Mikehobbyst Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NYC area and LI: Looks like 8-12 inch event supported by the 6Z Model. Trending in the right direction for a major snowfall. -EPO does supoort the major snowfall, so do not laugh at this outcome for this Friday. I think the ECMWF will show possible MECS potential on this afternoon run and abandon the cutter which makes no sense in current and mid range pattern. East coast track is the correct forecast with surface features for Friday with the Arctic high influencing all of Canada with us on the eastern edge of the Arctic air bleeding in Thursday night. 6Z GFS makes very clear sense with the pattern at that time, not just a wish cast for snow. This can really happen and the chance is much greater than most think. We will probably have to suffer one cutter with rain,but that would be later and not in the early to mid range. Any blocking would give us a nice potential HECS pattern in the bag for the next few weeks, but we take what we get and if blocking comes back look out !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 why so conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 14 to 18 inches? That's way overkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 14 to 18 inches? That's way overkill. Yes, we need to save those inches for March 18-19, 2011 haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yes, we need to save those inches for March 18-19, 2011 haha. Chris L is calling for a big march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yeah why so debbie downer....12-16 with the early week snow and possibly 18-24 with the overrunning event. Looks like snowpack will be replenished until St Pattys Day when we rinse and repeat cycle. Honk honk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Very interesting developments on the 0z GFS..... strong southern energy streaming in from the PAC up through Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Drenching rainstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Drenching rainstorm... On what days? 2/25-26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On what days? 2/25-26? The 130-140 hour threat. Low goes up the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The 130-140 hour threat. Low goes up the apps Meh lol. Any sign of a building -NAO anytime soon? (Like maybe after that cutter?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Meh lol. Any sign of a building -NAO anytime soon? (Like maybe after that cutter?) Not really. The vort coming out of the sw was much stronger compared to 18z and without any blocking or a 50/50, thats going to be enough to WAA us to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not really. The vort coming out of the sw was much stronger compared to 18z and without any blocking or a 50/50, thats going to be enough to WAA us to rain One of the keys to getting the Friday storm to be colder is having more amplification from the second wave of the coming system. If that 2nd wave can amplify more, it will knock down heights on the East Coast and allow the next shortwave to pass south of us or directly over us, instead of tracking near the Apps. Although it looks like a long shot for a major snow, we could definitely have a snow to mix/ice to rain scenario if we get that amplification and thus have more cold air in place with less ridging at 500mb. The raging +NAO argues for more of a SWFE when it is combined with the -PNA; however, the fact that the +NAO includes a potent vortex over Baffin Island/Northern Quebec means we have lots of access to arctic air with a banana high attempting to form over Canada. To me, this looks like a great storm for the ski resorts in Northern New England, but NYC and NW suburbs especially, could see some mixing or front-end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html coastal towards the end, semi supported by the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Any word on the 00z ECMWF for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Any word on the 00z ECMWF for Friday? The 0z ECM is a disaster for this system....it goes from 996mb near Kansas City to 992mb near Cleveland, exits through NNE...mostly a rain event for the East Coast it would appear. Day 7 storm on the ECM is 994mb over the Illinois/Indiana border, another cutter with mostly rain for the East Coast. Chicago gets 1.14" QPF all snow from the first system, and may get something more from the second storm. Record-breaking winter from Chicago to Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 the low tracks south of LI as per the 6z GFS... we're getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 the low tracks south of LI as per the 6z GFS... we're getting there... It's a huge hit for NYC. Major snowstorm for sure...but it's the 6z GFS and not at all in agreement with the Euro. I still don't think this storm is all rain for all the east though....compromise might be best at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The 0z ECM is a disaster for this system....it goes from 996mb near Kansas City to 992mb near Cleveland, exits through NNE...mostly a rain event for the East Coast it would appear. Day 7 storm on the ECM is 994mb over the Illinois/Indiana border, another cutter with mostly rain for the East Coast. Chicago gets 1.14" QPF all snow from the first system, and may get something more from the second storm. Record-breaking winter from Chicago to Minneapolis. Our winter is pretty close to record breaking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW JB is going with the Euro... won't see this guy on this one I would lean towards the warmer/further north ECM, but I think it could be a major snow event for parts of New England, ski country. This storm was also supposed to be a rainy cutter, so we'll see what happens. As we've learned this season, 120 hours out is a long ways when you have fast flow in a Niña and complex interactions with the polar vortex over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If it wasn't for that pesky SE ridge, this thing would have a much a better chance. That ridge is preventing the trough from going negative. FWIW, virtually no support on the latest analogs for a snow storm out to 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I've been watching this little guy for a few days, and it's definitly been trending in the right direction for some time now (at least on GFS). I guess we'll see what happens, but it looks like something to keep an eye on at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I've been watching this little guy for a few days, and it's definitly been trending in the right direction for some time now (at least on GFS). I guess we'll see what happens, but it looks like something to keep an eye on at least. This is an Appalachians cutter, no two ways about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is an Appalachians cutter, no two ways about it. Well, now I know what the GEM shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The 12z NAM is further north and sharper with the S/W than the 06z GFS. Still quite a bit of spread on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anybody get a look at the 06z GFS 9-10 day range, if it verifies, its time to break out the row boats. Edit: It was on the 00z GFS as well but not as potent as it moved eastward. Looks like a major snow storm for parts of the midwest and ice for alot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12z gfs still has a coastal but too close to coast. Still have some time on this since it's 96 hours out, but without a cold high, we need this storm to bomb out way SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Slightly east shift/faster on 12Z GFS hr 102 as compared to 0Z hr 114 12Z - 0Z - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Canadian has major snow event on Friday. It caved to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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