Edge Weather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The GFS has the 850 line over my house at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yup, 60 hours this thing is coming north and west. It's got plenty of room to do so. It's still colder than any other model though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Low starts off stronger with higher heights over the East Coast. 0z GFS looks to be caving to ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Rain to significant snow for N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yup, 60 hours this thing is coming north and west. It's got plenty of room to do so. It's still colder than any other model though. Yep....her 60 heavy rain for eastern PA-NYC....verbatiam its a snowstorm for pitt-state college-northern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 850 mb low tracks right over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yep....her 60 heavy rain for eastern PA-NYC....verbatiam its a snowstorm for pitt-state college-northern pa Perhaps this will finally quell the central PA whining brigade, not that they don't reserve the right to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 850 mb low tracks right over NYC You need a sounding at 66 for Westchester/Rockland...mighty close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Rain to significant snow for N NJ. Signficant preciep is out of the area before temps get cold enough...low goes right over 95....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 sv snowmaps are 8-12 for sne...and 4-8 central pa....nothing for the metro area or nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 With this track the low can shift in any direction. A shift of 100 miles north a warm rain, a shift of 100 south heavy snow. Lets see what the ECMWF and the GEM has to say. I still favor rain at this point, but I know it must be watch very closely, after all it is the crazy winter of 10/11, where it seems anything can happen and you can throw climatology out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 big cutter coming monday.....this pattern is just horrid....and to think this could have been the whole winter...glad its 2-22 and not 1-22........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 big cutter coming monday.....this pattern is just horrid....and to think this could have been the whole winter...glad its 2-22 and not 1-22........ THE best post of all winter, Tim. You really said it. We wouldn't sniff the 10 inch mark this season if we had THIS ranging classic Nina with no block the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 big cutter coming monday.....this pattern is just horrid....and to think this could have been the whole winter...glad its 2-22 and not 1-22........ Prob mid-upper 60's monday before the front pushes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 THE best post of all winter, Tim. You really said it. We wouldn't sniff the 10 inch mark this season if we had THIS ranging classic Nina with no block the entire season. Yeah, the pattern has really shifted. To be honest though, I'd rather have the big storms between 12/26 and 2/2 as we did this year; that's the period when we can comfortably hold a 1-2' snowpack and have the large majority of our events stay all frozen. We lucked out with the extreme -NAO/-AO in December and early January at a time it wasn't favored by ENSO climatology. At this point, I just want one to two more larger storms, since the snowpack doesn't really stick around here in late Feb/Mar and we're bound to have a bunch of days with highs above freezing as climo moves into the 40s. I think we can get a pattern reset by 3/3 and see a good period for a big Nor'easter. Prob mid-upper 60's monday before the front pushes through Too rainy...upper 40s to 50s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think we need to start becoming concerned with the potential for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 big cutter coming monday.....this pattern is just horrid....and to think this could have been the whole winter...glad its 2-22 and not 1-22........ Yep, and the pattern has been horrid since the NAO/AO went positive around the beginning of February. Honestly PHL and NYC were lucky to get the snow they did out of this pattern, and I'm not seeing anything promising through early March. No sign of an AO tank like many had thought, but maybe it'll occur mid month like March 1956. Don't know if it's just my perception but it seems like a big March has been expected by many over the past few years yet we've come up with virtually nothing. Too early to say for this year, but March has not been generous overall since 2000 like December's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think we need to start becoming concerned with the potential for flooding. I don't see that concern. The snow from Presidents Day is going to be compacted to nothing tomorrow and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yep, and the pattern has been horrid since the NAO/AO went positive around the beginning of February. Honestly PHL and NYC were lucky to get the snow they did out of this pattern, and I'm not seeing anything promising through early March. No sign of an AO tank like many had thought, but maybe it'll occur mid month like March 1956. Don't know if it's just my perception but it seems like a big March has been expected by many over the past few years yet we've come up with virtually nothing. Too early to say for this year, but March has not been generous overall since 2000 like December's been. We've gotten a little fortunate this month; I have 10" snowfall and temperatures only slightly above normal despite that the pattern has been anything but ideal. The pattern has basically been fading since the 1/12 storm but we've managed to make the most of the hand we've been dealt with some big snowfalls since then...still, it's pretty clear that mid-January was about the end of sustained NAO blocking, and now the strong Niña has taken over with the trough shifting out west as we saw in February 1955 and 1988. So you think winter is basically over, Tom? Or do we go out in glory and get the storm to break Central Park's record in mid-March? March 2009 wasn't bad here...10" on 3/2 and 1" on 3/20. March 2008 had some pretty big arctic spells but unfortunately not enough precipitation to accompany them. March 2004 was a blockbuster here in Westchester with two 7" snowfalls in the latter half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We've gotten a little fortunate this month; I have 10" snowfall and temperatures only slightly above normal despite that the pattern has been anything but ideal. The pattern has basically been fading since the 1/12 storm but we've managed to make the most of the hand we've been dealt with some big snowfalls since then...still, it's pretty clear that mid-January was about the end of sustained NAO blocking, and now the strong Niña has taken over with the trough shifting out west as we saw in February 1955 and 1988. So you think winter is basically over, Tom? Or do we go out in glory and get the storm to break Central Park's record in mid-March? March 2009 wasn't bad here...10" on 3/2 and 1" on 3/20. March 2008 had some pretty big arctic spells but unfortunately not enough precipitation to accompany them. March 2004 was a blockbuster here in Westchester with two 7" snowfalls in the latter half of the month. Nate, you've done better than most of us this month. Back home in Monmouth County has seen < 1" of snow since late January. Latest weekly numbers indicate the Nina has weakened quite a bit to near moderate intensity, but at this point, it'll probably be too little too late in terms of saving the pattern. By and large I believe winter is over for NYC and the coast; I can't say the same for the interior Northeast, as they may receive some of the best snows they've seen all winter with this pattern. With the teleconnectors like they are, we need systems to be weak/strung out to manage minor/mod snows out of them. Lows that wind up too much will likely cut inland, as we're seeing later this week and possibly early the following week too. The arctic, atlantic, and north pacific all favor SE ridging, which generally isn't good for NYC area southward. So basically, until I see some sign of a -PNA relaxation or another blocking episode, I'm not optimistic about winter returning, and certainly nowhere near it's stregnth earlier in the winter. If winter returns for us, it'll likely be in the mid to latter part of March (if it occurs). I think NYC/coast will likely see one more decent snowfall (4"+) but I can't say when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Tom, it really just takes two moderate snowfalls to surpass 1995-1996, and of course, if we get the block for late March-April, it will probably have snow in it also. It would be very mirroring of March-April 1996 if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Tom, it really just takes two moderate snowfalls to surpass 1995-1996, and of course, if we get the block for late March-April, it will probably have snow in it also. It would be very mirroring of March-April 1996 if that happened. It is going to be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 March 2009 wasn't bad here...10" on 3/2 and 1" on 3/20. March 2008 had some pretty big arctic spells but unfortunately not enough precipitation to accompany them. March 2004 was a blockbuster here in Westchester with two 7" snowfalls in the latter half of the month. Upton recorded 4 snowy (i.e. 10"+ March's) in the last 10 years (in '01, '04, '05, and '09)....though it is kind of difficult to count the '09 one as all the action took place on the first 2 days of the month. March 2001: 19" March 2004: 11" March 2005: 16" March 2009: 14.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Upton recorded 4 snowy (i.e. 10"+ March's) in the last 10 years (in '01, '04, '05, and '09)....though it is kind of difficult to count the '09 one as all the action took place on the first 2 days of the month. March 2001: 19" March 2004: 11" March 2005: 16" March 2009: 14.8" What about March '03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What about March '03? March 2003: 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 March 2003: 5.5" I assume most of it was from the March 6th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Tom, it really just takes two moderate snowfalls to surpass 1995-1996, and of course, if we get the block for late March-April, it will probably have snow in it also. It would be very mirroring of March-April 1996 if that happened. Chris, I think it takes more than two moderate ones. NYC's at about 61" now, so essentially they need two 7-8" events or one 15" event to break the record. It doesn't seem bad considering how easily we've been getting snow in recent winters, but the big snows of earlier this winter certainly weren't by chance; we had a phenomenal, record breaking pattern in place in the Arctic and north atlantic, then the Pacific saved us from torching Jan 15-Feb 10. NYC has not seen much snow since the pattern change a few weeks ago, and this is within our snowiest period climatologically. As we move forward, it gets more and more difficult to get significant snows, especially by March 10th and beyond. Once we reach March 15th, even if the pattern heads back to favorable, the chances of it producing a major or even significant snow event along the coast are pretty slim. I mean look at how many times we've seen a significant snowstorm (5"+) after March 15th, since 1990. Only 1996 and 2003 (this is for NYC). Like I said, I do think we'll see one more decent snow, possibly within this March 15th-early April time frame, but not going to touch 1995-96 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 March 2003: 5.5" I assume most of it was from the March 6th storm. NOUS41 KOKX 071911 PNSOKX PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 210 EST FRI MAR 07 2003 THE FOLLOWING IS AN UPDATED LIST OF UNOFFICIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE MARCH 6TH SNOW STORM. SNOW TIME/DATE LOCATION TOTAL ...SUFFOLK... WADING RIVER 7.2 700 PM 03/06 SOUTHOLD 7.0 600 PM 03/06 BAITING HOLLOW 6.9 700 AM 03/07 EAST HAMPTON ARPT 6.6 300 PM 03/06 MATTITUCK 6.6 900 PM 03/06 MOUNT SINAI 6.5 445 PM 03/06 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 6.5 730 PM 03/06 SAG HARBOR 6.4 400 PM 03/06 EAST SETAUKET 6.3 900 PM 03/06 ST JAMES 6.1 830 PM 03/06 SELDEN 5.7 1000 PM 03/06 SMITHTOWN 5.7 730 PM 03/06 BROOKHAVEN LAB 5.5 800 AM 03/07 CENTEREACH 5.5 610 PM 03/06 MEDFORD 5.5 700 PM 03/06 NWS UPTON 5.4 700 PM 03/06 BOHEMIA 5.2 900 PM 03/06 CENTERPORT 5.1 800 AM 03/07 CORAM 5.0 700 PM 03/06 EAST QUOGUE 5.0 830 PM 03/06 PATCHOGUE 5.0 530 PM 03/06 ROCKY POINT 5.0 430 PM 03/06 DIX HILLS 4.5 730 PM 03/06 EAST YAPHANK 4.5 700 PM 03/06 HOLBROOK 4.5 700 PM 03/06 ISLIP 4.5 900 PM 03/06 LAKE RONKONKOMA 4.5 800 AM 03/07 MILLER PLACE 4.5 800 PM 03/06 NORTH SHIRLEY 4.2 515 PM 03/06 MANORVILLE 4.0 600 PM 03/06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Upton recorded 4 snowy (i.e. 10"+ March's) in the last 10 years (in '01, '04, '05, and '09)....though it is kind of difficult to count the '09 one as all the action took place on the first 2 days of the month. March 2001: 19" March 2004: 11" March 2005: 16" March 2009: 14.8" William, and all of that snowfall occurred prior to March 16th IIRC. The pattern through early March looks like your typical strong nina regime, cutter followed by cold. We can change after the 10th-15th but thereafter it becomes very difficult to get meaningful snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 William, and all of that snowfall occurred prior to March 16th IIRC. Most of the March 2004 snow fell from March 16 to March 19. 1 to 3 inches also fell from March 23- 24, 2005. ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... MOUNT SINAI 3.2 600 AM 3/24 BAITING HOLLOW 2.9 915 AM 3/24 SMITHTOWN 2.9 730 AM 3/24 UPTON 2.9 700 AM 3/24 CENTERPORT 2.8 600 AM 3/24 FARMINGVILLE 2.7 600 AM 3/24 PORT JEFFERSON 2.5 800 AM 3/24 SAINT JAMES 2.2 900 AM 3/24 MEDFORD 2.0 700 AM 3/24 ISLIP ARPT 1.1 700 AM 3/24 BAY SHORE 1.0 800 AM 3/24 LAKE RONKONKOMA 1.0 745 AM 3/24 SHIRLEY 0.7 620 AM 3/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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