Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM is a cutter a la EURO. GGEM is NOT a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Seems more reasonable based on the setup at H5. Remember it is a pattern and not a model run that is indicative of whether or not it snows. H5 depiction changes over time just like surface depictions do. If what was shown at 4 days at H5 verified every time we would have less than 10 inches of snow for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM is NOT a cutter. Yeah it is...it cuts from Long Island to the Gulf of Maine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GEFS mean is warmer than the OP. Need to see the individuals for any potential members skewing the mean and making it too warm or maybe to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Sometimes I look and just do not get what folks are looking at. There is no sharp trough here. The flow is almost flat, definitely progressive. The low deepens VERY slowly. And ther northern stream feature streaks out ahead dragging the nose of the next arctic HP e-ward toward the Lakes and then New England and that northern stream feature becomes almost a pseudo 50/50. Why would this cut to the left? I see NO justicification for it. King EC will cave to the GFS--watch!! WX/PT All good points, however, without good blocking and a -AO/-NAO in place, it will be hard to work a bunch of cold air down to the coast. Yes the nation is dominated by zonal flow, but will there be enough cold air in place? Another oddity is that the Euro has full support from its ensembles, they take the low from Indiana to Pittsburgh, to Albany then up to Maine. Perhaps the entire euro camp is over amplifying this thing, but seeing the euro ensemble agree whole heartedly with the operational is not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 FWIW - Henry "Accuweather Pro" is going with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Here is the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GEFS mean is warmer than the OP. Need to see the individuals for any potential members skewing the mean and making it too warm or maybe to cold. checked the mslp spag plots and there appears to be 3 amped up members that have an inland track. The rest seem to more or less follow the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 checked the mslp spag plots and there appears to be 3 amped up members that have an inland track. The rest seem to more or less follow the operational. thanks for the 411. Not gonna pay attention to anything really this far out. Its more likely than not that this event is wet, not white, but everything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Sometimes I look and just do not get what folks are looking at. There is no sharp trough here. The flow is almost flat, definitely progressive. The low deepens VERY slowly. And ther northern stream feature streaks out ahead dragging the nose of the next arctic HP e-ward toward the Lakes and then New England and that northern stream feature becomes almost a pseudo 50/50. Why would this cut to the left? I see NO justicification for it. King EC will cave to the GFS--watch!! WX/PT The GFS has been better than the Euro this year, especially in the midrange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z ECMWF will be huge. I doubt it will flop as far as the NAM/GFS camp, but I doubt it will continue to cut as far northwest..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah it is...it cuts from Long Island to the Gulf of Maine... lol its all a matter of perspective, William Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 H5 depiction changes over time just like surface depictions do. If what was shown at 4 days at H5 verified every time we would have less than 10 inches of snow for the year. Yea the intricate details do, however when every model indicates the big features such as a block, polar vortex, +PNA, and strong Canadian HP will not be present, it is apparent the pattern is not supportive of snows, and these larger components of the setup at H5 are less variable within 5 days. For instance the pattern on Dec 26th at H5 was supportive of snows because such elements as blocking and a large ridge out west were present, but how each individual model run handled these features altered its solution from a MECS to OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The GFS has been better than the Euro this year, especially in the midrange. Ehh maybe on some storms. For instance the EURO was first to show this past storm as being squashed under the confluence and providing some snow to the northeast, while the GFS had a much further north and warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Pna continues to be a problem. We got lucky yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Pna continues to be a problem. We got lucky yesterday. Yep and no blocking, but not all hope is lost. Some indications that things might improve as we progress into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z Euro is nearly a carbon copy of the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z Euro is nearly a carbon copy of the 0z run Yes euro is over cincy at hr 66...prob a wet snowstorm for chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 over pitt at 72 hrs...temps in the mid 40's i-95 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 992 over pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 992 over pittsburgh Lol, I have to admit that I'm enjoying this EC vs GFS battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Crazy differences bettwen euro/ukie/jma and gfs/ggem/nam/gefs for a storm only 72 hours out. Remarkable. Here is 12z Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 EC DAY 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 hr 78 low is over albany.....big hit for detroit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ehh maybe on some storms. For instance the EURO was first to show this past storm as being squashed under the confluence and providing some snow to the northeast, while the GFS had a much further north and warmer solution. Yeah, and the ensembles of both models have been better than the OP runs. I guess it depends on the set ups as to which model performs better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z ECMWF is NOT good for those along I-95 and even not good for those along the coastal plain to a couple hundred miles inland. should be a fun trip forecasting the next few days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well since this never was a snowstorm for NYC, mind as well root for the strong WAA and higher temps...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 everyone from OK to SD to IA to CHI to DET to the deep south to NYC CT have gotten big snow dumps so far this winter and its not letting up. to say we dont have a shot at another one is far fetched. those big name mets who called for the end of winter couple weeks ago are out in left field now. granted this one will be warm for the EC cities, but the parade of storms keep coming. all it takes is is a slight improvement in the PNA or NAO with the right timing on ANY of the storms and we are game. we will flucuate from warm days to cold days with chances of precip at a HIGH. i certainly wont write winter off this year til beg of APR. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 everyone from OK to SD to IA to CHI to DET to the deep south to NYC CT have gotten big snow dumps so far this winter and its not letting up. to say we dont have a shot at another one is far fetched. those big name mets who called for the end of winter couple weeks ago are out in left field now. granted this one will be warm for the EC cities, but the parade of storms keep coming. all it takes is is a slight improvement in the PNA or NAO with the right timing on ANY of the storms and we are game. we will flucuate from warm days to cold days with chances of precip at a HIGH. i certainly wont write winter off this year til beg of APR. lol. Tax Day is the cut off here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.