nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It doesn't seem bad considering how easily we've been getting snow in recent winters, but the big snows of earlier this winter certainly weren't by chance; we had a phenomenal, record breaking pattern in place in the Arctic and north atlantic, then the Pacific saved us from torching Jan 15-Feb 10. NYC has not seen much snow since the pattern change a few weeks ago, and this is within our snowiest period climatologically. As we move forward, it gets more and more difficult to get significant snows, especially by March 10th and beyond. Once we reach March 15th, even if the pattern heads back to favorable, the chances of it producing a major or even significant snow event along the coast are pretty slim. I mean look at how many times we've seen a significant snowstorm (5"+) after March 15th, since 1990. Only 1996 and 2003 (this is for NYC). Like I said, I do think we'll see one more decent snow, possibly within this March 15th-early April time frame, but not going to touch 1995-96 IMO. Yes we have to remember: NYC is supposed to average one 12" snowstorm about every two years, not every month. We've been getting large snowstorms and snowfall inconsistent with our climo due to the record-breaking -NAO/-AO block. But that's gone. I still think Central Park has a chance to break the record because I believe the strong cutter next Monday resets the pattern to -NAO, which should stick around longer than what models show. That next impulse in the Plains may be the first step towards catching 95-96, or at least 47-48. We've seen that oftentimes the pattern changes in March with the shorter wavelengths: we were in a mediocre pattern in February 2004 but saw a solid March 2004. Ditto in 1956 and 1960 with the record-breaking KU events. What do you think the chances are for a good snowstorm around 3/3, Tom? That's the next period that looks +PNA/-NAO, right? I do feel that NYC is overdo for a good March. In the 1950s and 1960s, March was often one the snowiest parts of the winter with the great 1956, 1958, 1960, and 1967 stretches. Some of the GFS superensemble analogs have been showing a lot of dates from 1967, which was a blockbuster March here. I think the recent CME and weakening of the Niña may mean the blocking comes back in earnest around 3/10, but the question remains: is it too late for the coastal plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 looks like the 6z GFS continues to march northward with each run to align more with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nzucker, you sure about that one 12 inch storm every 2 years? That sounds extremely generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 looks like the 6z GFS continues to march northward with each run to align more with the euro. shocker. GFS is a miserable model with a -PNA and +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NYC averages a 12"+ storm once every 4.3 years. 33 winters since 1869 have had a 12"+ storm. http://www.erh.noaa....otplussnow.html Since 1994, 9 winters have had a 12"+ storm, or once every 2 winters. Nzucker, you sure about that one 12 inch storm every 2 years? That sounds extremely generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We'll have to watch and see on later runs just how far north the warm sector gets. With such a strong LLJ forecast,any low topped convection that is able to form would have the potential to mix down stronger winds to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How high do the dew points/PWV get? Looks like there will be strong wind shear, I wonder if we will have a chance at seeing some tornadic activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 How strong do the winds look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 March 2003: 5.5" William, you should link March and April together, because the pattern usually spills over into the beginning of April. April 2003 was the best here since 1996 (and actually better here than 1996.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nzucker, you sure about that one 12 inch storm every 2 years? That sounds extremely generous. Its a product of the generous pattern we've been for the last decade plus. It should be something like an 8 inch snowfall every other year or a 16 inch snowfall every 10 years-- obviously that's not what's been happening lately lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Upton recorded 4 snowy (i.e. 10"+ March's) in the last 10 years (in '01, '04, '05, and '09)....though it is kind of difficult to count the '09 one as all the action took place on the first 2 days of the month. March 2001: 19" March 2004: 11" March 2005: 16" March 2009: 14.8" The 2001 March basically occured on only a few days as well, and was confined to E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yes we have to remember: NYC is supposed to average one 12" snowstorm about every two years, not every month. We've been getting large snowstorms and snowfall inconsistent with our climo due to the record-breaking -NAO/-AO block. But that's gone. I still think Central Park has a chance to break the record because I believe the strong cutter next Monday resets the pattern to -NAO, which should stick around longer than what models show. That next impulse in the Plains may be the first step towards catching 95-96, or at least 47-48. We've seen that oftentimes the pattern changes in March with the shorter wavelengths: we were in a mediocre pattern in February 2004 but saw a solid March 2004. Ditto in 1956 and 1960 with the record-breaking KU events. What do you think the chances are for a good snowstorm around 3/3, Tom? That's the next period that looks +PNA/-NAO, right? I do feel that NYC is overdo for a good March. In the 1950s and 1960s, March was often one the snowiest parts of the winter with the great 1956, 1958, 1960, and 1967 stretches. Some of the GFS superensemble analogs have been showing a lot of dates from 1967, which was a blockbuster March here. I think the recent CME and weakening of the Niña may mean the blocking comes back in earnest around 3/10, but the question remains: is it too late for the coastal plain? Its not too late until around the middle of April. 1967 saw a 10" snowfall in NYC on March 19th. 1956 saw a 26" snowfall on Long Island on the same date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FWIW the 12z GFS op actually shifted ever so slightly back southward... 6z GFS 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro/CMC/UKMET continue further north with the warm sector than the American guidance for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 euro really torches us monday before that next front comes through.. 850 temps get pretty close to 12C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 euro really torches us monday before that next front comes through.. 850 temps get pretty close to 12C. Sounds like a lot of junk in the warm sector though with clouds and showers holding temps in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Sounds like a lot of junk in the warm sector though with clouds and showers holding temps in the 50s. yea.. obviously it's not ideal conditions to reach full potential of that 850 temp, but if we can break the skies for a little bit, then we should easily be able to get into the 60's I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 CMC shifted way north 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yes we have to remember: NYC is supposed to average one 12" snowstorm about every two years, not every month. We've been getting large snowstorms and snowfall inconsistent with our climo due to the record-breaking -NAO/-AO block. But that's gone. I still think Central Park has a chance to break the record because I believe the strong cutter next Monday resets the pattern to -NAO, which should stick around longer than what models show. That next impulse in the Plains may be the first step towards catching 95-96, or at least 47-48. We've seen that oftentimes the pattern changes in March with the shorter wavelengths: we were in a mediocre pattern in February 2004 but saw a solid March 2004. Ditto in 1956 and 1960 with the record-breaking KU events. What do you think the chances are for a good snowstorm around 3/3, Tom? That's the next period that looks +PNA/-NAO, right? I do feel that NYC is overdo for a good March. In the 1950s and 1960s, March was often one the snowiest parts of the winter with the great 1956, 1958, 1960, and 1967 stretches. Some of the GFS superensemble analogs have been showing a lot of dates from 1967, which was a blockbuster March here. I think the recent CME and weakening of the Niña may mean the blocking comes back in earnest around 3/10, but the question remains: is it too late for the coastal plain? Nate -- I'd be surprised if next week's cutter resets the -NAO. It may pump heights briefly in the north atlantic, but that's not going to do much as long as its transient. IMO we're locked into a +NAO/AO regime for the forseeable future, possibly into mid March. So the 3/3 period does not look conducive to me; I'm talking the I-95 corridor here, the interior Northeast may see good snows over the next couple weeks. But it's apparent that the pattern supporting VA cape bombing lows ended several weeks ago; now we're left with a strong nina regime similar to the one we experienced the entire 2007-08 winter, with unfavorable signals on virtually all fronts (tropical, pacific, atlantic, arctic). It was a phenomenal run of winter Dec-Jan, and the snow cover lasting nearly two months was remarkable. Hopefully we can get the pattern to reload a little bit for one more good snow in mid to late March. Until that time frame, I'd be surprised if NYC/coast saw more than 1" or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 March 2003: 5.5" William, you should link March and April together, because the pattern usually spills over into the beginning of April. April 2003 was the best here since 1996 (and actually better here than 1996.) April 2003 also had 5.5" of snow at Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 March 2001: 19" The 2001 March basically occured on only a few days as well, and was confined to E LI. What constitutes Eastern Long Island has never been well defined. I consider my home to be on north central L.I. and measured over 13" of snow from the Storm That Shall Not Be Named, i.e. 3/5/2001...the extreme East End saw considerably less. Board member NorthShoreWx fearlessly reevaluated the storm...complete with a snowfall map and PNS...and per his permission I'll link you to it... http://www.northshor...om/20010305.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 What constitutes Eastern Long Island has never been well defined. I consider my home to be on north central L.I. and measured over 13" of snow from the Storm That Shall Not Be Named, i.e. 3/5/2001...the extreme East End saw considerably less. Board member NorthShoreWx fearlessly reevaluated the storm...complete with a snowfall map and PNS...and per his permission I'll link you to it... http://www.northshor...om/20010305.asp William, I would consider "east end" to refer to anything east of Riverhead. I had a question-- was there a really large snowfall gradient in the March 2001 storm? I remember Bridgeport actually did get quite a bit of snow while LGA barely got advisory criteria. How far apart are they, 15 miles? That storm actually wasnt all that far from delivering warning snow to parts of NYC-- I'm only 4 miles from the Queens line and I got 5 inches of snow. I believe JFK got more than LGA because the snow was backing in from the east. Somewhat like what happened in April 1996. I wonder if the Jersey shore got significant amounts in March 2001 like they did in April 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 William, I would consider "east end" to refer to anything east of Riverhead. I had a question-- was there a really large snowfall gradient in the March 2001 storm? I remember Bridgeport actually did get quite a bit of snow while LGA barely got advisory criteria. How far apart are they, 15 miles? That storm actually wasnt all that far from delivering warning snow to parts of NYC-- I'm only 4 miles from the Queens line and I got 5 inches of snow. I believe JFK got more than LGA because the snow was backing in from the east. Somewhat like what happened in April 1996. I wonder if the Jersey shore got significant amounts in March 2001 like they did in April 1996? Anything east of Riverhead is the Twin Forks. If you were to bisect the Island (or at least Nassau and Suffolk) the dividing line wouldn't be too far from Upton... There is a snowfall map and a PNS for 3/5/01 in the linked article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I had a question-- was there a really large snowfall gradient in the March 2001 storm? I remember Bridgeport actually did get quite a bit of snow while LGA barely got advisory criteria. How far apart are they, 15 miles? Bridgeport and LGA are quite a bit more than 15 miles apart...actually 47.2 miles...I'm 15 miles from Bridgeport. The PNS says 9 inches for Bridgeport but that was probably not at the airport because most databases I check show that Sikorsky Airport had nothing but missing data that month...remember what I told you about not trusting the Bridgeport snowfall data because the averages were abnormally low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I wonder if the Jersey shore got significant amounts in March 2001 like they did in April 1996? E PA, Delaware and Jersey...3/5/01: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Anything east of Riverhead is the Twin Forks. If you were to bisect the Island (or at least Nassau and Suffolk) the dividing line wouldn't be too far from Upton... There is a snowfall map and a PNS for 3/5/01 in the linked article. William, as far as the airports are concerned..... would you consider Westhampton and Shirley to be eastern Long Island, Islip and Farmingdale to be central Long Island and JFK and LGA for "western Long Island" (geographically speaking Brooklyn and Queens are part of Long Island, as you know.) Also, I think of East End differently than Eastern Long Island-- East End to me means the extreme Eastern part of Long Island (which would be the twin forks) while Eastern Long Island is what I would call the eastern half of Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Bridgeport and LGA are quite a bit more than 15 miles apart...actually 47.2 miles...I'm 15 miles from Bridgeport. The PNS says 9 inches for Bridgeport but that was probably not at the airport because most databases I check show that Sikorsky Airport had nothing but missing data that month...remember what I told you about not trusting the Bridgeport snowfall data because the averages were abnormally low.... Wow, they are much further apart than I thought they were. For some reason I keep thinking Bridgeport is in extreme SW CT-- when it's clearly further east than that and closer to your longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 William, as far as the airports are concerned..... would you consider Westhampton and Shirley to be eastern Long Island, Islip and Farmingdale to be central Long Island and JFK and LGA for "western Long Island" (geographically speaking Brooklyn and Queens are part of Long Island, as you know.) Also, I think of East End differently than Eastern Long Island-- East End to me means the extreme Eastern part of Long Island (which would be the twin forks) while Eastern Long Island is what I would call the eastern half of Suffolk County. Westhampton: eastern Shirley: central Islip: central Farmingdale: western JFK and LGA: NYC All areas east of the town of Brookhaven are part of the East End...there are five towns that constitute this area...which I'll rename at a later date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Wow, they are much further apart than I thought they were. For some reason I keep thinking Bridgeport is in extreme SW CT-- when it's clearly further east than that and closer to your longitude. The first big CT city up Interstate 95 is Stamford...then Bridgeport, then New Haven...finally New London near the R.I. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The first big CT city up Interstate 95 is Stamford...then Bridgeport, then New Haven...finally New London near the R.I. border. New London is relatively small compared to the cities you just mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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