CooL Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ukie and JMA are way west like euro as well. gfs has no support it seems, nor does its solution have any support from the pattern in place, obviously. I give it about 5% of being right.. I still think other models will trend east but will still result in rain for us.. I still have that "blizzard of the century" storm in my mind, when the euro kept showing hits and the gfs was suppressed, which was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 it still seems odd that the NAM at 12z was showing a southern track and then the 18z, of all runs, jumped back NW. I actually think the 18z track may be close to what actually verifies, with those far NW solutions being suspect. we'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 it still seems odd that the NAM at 12z was showing a southern track and then the 18z, of all runs, jumped back NW. I actually think the 18z track may be close to what actually verifies, with those far NW solutions being suspect. we'll see what happens! I agree with this. When I saw the 18Z NAM that's what I thought we would start seeing consensus on. Now I see the GFS. Wow, whats amazing to me is the lack of agreement for so long. Both GFS and EURO are steadfast with their respective solutions. I actually can't wait to see which is right. Like I said, though, I agree with Quincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 gfs has no support it seems, nor does its solution have any support from the pattern in place, obviously. I give it about 5% of being right.. I still think other models will trend east but will still result in rain for us.. I still have that "blizzard of the century" storm in my mind, when the euro kept showing hits and the gfs was suppressed, which was right. Yeah, maybe even less than 5%. Positive NAO. High to the east of NYC, with south to southeast winds. I don't see how areas near the coast will be cold enough for a snow event. Looks to me like all rain for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I thought on Thursday that the last NYC snowfall would be rain then everything trended east, being that we are is a strange winter to say the least, I would wait for more models runs before I come to a final conclusion. However at this time I am leaning to rain ending as some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I agree with this. When I saw the 18Z NAM that's what I thought we would start seeing consensus on. Now I see the GFS. Wow, whats amazing to me is the lack of agreement for so long. Both GFS and EURO are steadfast with their respective solutions. I actually can't wait to see which is right. Like I said, though, I agree with Quincy The 18z GFS/12z NAM seem to be dampening the wave out more...the 12z ECM had this as 991mb in SW PA whereas the 12z NAM and most recent run of the GFS don't want to amplify the wave as much, keeping it moving west to east under that area of confluence in Quebec. Here's the 12z ECM compared to the 18z GFS at the same time...note how much weaker the low is on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 21z srefs agree with 18z gefs mean. Looks like a few left leaning members too, so i would expect nam to look like its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 well,i dont know, the nam looks pretty good so far. Energy races out ahead and the flow looks pretty flat across the northern tier in response to the flow splitting. Lets see where the NAM goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This run is coming in noticeably further south and colder. This run has the 850's at +1 instead of +3 at 51 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Through 54 hours NAM is also trying to make a horse race out of it. Cold dry air from the HP moving down off the -EPO is coming in right as the sw ejects. The first piece of northern stream does a decent job of flatening the flow but not sure its enough. Def. has my attention. Could be a rain to snow situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 this has no chance. forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nope, 60 hours, lots of rain. SW just too fast, cold air never builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 this has no chance. forget about it. Agreed. Just wanted to see if the NAM improved at all. Its a loser all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I don't want to sound like a weenie, but this is still 60-72 hours out and things could change. It's not a complete stretch to possibly see a mix to rain scenario or even a mostly mix situation not all that far inland. At this point, do I expect it? no. I'm forecasting a high of 40 degrees in Danbury and low/mid-40s along the coast of Connecticut on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 this has no chance. forget about it. Do you feel any better for the system on Sunday into early next week? Lonnie Quinn (questionable source I know) predicted it to be "mostly frozen" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just to clarify what my two asterisks mean. I think there's a 31%-50% of significant wintry precipitation on Friday. That's 50% chance or less. The models will continue most likely to disagree and I doubt we'll have a clear consensus on this before sometime tomorrow. But either the NAM or GFS solution or anything in between is still possible IMO. Those going by rules that such and such cannot and will never happen without a negative NAO or +PNA (or other pattern features) as absolutes could easily be fooled if not by this specific storm, by another. In addition, somebody stated that I usually prefer the GFS. It depend on the situation and what I see happening in the pattern and in a given season. We have had several storms this season that have worked cold air in via incoming HP. There is NO chance whatsoever that the current cold HP over us is going to supply this storm with ANY cold air. However, if the idea of the northern stream system is being underdone, the HP to the west will nose its way e-ward and be a player Friday, and probably more of a player than just to provide us with a colder rain. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Agreed. Just wanted to see if the NAM improved at all. Its a loser all the way According to SV 48hr snowfall map, it's showing 8-12" for NYC, 4-8" NYC, almost 12" for boston.. does this make sense? i see 850's crash, but not the surface around 66-69. Just the model map placing too much emphasis on the 850 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I just checked soundings. Their map must be messed up. 850's crash after the precip cuts off. According to SV 48hr snowfall map, it's showing 8-12" for NYC, 4-8" NYC, almost 12" for boston.. does this make sense? i see 850's crash, but not the surface around 66-69. Just the model map placing too much emphasis on the 850 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just to clarify what my two asterisks mean. I think there's a 31%-50% of significant wintry precipitation on Friday. That's 50% chance or less. The models will continue most likely to disagree and I doubt we'll have a clear consensus on this before sometime tomorrow. But either the NAM or GFS solution or anything in between is still possible IMO. Those going by rules that such and such cannot and will never happen without a negative NAO or +PNA (or other pattern features) as absolutes could easily be fooled if not by this specific storm, by another. In addition, somebody stated that I usually prefer the GFS. It depend on the situation and what I see happening in the pattern and in a given season. We have had several storms this season that have worked cold air in via incoming HP. There is NO chance whatsoever that the current cold HP over us is going to supply this storm with ANY cold air. However, if the idea of the northern stream system is being underdone, the HP to the west will nose its way e-ward and be a player Friday, and probably more of a player than just to provide us with a colder rain. WX/PT If we get a rain event. With the cold temps lately, the ground has firmed up. If we get some moderate or heavy rains, that could lead to some ice jamming along some rivers to the north and west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I just saw what you are talking about. Someone needs to tell them to fix whatever is causing that stupid map to do that. That is ridicules. According to SV 48hr snowfall map, it's showing 8-12" for NYC, 4-8" NYC, almost 12" for boston.. does this make sense? i see 850's crash, but not the surface around 66-69. Just the model map placing too much emphasis on the 850 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I just checked soundings. Their map must be messed up. 850's crash after the precip cuts off. Thanks. I figured the map looked funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z GFS is huge...if it trends towards the Euro/Ukie, it's over for NYC. But if the GFS holds its grounds and shows enough CAA from the northern stream low, NYC and especially NW suburbs are potentially in the game for at least some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yes it is keeping me up. Anything is possible until either the GFS or Euro give in. I have no idea which it will be, but the Euro did better with the last system in this range. The GFS though often does better with northern stream systems and the Euro with southern stream systems. Where that leaves us with this particular storm I have no idea. 0z GFS is huge...if it trends towards the Euro/Ukie, it's over for NYC. But if the GFS holds its grounds and shows enough CAA from the northern stream low, NYC and especially NW suburbs are potentially in the game for at least some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z GFS is huge...if it trends towards the Euro/Ukie, it's over for NYC. But if the GFS holds its grounds and shows enough CAA from the northern stream low, NYC and especially NW suburbs are potentially in the game for at least some snow. The chances of snow in NYC in this pattern are near zero. There is almost no support at all, even at your location. The GFS was suffering from convective feedback on it's 18z run, and it was pretty severe. The H5 track is even pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z GFS is huge...if it trends towards the Euro/Ukie, it's over for NYC. But if the GFS holds its grounds and shows enough CAA from the northern stream low, NYC and especially NW suburbs are potentially in the game for at least some snow. Don't agree. What if the 00Z GFS caves into the Euro/UKMET and then tomorrow at 12Z, the NAM goes back to the GFS solution of today so far? Then what? Don't tell me that cannot happen because there is no negative NAO or no +PNA. You do not know what will happen until it has already happened. This winter season should have taught some lessons (especially in terms of the modelling) that these models trade places rather easily once they take certain factors into account over others. Our experience this season should tell us that there probably will not be a model consensus or if there is, it will probably be temporary. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The chances of snow in NYC in this pattern are near zero. There is almost no support at all, even at your location. The GFS was suffering from convective feedback on it's 18z run, and it was pretty severe. The H5 track is even pretty bad. Are you forgetting his 400'? That makes all the difference difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Are you forgetting his 400'? That makes all the difference difference. Not if the storm tracks over Buffalo Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not if the storm tracks over Buffalo Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS a good bit more amplified through 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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