earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's snow all the way to Newark at 72 hours, and heavy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 LOL, Nice snow storm for too KMMU Earthlights backyard. Here is MMU sounding 66 and 72, that's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Global teleconnectors say the GFS is full of sh%$. It's difficult to imagine a track as portrayed on the 18z GFS given the -PNA, +NAO and +AO in place. The pattern is prone to stronger SE-ridging, and considering this is not an overrunning event, it's much more likely to cut inland. Euro seems more reasonable meteorologically atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It's just amazing how consistent the GFS is with a colder and much further south solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Global teleconnectors say the GFS is full of sh%$. It's difficult to imagine a track as portrayed on the 18z GFS given the -PNA, +NAO and +AO in place. The pattern is prone to stronger SE-ridging, and considering this is not an overrunning event, it's much more likely to cut inland. Euro seems more reasonable meteorologically atm. The only thing is that northern stream energy getting a front through right before the storm. The weak low over Quebec gets some CAA down and the shortwave is crushed south. Wow, monster hit on the 18z: NYC probably breaks the record if GFS is right...close call though. Definitely a crusher up here though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Global teleconnectors say the GFS is full of sh%$. It's difficult to imagine a track as portrayed on the 18z GFS given the -PNA, +NAO and +AO in place. The pattern is prone to stronger SE-ridging, and considering this is not an overrunning event, it's much more likely to cut inland. Euro seems more reasonable meteorologically atm. Also anytime Henry Accuweather Pro $ 14.95 supports a model - go with the opposing model......stilll suprised PT is going with the GFS though... http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/46114/another-wild-storm-coming-with-snow-and-severe-weather.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 cmc ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just crazy at the differences between gfs and every other model. Storm is only 66 hours out! Either the biggest coup since JMA of 2006 or an epic fail by gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 A little warm at the surface but snow none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Just crazy at the differences between gfs and every other model. Storm is only 66 hours out! Either the biggest coup since JMA of 2006 or an epic fail by gfs. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/46114/another-wild-storm-coming-with-snow-and-severe-weather.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I just saw the GFS... and I am in disbelief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I just saw the GFS... and I am in disbelief. That's a good reaction to the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro is an outlier at this point. Ggem ensembles are closer to the gfs than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I just saw the GFS... as usual, I am in disbelief. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GEFS takes the surface low mean over NYC so clearly the OP is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 stilll suprised PT is going with the GFS though... Not surprising to me...I've followed his forecasts for many years and based on how he forecasts (he has never verbally stated this) he has the highest of regard for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Euro is an outlier at this point. Ggem ensembles are closer to the gfs than the Euro. It absolutely is not an outlier. The UKmet and Euro ensembles are actually a hair northwest of the OP Euro. The NAM is also far north and west. The GFS is suppressed but even it's ensembles are further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It absolutely is not an outlier. The UKmet and Euro ensembles are actually a hair northwest of the OP Euro. The NAM is also far north and west. The GFS is suppressed but even it's ensembles are further north and west. even the NOGAPS is inland. Simple fact is the GFS cannot handle a -PNA/+NAO pattern. Spike the PNA or tank the NAO and it can compete, but when the pacific dominates it simply goes to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GEFS takes the surface low mean over NYC so clearly the OP is out to lunch. Gefs are much different then euro and rest though. Low appears to go just south of NYC. Regardless, Gefs is FAR from the euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 It absolutely is not an outlier. The UKmet and Euro ensembles are actually a hair northwest of the OP Euro. The NAM is also far north and west. The GFS is suppressed but even it's ensembles are further north and west. The gfs ensembles are closer to the gfs than they are to the Euro. Should be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The gfs ensembles are closer to the gfs than they are to the Euro. Should be interesting to see what happens. Gefs are not in the same planet or universe, compared to euro and other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 By far the driest the Gulf has been this entire winter, pretty cool to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 By far the driest the Gulf has been this entire winter, pretty cool to watch. I can see the oil !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I can see the oil!!! The small area of moisture just east of Cozumel was likely a fart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The small area of moisture just east of Cozumel was likely a fart The fact you actually saw that is simply amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The fact you actually saw that is simply amazing. I'm like a hawk with this stuff. Might also be steam from a ship in the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm like a hawk with this stuff. Might also be steam from a ship in the water Or someone smoking a bong on a cruise ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If I had to guess I would say that the GFS is having feedback issues at 60 hrs which is leading to a further south track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Gefs are not in the same planet or universe, compared to euro and other globals. Yeah the ECM and especially its ENS are way far west compared to everything...some of them want to track this over Indiana. Still think a track just north of NYC with the exit off SNE is the wise course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah the ECM and especially its ENS are way far west compared to everything...some of them want to track this over Indiana. Still think a track just north of NYC with the exit off SNE is the wise course... Ukie and JMA are way west like euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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