25 AM, Stevo6899 said: So the first 48 hours on the global GGEM, is it the same as the RGEM or does it use different data? From what I'm led to understand, the RGEM is simply a higher resolution version of the GGEM. They're not two completely separate models like the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:24 AM, prinsburg_wx said: baro, some action possible in the north platte area...spc says some severe hail but watch unlikely Yeah they have their hands full down there. I was talking to the MIC about it. But yeah--Tstorms, freezing rain, snow, winds, etc. They get the full slate of weather. Thankfully I wasn't moving this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:28 AM, Stebo48858 said: This model would certainly imply convective potential along and just north of the dryslot. Stebo...You think the southern counties of SEMI will chew on a the dry slot for an hour or so? Monroe - Wayne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:28 AM, snowstormcanuck said: From what I'm led to understand, the RGEM is simply a higher resolution version of the GGEM. They're not two completely separate models like the GFS and NAM. I think they use different parametrizations for precip, clouds, etc since the RGEM is higher res--but the dynamic solver is the same so typically they will look identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:31 AM, baroclinic_instability said: I think they use different parametrizations for precip, clouds, etc since the RGEM is higher res--but the dynamic solver is the same so typically they will look identical. And that's what I keyed into. I've never seen the RGEM and GGEM have radically different solutions in contrast to the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:31 AM, SpartyOn said: Stebo...You think the southern counties of SEMI will chew on a the dry slot for an hour or so? Monroe - Wayne? There is a chance, but that would purely be a nowcasting situation, if what the models are starting to hint at, a low forming in Indiana and moving East the chances of the dryslot poking in are lessened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:20 AM, cyclone77 said: About all we have to hope for down here is the warm sector convective precip late tomorrow. Severe looks unlikely, but I'm hoping we can get our first look at some convective looking cumulus and the like. Ahhhhh, if we had just a bit more surface instability.... the shear is amazing too, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I think snowfall totals around here could be all over the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The NMM/ARW are both colder...keeps T850s around -3C in Detroit: Totals: NMM ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:35 AM, Thundersnow12 said: the shear is amazing too, ugh. This is a good sign though for further down the line, case in point the potential with the Thurs/Friday system across the Southern Plains. The more we go along the more the Gulf will recover from the cooler than normal winter in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:36 AM, kab2791 said: The NMM/ARW are both colder...keeps T850s around -3C in Detroit: Totals: NMM ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:36 AM, daddylonglegs said: I think snowfall totals around here could be all over the map. God Damn that avatar of yours dude..that ridging is very amplified ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:38 AM, Stebo48858 said: If those amounts were to verify and areas along and north of M59 are all snow could we be talking a foot or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:40 AM, Stevo6899 said: If those amounts were to verify and areas along and north of M59 are all snow could we be talking a foot or more? wide swath of 7-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On 2/20/2011 at 5:40 AM, Stevo6899 said: If those amounts were to verify and areas along and north of M59 are all snow could we be talking a foot or more? If and that's a big if, they would be in the 10-14 range yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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