Quincy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 lol, looks like the 12z UK is a touch further NW than the EC. (FWIW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Road trip to Burlington, VT? Euro has light snows on Sunday like the GFS had. Probably warm at the surface, but cold enough for snow to at least be falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z ECMWF is NOT good for those along I-95 and even not good for those along the coastal plain to a couple hundred miles inland. should be a fun trip forecasting the next few days!!! Very tough call here. Though the EURO did nail the set-up and storm tracks yesterday and today, it is important to remember that initially the EURO was all amped up for this situation too, and then it adjusted way south and east. In addition, the overall set-up and storm origin/track for Friday's system is completely different. There are virtually no similarities. The GFS may be better at handling this with the front-runner s/w in southern Canada and the HP nosing e-ward in its wake. The next few days will be interesting for sure! Will King Euro cave to the NA continent models tonight? Stay tuned. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Very tough call here. Though the EURO did nail the set-up and storm tracks yesterday and today, it is important to remember that initially the EURO was all amped up for this situation too, and then it adjusted way south and east. In addition, the overall set-up and storm origin/track for Friday's system is completely different. There are virtually no similarities. The GFS may be better at handling this with the front-runner s/w in southern Canada and the HP nosing e-ward in its wake. The next few days will be interesting for sure! Will King Euro cave to the NA continent models tonight? Stay tuned. WX/PT I think the difference is whether it will be 36 and raining or 48 and raining in NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think the difference is whether it will be 36 and raining or 48 and raining in NYC... exactly-it's a cold rain or a colder rain-no real arctic air in play and departing HP off the coast means rain for most regardless of the final track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 exactly-it's a cold rain or a colder rain-no real arctic air in play and departing HP off the coast means rain for most regardless of the final track... What does henry say in the big dog video for 14.95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 What does henry say in the big dog video for 14.95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Classic nina patter on the long range ECM. Cold moves in, cold moves out, storm moves in, storm moves out, cold moves in etc. etc. etc. This is what you get when you had/have mod nina with no blocking. Even with nina winding down, the damage is long done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 While it will most likely wind up rain in the city, I heard the exact same arguments about how it couldn't snow in the cities a few days before January 26th. People said forget about getting snow on the coast, the setup is terrible. I believe most of us wound up with between 15 and 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 What does henry say in the big dog video for 14.95? LOL! What a joke. I figured I'd give it a try since I'm a member for 4 more days. (my monthly renewal is around the 26th..) Henry proceeds to say he favors the GFS over the EURO. Why? No, not because of any pattern or index--because it shows snow for his backyard and the Euro doesn't. I felt pretty good with my decision to cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 While it will most likely wind up rain in the city, I heard the exact same arguments about how it couldn't snow in the cities a few days before January 26th. People said forget about getting snow on the coast, the setup is terrible. I believe most of us wound up with between 15 and 20 inches. completely different pattern then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 completely different pattern then..... If I had a nickel for every time I heard this, I'd have a ****load of nickels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If I had a nickel for every time I heard this, I'd have a ****load of nickels He is right to an extent. There is no PV or 1040 HP north of the border, there really isn't anything to keep this from being inland, especially with the PNA state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 He is right to an extent. There is no PV or 1040 HP north of the border, there really isn't anything to keep this from being inland, especially with the PNA state. I didn't say that he was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 here are the srefs , appears they are all on the warm track. Suspect the gfs had some feedback issues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ETA 5 still manages to track the storm over the benchmark. That model never, ever fails to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 While it will most likely wind up rain in the city, I heard the exact same arguments about how it couldn't snow in the cities a few days before January 26th. People said forget about getting snow on the coast, the setup is terrible. I believe most of us wound up with between 15 and 20 inches. Except you are failing to differentiate the differences at H5 for that setup. A large north atlantic low preventing a strong Canadian HP from sliding out to sea, along with a strong area of confluence and a huge polar vortex were present, none of which are in place this time around. The setup is horrid. I argued strongly in favor of a snowstorm days in advance of Jan 26th, such is not the case this time around for the reasons just mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ETA 5 still manages to track the storm over the benchmark. That model never, ever fails to deliver. Its days are numbered, the eta's are being retired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Here are a better look at the SREF's - They look like the GGEM and are definitly south of the Euro. By the way, repeating what HPC says doesn't add anything to the forum. Many mets on the New England forum have given sound reasoing why they believe the Euro might be wrong and stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Except you are failing to differentiate the differences at H5 for that setup. A large north atlantic low preventing a strong Canadian HP from sliding out to sea, along with a strong area of confluence and a huge polar vortex were present, none of which are in place this time around. The setup is horrid. I argued strongly in favor of a snowstorm days in advance of Jan 26th, such is not the case this time around for the reasons just mentioned. Lol the number one argument against snow for the 26th was the high sliding off the coast and you're telling me that we had that working in our favor at this time frame? Btw I don't think it will snow. I just hate when people call storms 3+ days out and act like we can already conduct a case study on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Lol the number one argument against snow for the 26th was the high sliding off the coast and you're telling me that we had that working in our favor at this time frame? Btw I don't think it will snow. I just hate when people call storms 3+ days out and act like we can already conduct a case study on it. People have major short memory. The overwhelming majority of mets and quality posters were saying Jan. 26th was going to be rain and inland because of the high sliding out to sea. Mets and some posters were barking that it was a terrible pattern and we have never gotten a big snow storm with a high sliding off the coast. Not until the Euro started showing a snow event, did these people back off. Dont want to post names but trust me all the highest quality posters and mets did not think Jan. 26th had a shot. Friday will most likely be a rain event for the coast, but not because the euro shows it as an inland cutter, The euro has been super inconsistent this year. Would not surprise me if euro loses the idea of a strong southern shorwave and becomes weaker and weaker, thus the low not cutting so far west. Storms in this range can change dramatically. Until a storm is inside of 36 hours, nothing is set in stone. Just 2 days ago, yesterday's storm was a rain and north storm slaming SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Lol the number one argument against snow for the 26th was the high sliding off the coast and you're telling me that we had that working in our favor at this time frame? Btw I don't think it will snow. I just hate when people call storms 3+ days out and act like we can already conduct a case study on it. I was not one of the people arguing for the rain, I was one of few calling for snow. Regardless what someone argues/advocates is not indicative of what is actually happening or what does indeed unfold. There was a large atlantic low, almost like a psuedo 50/50, which prevented the HP from sliding out to sea. Also a large polar vortex and strong confluence to the north of us preventing an interior solution, prohibiting WAA, and fundamental in advecting cold air into the region. This time around there is no large Atlantic low needed to prevent the HP from sliding out to sea, no large polar vortex, no strong confluence....so there is no basis in an argument going against the majority of modeling this time around, like there was on Jan 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Unfortuantly by spliting us away from Philly we have lost alot of quality posters and mets. There is nothing wrong with the posts in this thread. There is a discussion going on. It is the posts like this that are annoying and pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 People have major short memory. The overwhelming majority of mets and quality posters were saying Jan. 26th was going to be rain and inland because of the high sliding out to sea. Mets and some posters were barking that it was a terrible pattern and we have never gotten a big snow storm with a high sliding off the coast. Not until the Euro started showing a snow event, did these people back off. Dont want to post names but trust me all the highest quality posters and mets did not think Jan. 26th had a shot. Friday will most likely be a rain event for the coast, but not because the euro shows it as an inland cutter, The euro has been super inconsistent this year. Would not surprise me if euro loses the idea of a strong southern shorwave and becomes weaker and weaker, thus the low not cutting so far west. Storms in this range can change dramatically. Until a storm is inside of 36 hours, nothing is set in stone. Just 2 days ago, yesterday's storm was a rain and north storm slaming SNE. For the record (pat on back) I never waivered off that being a major snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I was not one of the people arguing for the rain, I was one of few calling for snow. Regardless what someone argues/advocates is not indicative of what is actually happening or what does indeed unfold. There was a large atlantic low, almost like a psuedo 50/50, which prevented the HP from sliding out to sea. Also a large polar vortex and strong confluence to the north of us preventing an interior solution, prohibiting WAA, and fundamental in advecting cold air into the region. This time around there is no large Atlantic low needed to prevent the HP from sliding out to sea, no large polar vortex, no strong confluence....so there is no basis in an argument going against the majority of modeling this time around, like there was on Jan 26. I dont know about that. But what I remember, the high DID in fact slide east and into the Atlantic. The storm got delayed by 24-36 hours, allowing the "kicker low" in the midwest to come east, and moving the Atlantic high far enough to not influence our area. Then it allowed for a new high to build in coming down from the northern plains and voila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 There is nothing wrong with the posts in this thread. There is a discussion going on. It is the posts like this that are annoying and pointless. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 For the record (pat on back) I never waivered off that being a major snow storm. I never did either... But this one looks wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I never did either... But this one looks wet you and trials were all over that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I dont know about that. But what I remember, the high DID in fact slide east and into the Atlantic. The storm got delayed by 24-36 hours, allowing the "kicker low" in the midwest to come east, and moving the Atlantic high far enough to not influence our area. Then it allowed for a new high to build in coming down from the northern plains and voila. Yessir, and the huge polar vortex was pivotal in establishing this area of confluence and new HP. It was for this reason that arguing against the models had some validity, because meteorology tells us that the surface low will not cut into the area of greatest resistance. If such features were present this time around, I could agree with the people who are holding out hope and going against the majority of modeling, but such is not the case. There is no sound meteorological evidence supporting their claims. The best we can pull off in this setup is a progressive wave with some stale cold air remaining to provide some areas well N and W of the city with some snow. But with no HP, the surge of warmth will be strong and uninhibited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 For the record (pat on back) I never waivered off that being a major snow storm. And I agreed also. John recognized us all for our efforts that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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