bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I never did either... But this one looks wet Agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Thank you. You see the problem is our insight does not align with his thoughts and for that reason is seen as less credible and greatly undervalued. This thread is loaded with great posters, and the depth of the current discussion is evidence of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Agreed... 18z NAM is atrocious...we get about 1" rain with 850s of +5C. Without any blocking, I'm not sure NYC metro is going to like the "active period" coming up. We're mostly lost without a -NAO/-AO, especially when we have a big trough in the West. I'd imagine this is the time of winter where the Upper Midwest and Plains will rapidly catch up to our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Right now, we just gotta take it by the chins and wait until likely mid March when the PNA rises and the NAO goes neutral a bit, then the last hurrah will be around then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Agreed... I just can't see how this one turns into a snowstorm...we've got the ridge axis well offshore in the Pacific with a raging -PNA. Deep SW flow is evident at 500mb, and there's a 486dm vortex over Baffin Island, exactly the opposite set-up as we had earlier in the winter for the 12/26 and 1/12 storms. With such a strong +NAO, there's nothing to lock in the high pressure and prevent the SE ridge from being the dominant player...congrats Detroit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I just can't see how this one turns into a snowstorm...we've got the ridge axis well offshore in the Pacific with a raging -PNA. Deep SW flow is evident at 500mb, and there's a 486dm vortex over Baffin Island, exactly the opposite set-up as we had earlier in the winter for the 12/26 and 1/12 storms. With such a strong +NAO, there's nothing to lock in the high pressure and prevent the SE ridge from being the dominant player...congrats Detroit: I could not agree more. We can only hope that this period of interior storms helps to transform the pattern and allow things to become more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You see the problem is our insight does not align with his thoughts and for that reason is seen as less credible and greatly undervalued. This thread is loaded with great posters, and the depth of the current discussion is evidence of this. I have to say, I remember your comments on the 26th. You were on the colder scenario with that one. I wasn't going to say anything, but no one else seems to remember. I only remember because I stated something about models trending colder and it kept being deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I was not one of the people arguing for the rain, I was one of few calling for snow. Regardless what someone argues/advocates is not indicative of what is actually happening or what does indeed unfold. There was a large atlantic low, almost like a psuedo 50/50, which prevented the HP from sliding out to sea. Also a large polar vortex and strong confluence to the north of us preventing an interior solution, prohibiting WAA, and fundamental in advecting cold air into the region. This time around there is no large Atlantic low needed to prevent the HP from sliding out to sea, no large polar vortex, no strong confluence....so there is no basis in an argument going against the majority of modeling this time around, like there was on Jan 26. My good man, not only did the high slide out to sea, but another one had time to build in and prevent the winds from going SE. I don't know what you're talking about dude. Btw, I'll say it again: I don't think it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z NAM is atrocious...we get about 1" rain with 850s of +5C. Without any blocking, I'm not sure NYC metro is going to like the "active period" coming up. We're mostly lost without a -NAO/-AO, especially when we have a big trough in the West. I'd imagine this is the time of winter where the Upper Midwest and Plains will rapidly catch up to our totals. I think we catch lightining in a model with the threat after the 72 hour storm. Then back to wet solutions until either the PNA goes positive (MJO spike coming) or the NAO goes negatvie. Biggest problems now are the season of winter is ending climatologically and the wavelengths are changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 My good man, not only did the high slide out to sea, but another one had time to build in and prevent the winds from going SE. I don't know what you're talking about dude. Your analyzing one feature of a complex setup and missed my point regarding the polar vortex and strong area of confluence that established another cold high to our north. Might be partially related to the -EPO at the time. Regardless let me make this as simple as possible. There were elements evident in that setup that gave credence to the ideas of those arguing against modeling, such is not the case this time around. There is not one favorable aspect with this setup. Fair enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Y I have to say, I remember your comments on the 26th. You were on the colder scenario with that one. I wasn't going to say anything, but no one else seems to remember. I only remember because I stated something about models trending colder and it kept being deleted. yea earthlight (John) is really the only person I know on a personal level so I talk to him often via phone. I was talking about a snowstorm days in advance with him. I wish I was more personal with people in this thread, you all seem to have great insight. More importantly I am always looking for someone to talk to about the models etc. I love bull****ting with people on the phone rather then talking to myself lol. Plus when I am out it is always nice to have someone text me what the new model runs show lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Y yea earthlight (John) is really the only person I know on a personal level so I talk to him often via phone. I was talking about a snowstorm days in advance with him. I wish I was more personal with people in this thread, you all seem to have great insight. More importantly I am always looking for someone to talk to about the models etc. I love bull****ting with people on the phone rather then talking to myself lol. Plus when I am out it is always nice to have someone text me what the new model runs show lol there are a lot of people on here who chat off board and text model runs etc. Introduce yourself at the gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Your analyzing one feature of a complex setup and missed my point regarding the polar vortex and strong area of confluence that established another cold high to our north. Might be partially related to the -EPO at the time. Regardless let me make this as simple as possible. There were elements evident in that setup that gave credence to the ideas of those arguing against modeling, such is not the case this time around. There is not one favorable aspect with this setup. Fair enough? I'm on your side man. If you think about it then, why was almost everyone against the idea of snow with the January storm? Because they took the 84 hour depictions literally. Not saying this will be snow, actually I'm pretty damned sure it will rain, but people are making the same mistakes now that they made then, only in this case looking at it literally yields the same result as looking at it meteorologically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 My good man, not only did the high slide out to sea, but another one had time to build in and prevent the winds from going SE. I don't know what you're talking about dude. Btw, I'll say it again: I don't think it will snow. On top of that the NAO was Positive but the PNA was just transitioning to negative instead of it being roaringly negative like it is now. We need a Canadian High to build in from western Canada in time to keep this thing from cutting too much but with a candidate being depicted to do that way west of where the 1/26/11 High was, that will be a tall task. There was also a kicker on the heels of the 1/26/11 storm which we do not appear to have depicted just yet that helped us out for a change on 1/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm on your side man. If you think about it then, why was almost everyone against the idea of snow with the January storm? Because they took the 84 hour depictions literally. Not saying this will be snow, actually I'm pretty damned sure it will rain, but people are making the same mistakes now that they made then, only in this case looking at it literally yields the same result as looking at it meteorologically. Fair enough, but there is a major difference with that storm, there were some elements on the playing field that supported a colder/snowier solution. I know the reason I argued in favor of a snowstorm was because all the models showed a strong polar vortex over SE Canada and I found it unreasonable that the models were cutting the storm right into the area of greatest resistance. In this setup, there is not one single major feature that can overcome this horrible setup to support snow. So I think arguing in favor of snow this go around is not prudent nor based in sound reasoning. If we had a strong PV, 50/50, or +PNA then maybe I could see the basis for arguing in favor of snow friday, but none of these features are modeled. Jan 26 some favorable features were modeled, even though the consensus solution was an interior storm with rain for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 there are a lot of people on here who chat off board and text model runs etc. Introduce yourself at the gtg. when and where? I am down at school... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 OK - lets revisit this storm here with a thread from it and see who said what. People have major short memory. The overwhelming majority of mets and quality posters were saying Jan. 26th was going to be rain and inland because of the high sliding out to sea. Mets and some posters were barking that it was a terrible pattern and we have never gotten a big snow storm with a high sliding off the coast. Not until the Euro started showing a snow event, did these people back off. Dont want to post names but trust me all the highest quality posters and mets did not think Jan. 26th had a shot. Friday will most likely be a rain event for the coast, but not because the euro shows it as an inland cutter, The euro has been super inconsistent this year. Would not surprise me if euro loses the idea of a strong southern shorwave and becomes weaker and weaker, thus the low not cutting so far west. Storms in this range can change dramatically. Until a storm is inside of 36 hours, nothing is set in stone. Just 2 days ago, yesterday's storm was a rain and north storm slaming SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Is it possible to still get snow with a raging SE ridge, a strongly positive tilted trough out west and a supressing PV to our north? Yes but very difficult. In this case a weak S/W would get the job done as was the case just a day ago. The weekly Euro's were advertising for a long time that the SE ridge was going to flex its muscles around this time frame and many were skeptical about this scenario. I don't think the solution at this point is even close to being final and if the new NAM was not in agreement with the Euro, it would have been dismissed for making such a large run to run jump. Let's not forget this event is still out of the NAM's good range and it was just one run. Almost all guidance at 12z shifted SE, some more than others. With the track record of the models thus far this season I cann't for the life of me understand why one would dismiss this threat already as plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 when and where? I am down at school... Check the gtg thread it's up on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Check the gtg thread it's up on top. Thank you sir... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Gfs will likely suit with nam and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Is it possible to still get snow with a raging SE ridge, a strongly positive tilted trough out west and a supressing PV to our north? Yes but very difficult. In this case a weak S/W would get the job done as was the case just a day ago. The weekly Euro's were advertising for a long time that the SE ridge was going to flex its muscles around this time frame and many were skeptical about this scenario. I don't think the solution at this point is even close to being final and if the new NAM was not in agreement with the Euro, it would have been dismissed for making such a large run to run jump. Let's not forget this event is still out of the NAM's good range and it was just one run. Almost all guidance at 12z shifted SE, some more than others. With the track record of the models thus far this season I cann't for the life of me understand why one would dismiss this threat already as plain rain. Yes but we don't have a strong PV. It is well to our north along with the polar jet and no confluence. This past storm benefited from the intrusion of the PJ timed appropriately with overruning moisture. It helped also that strong confluence persisted which funneled in cold northerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Gfs will likely suit with nam and euro any scientific reasoning behind that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 any scientific reasoning behind that? Yea because the GFS smokes crack, no but seriously because the pattern is not supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Initial look at the GFS through 42 hours is that it will once again show a cold solution. Appears the gfs says a northern stream impulse races out ahead of teh energy ejecting from the west which squashes heights and allowd the new HP to work east even in the face of the raging -PNA. EDIT: It may be correcting itself in the later frames by allowing the se ridge to recover quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Major differences so far with the GFS regarding the low in the S/W. It closes off already at hr 36 on the new run and remained open on the 12z run through this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 hr 42 it opens up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 LOL at the GFS, its really trying to make a horse race out of this storm. Its hooked on the northern stream dominant flow to flatten out the pattern and is really trying to build in the fresh HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah huge weenie alert on the 18z gfs. Seriously, gotta love the cold and snow bias on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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