bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm not suprised the Euro is warm, its been on the warm side of guidance all winter. These bowling ball lows never seem to work well anyway. If only that SE ridge was gone, this would be a beautiful setup. Not really. Maybe with some higher hgts over Greenland, some sort of NEG NAO, maybe a positive PNA then one could say that. In this pattern a cutter is inevitable until changes occur aloft. The setup at H5 is horrid. But you bring up a good point. These storms are important in the respect that they convolute the pattern up north, and bring about some changes. It is possible that we could revert back to a more favorable pattern with blocking like we saw earlier in the winter if these interior storms alter the setup at H5. I think chances are good that the pattern will become more supportive past March 3rd. I agree with those calling for increased blocking, -EPO, neutral/pos PNA, etc. I think there is an increased chance for a March snowstorm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 While everybody is watching the heavy snow just missing us to our south, 00Z GFS tonight has again trended south and east and takes the Friday low to just south of LI and then ne over Cape Cod and on out. What causes this to happen and needs to be watched is a s/w moving e-ward across Canada that brings the nose of cold hp e-ward into the Great Lakes and toward New England helping to supress this storm to our south and supply some cold air. Though it is still warm enough for rain in the cities and at the coast, the r/s line sets up over NJ and se NY State and really not that far to our nw. Only a small shift further south and east and there would be snow all the way to the coast. In addition, the 00Z GGEM has continued its tracking of this storm to our south and east and is mainly a snowstorm with some rain or a mix only at the start. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think it's telling that the GGEM and GFS both trended a little weaker with the northern stream shortwave over eastern Canada, and that the GFS ensembles are much warmer and further west than the operational GFS. In any case, snow is unlikely in this scenario for the metro NYC area (aside from areas far NW like Orange County) given the warm air aloft in place ahead of the system. I think a compromise of the GFS/Canadian and ECMWF is the most likely scenario - which would still mean rain for nearly all of the NYC metro area, but with temps holding in the mid-upper 40s in NYC on Fri instead of shooting well into the 50s. While everybody is watching the heavy snow just missing us to our south, 00Z GFS tonight has again trended south and east and takes the Friday low to just south of LI and then ne over Cape Cod and on out. What causes this to happen and needs to be watched is a s/w moving e-ward across Canada that brings the nose of cold hp e-ward into the Great Lakes and toward New England helping to supress this storm to our south and supply some cold air. Though it is still warm enough for rain in the cities and at the coast, the r/s line sets up over NJ and se NY State and really not that far to our nw. Only a small shift further south and east and there would be snow all the way to the coast. In addition, the 00Z GGEM has continued its tracking of this storm to our south and east and is mainly a snowstorm with some rain or a mix only at the start. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think it's telling that the GGEM and GFS both trended a little weaker with the northern stream shortwave over eastern Canada, and that the GFS ensembles are much warmer and further west than the operational GFS. In any case, snow is unlikely in this scenario for the metro NYC area (aside from areas far NW like Orange County) given the warm air aloft in place ahead of the system. I think a compromise of the GFS/Canadian and ECMWF is the most likely scenario - which would still mean rain for nearly all of the NYC metro area, but with temps holding in the mid-upper 40s in NYC on Fri instead of shooting well into the 50s. What does the 0z ECM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 What does the 0z ECM show? Primary low into Ohio, temps surge into the upper 40s. This will not be a snowstorm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Primary low into Ohio, temps surge into the upper 40s. This will not be a snowstorm for NYC. Yeah the set-up looks pretty putrid with the -PNA and little blocking on the Atlantic side. Looks as if all the cold air stays behind the storm. I'm hoping this sets up for a good threat around March 1st, however. You know the old rule: first storm north, second storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah the set-up looks pretty putrid with the -PNA and little blocking on the Atlantic side. Looks as if all the cold air stays behind the storm. I'm hoping this sets up for a good threat around March 1st, however. You know the old rule: first storm north, second storm south. it works, just take a look at today's storm... the GFS does bring numerous threats to the NE but they're mostly rain, but there's plenty of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 While everybody is watching the heavy snow just missing us to our south, 00Z GFS tonight has again trended south and east and takes the Friday low to just south of LI and then ne over Cape Cod and on out. What causes this to happen and needs to be watched is a s/w moving e-ward across Canada that brings the nose of cold hp e-ward into the Great Lakes and toward New England helping to supress this storm to our south and supply some cold air. Though it is still warm enough for rain in the cities and at the coast, the r/s line sets up over NJ and se NY State and really not that far to our nw. Only a small shift further south and east and there would be snow all the way to the coast. In addition, the 00Z GGEM has continued its tracking of this storm to our south and east and is mainly a snowstorm with some rain or a mix only at the start. WX/PT That explains the 2 stars on your blog for 24 -25th- BTW Alan Kasper this morning has only mentioned rain Friday for all of NJ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 6z GFS still a pretty good snowstorm for Litchfield County, northern Fairfield County, and NW Jersey Thursday / Friday. 9z SREF is a somewhat warmer solution. With even the coldest guidance looking like rain for NYC, it doesnt look good...but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 That explains the 2 stars on your blog for 24 -25th- BTW Alan Kasper this morning has only mentioned rain Friday for all of NJ......... I love Alan. He's been great for many years but he has been utterly putrid this winter. Do I think it still rains, yeah, but Alan saying so is not saying much not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 One interesting note from the analogs, they don't really support a "bowling ball" scenario track. Most of the snow events listed brought snows well up into northern New England. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z NAM shifted east. looks more similar to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think shifted south is a more accurate call. It also is wetter for most of the area, let's all remember this is still the NAM at its terrible range. 06z NAM 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z NAM shifted east. looks more similar to the gfs. Not surprising. The general February storm track and circulation usually does not support a track towards the Great Lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nobody likes what the gfs has been offering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nobody likes what the gfs has been offering? 3-6 inch snow event on 12z GFS. Unless the mid levels are warm. surface is cold and 850s are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The GFS looks like it tries to an extend an arm from the high pressure to our west toward us as the storm comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nobody likes what the gfs has been offering? I'm really surprised that this thread isn't alot more active. The trend continues to be further and further south and east. 12Z GFS run, low tracks to off Delmarva--almost to Hatteras and 850s are good for the entire NYC Metro region. What more could you want? Wake up! This looks like a snowstorm folks. At least a mix changing to all snow with accumulations likely. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 surface is close to freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think most people were assuming the GFS would cave to the Euro today. I for one thought it would be the other way around. We await to see what the Euro has to offer but if anything, the GFS just moved even further away from the Euro. I've been spending alot of time today on the New England thread because its alot more active up there at the moment and they have quite a few good mets. Most of them are shocked by the 12z GFS. 0.75"+ frozen, sign me up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looking at this sounding at hour 78, WAA is taking place at 850-700, and there is a warm notch 950-1000mb. At hour 84 the warm layer is still there at 950-1000mb. It will be a sloppy mix for the coast. This however will change many times, and is not that far off from a pure snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Not surprising. The general February storm track and circulation usually does not support a track towards the Great Lakes... At no time of year is the general storm track more supressed than right around now. Based just on climatology there was a lot of support for this thing to trend SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looking at this sounding at hour 78, WAA is taking place at 850-700, and there is a warm notch 950-1000mb. At hour 84 the warm layer is still there at 950-1000mb. It will be a sloppy mix for the coast. It won't be anything since it's still 78+ hours out. People get burned when they speak in absolutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think most people were assuming the GFS would cave to the Euro today. I for one thought it would be the other way around. We await to see what the Euro has to offer but if anything, the GFS just moved even further away from the Euro. I've been spending alot of time today on the New England thread because its alot more active up there at the moment and they have quite a few good mets. Most of them are shocked by the 12z GFS. 0.75"+ frozen, sign me up for that Sometimes I look and just do not get what folks are looking at. There is no sharp trough here. The flow is almost flat, definitely progressive. The low deepens VERY slowly. And ther northern stream feature streaks out ahead dragging the nose of the next arctic HP e-ward toward the Lakes and then New England and that northern stream feature becomes almost a pseudo 50/50. Why would this cut to the left? I see NO justicification for it. King EC will cave to the GFS--watch!! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hey, I'm still paying attention. Most gave up on this only because of the EURO depiction. The trends today are looking good for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I still think a compromise between the extremes of the GFS and ECMWF is in order. Yes, the flow is relatively flat and progressive, but the fact that there is a highly positive tilt trough from near Manitoba to off the Oregon coast will tend to cause height rises over the SE US and push the Fri system further north. Sometimes I look and just do not get what folks are looking at. There is no sharp trough here. The flow is almost flat, definitely progressive. The low deepens VERY slowly. And ther northern stream feature streaks out ahead dragging the nose of the next arctic HP e-ward toward the Lakes and then New England and that northern stream feature becomes almost a pseudo 50/50. Why would this cut to the left? I see NO justicification for it. King EC will cave to the GFS--watch!! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I still think a compromise between the extremes of the GFS and ECMWF is in order. Yes, the flow is relatively flat and progressive, but the fact that there is a highly positive tilt trough from near Manitoba to off the Oregon coast will tend to cause height rises over the SE US and push the Fri system further north. GGEM is a cutter a la EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If you are holding onto hope based off the 12z GFS you are putting a lot of faith in the fact that a piece of the elongated HP is strong enough over NE Canada to prevent the warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GGEM is a cutter a la EURO. Seems more reasonable based on the setup at H5. Remember it is a pattern and not a model run that is indicative of whether or not it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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