A-L-E-X Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think this thread will become extremely busy if the euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Plus, something to dream about on the long range GFS...say goodbye to that nasty SE ridge and welcome this baby.....it's a miss at this range but its another system to watch. Ridge starts to rebound throught the Mississippi valley at the tail end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It looks like the SE Ridge goes bye bye in the March 3-6 range-- the analogs (specifically March 1956) supports this, the AO looks like it might go negative towards the end of this period, and it's mentioned by Don S also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It looks like the SE Ridge goes bye bye in the March 3-6 range-- the analogs (specifically March 1956) supports this, the AO looks like it might go negative towards the end of this period, and it's mentioned by Don S also. Alex, we gotta get the block (neg NAO AND the AO), before we can get March 1956. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Alex, we gotta get the block (neg NAO AND the AO), before we can get March 1956. Yes, which was why I was strangely happy the AO was so positive on March 3, 1956, because it means the same kind of flip happened back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Interesting that the 12Z canadian leaned this way. Still too far out/ too much spread, but this is a good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is not a setup that favors a snow event for the NYC area, in no way shape or form. Unlike other unfavorable setups at H5 that have produced snow this event has no comparisons. There is no strong polar vortex, no Canadian hp, no strong confluence, and no large +PNA out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If it wasn't for that pesky SE ridge, this thing would have a much a better chance. That ridge is preventing the trough from going negative. FWIW, virtually no support on the latest analogs for a snow storm out to 120hrs. Huh? You don't want the trough to go negative in this pattern because you would get strong WAA and a storm cutting to our west. The only time a negative trough is favorable is when the h5 pattern is supportive with a large Canadian high and 50/50 block. In this pattern if the trough goes negative, we are going to toast even more. Need the low to remain progressive and flat, even then I still think it will be to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Just because the Canadian has a LP offshore, does not mean it is a snow event, except for maybe areas well N and W of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Just because the Canadian has a LP offshore, does not mean it is a snow event, except for maybe areas well N and W of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Euro still looks awful, high pressure is sliding offshore at 78 hours and the surface low is over Northeast Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sorry if I came off as extremely anti-snow, such is not the case. I am actually a snow lover and try to be as optimistic as possible, but I won't skew the facts. If there is something in the pattern that gives me reason to believe that snow might occur, even with an overall unfavorable setup, I would hold out hope. This was the case for Jan 26 when although overall the h5 pattern was not supportive, I saw some factors that were encouraging, and called for a snowstorm. Unfortunately for Friday this is not the case. There is not anything remotely supportive about this pattern that could allow me to argue in favor of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you guys are tracking the wrong event...the one after that is probably a better chance than 2/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 oooooh sorry, rain to possibly some snow at the end. Also the Canadian has a HP to our north, thats the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 oooooh sorry, rain to possibly some snow at the end. Also the Canadian has a HP to our north, thats the difference. Anyway, the shortwave is much better positioned and weaker. The euro is driving this thing inland with a stronger shortwave which pumps up the SE ridge heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 John I could have just as easily posted hrs 96 and 102 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Surface low over Buffalo on the 96 hr 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 oooooh sorry, rain to possibly some snow at the end. Also the Canadian has a HP to our north, thats the difference. I was just about to mention the banana high look, although not terribly strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You're probably right though..especially near the coast...the surface is likely torching in that setup. Regardless of what the model may show, synoptically..the setup absolutely stinks. There is little support for snow. Edit...speak of the devil, just looked at the surface..it's just too warm for snow most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 50 degrees and warm sectored at 18z Friday on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anyway, the shortwave is much better positioned and weaker. The euro is driving this thing inland with a stronger shortwave which pumps up the SE ridge heights. You must be kidding me, did you make out poorly for last nights snow event? You sound bitter... The WAA ahead to LP is substantial and the depth of the warming is significant. Winds out of the SW ahead of the event on the Canadian warm the surface greatly. That solution in no way, shape, or form looks conducive for significant snows. Like I said verbatim in the city it would probably be rain, and once the column eventually overcame the warming and cooled, some snow, but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You must be kidding me, did you make out poorly for last nights snow event? You sound bitter... The WAA ahead to LP is substantial and the depth of the warming is significant. Winds out of the SW ahead of the event on the Canadian warm the surface greatly. That solution in no way, shape, or form looks conducive for significant snows. Like I said verbatim in the city it would probably be rain, and once the column eventually overcame the warming and cooled, some snow, but nothing significant. See my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Cold front passes at 108-114 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 50 degrees and warm sectored at 18z Friday on the Euro Yea I was going to say earlier that there is a greater chance of temperatures exceeding 50 degrees on Friday then us seeing snow. And I agree with your assessment that the pattern is not supportive of snow on Friday. But not all hope is lost, I think a few more opportunities remain. Still thinking we get a good storm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I thought this threat was a joke a few days ago (and it still might be), but it keeps haging on. I agree with you guys though, the setup sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 See my post above. Just saw it sorry. But seriously how did you make out last night? 1-3? Secondly a bit off topic but the forecasts down here are absurd. In my opinion seems like a widespread 3-6 event with someone in Western MD going to see 7-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 anything for the Feb 28-March 1 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 anything for the Feb 28-March 1 event? Yeah 984 over Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah 984 over Detroit. JMA has a much more southern solution as does the GFS. Euro is outlier at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm not suprised the Euro is warm, its been on the warm side of guidance all winter. These bowling ball lows never seem to work well anyway. If only that SE ridge was gone, this would be a beautiful setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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