uncle W Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 February 1948 and 1994 had a thaw with temperatures around 60...We just saw a 67 degree day...Does this mean we won't see a lot more snow?...Here are some years that had a second half of February torch and what followed... 2/23/1874...69 degrees...7.5" of snow 2/25...no snow in March... 2/25/1930...75 degrees...0.4" 2/26...trace of snow in March... 2/20/1939...69 degrees...6.9" of snow in March...3/9-3/13 2/15/1949...73 degrees...9.4" of snow 2/28...4.7" of snow in March... 2/16/1954...71 degrees...0.4" 3/31-4/1... 2/21/1953...67 degrees...0.9" 3/1-3/9 2/24/1961...65 degrees...1.1" 3/11... 2/25/1976...70 degrees...4.2" 3/9-10... 2/18/1981...68 degrees...8.6" 3/5 2/23/1985...75 degrees...0.2" 3/4 2/23/1990...65 degrees...3.1" 3/6...April snow... 2/22/1991...66 degrees...8.9" 2/26...0.2" in March... 2/27/1997...72 degrees...0.5" 3/10...April Fools Storm...T-4" It looks like 1874 and 1976 are the only strong la nina years...1985 was weak...1981 was a weak negative...1997 and 1961 were very weak...The rest were weak positive or el nino years... The AO is around neutral but forecast to rise extremely positive...The hope for another extremely negative ao this winter is running out of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The AO is supposed to be extremely positive Unc? What about that extreme blocking everyone was forecasting for the first week of March? BTW 1989-1990 is the standard for extreme turnarounds. We went from a heavy Thanksgiving snowstorm, to one of the coldest Decembers on record with nary a snowflake, to near record warm Jan and Feb, to an early March moderate snowstorm, to mid to upper 80s in the middle of March, to nearly an inch of snow in April lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The block is probably going to be here later than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The block is probably going to be here later than forecasted. I hope it doesnt come so late that it gives us a token light snowfall and then a cool and rainy Spring lol. That would be just like the 80s ans early 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 The AO is supposed to be extremely positive Unc? What about that extreme blocking everyone was forecasting for the first week of March? BTW 1989-1990 is the standard for extreme turnarounds. We went from a heavy Thanksgiving snowstorm, to one of the coldest Decembers on record with nary a snowflake, to near record warm Jan and Feb, to an early March moderate snowstorm, to mid to upper 80s in the middle of March, to nearly an inch of snow in April lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Unc, that sounds like it corresponds well with the warmup late next week. Is it supposed to trend downward starting around March 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I hope it doesnt come so late that it gives us a token light snowfall and then a cool and rainy Spring lol. That would be just like the 80s ans early 90s. Yeah, this has been my nightmare all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I hope it doesnt come so late that it gives us a token light snowfall and then a cool and rainy Spring lol. That would be just like the 80s ans early 90s. What we got to hope that it comes back before March 15-20th time frame, then we can stil get some snow around then, but as much as I hate to say this, I would not count on a ending like March 1956... Of course, I would love to be wrong because I am honking on that analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What we got to hope that it comes back before March 15-20th time frame, then we can stil get some snow around then, but as much as I hate to say this, I would not count on a ending like March 1956... Of course, I would love to be wrong because I am honking on that analog. Hell, it can give us a big snowfall as late as the first 10 days of April, but the chances of that happening arent all that great. Maybe the -PNA will relax in the mean time and neutralize the lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah, this has been my nightmare all along Yeah, this is what sucked so much about the late 80s early 90s winters-- we went from a mild winter to a cool spring, 1990 and 1992 for example. I'm just really glad we have so many great memories from December and January to cherish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What we got to hope that it comes back before March 15-20th time frame, then we can stil get some snow around then, but as much as I hate to say this, I would not count on a ending like March 1956... Of course, I would love to be wrong because I am honking on that analog. Chris, didnt we see something similar to this in 2003-04, when we went from a snowy and cold December and January to a mild February and then the blocking returned around the middle of March and we closed out strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Hell, it can give us a big snowfall as late as the first 10 days of April, but the chances of that happening arent all that great. Maybe the -PNA will relax in the mean time and neutralize the lack of blocking. IF the PNA can rise and the block get be average, then we got a shot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Chris, didnt we see something similar to this in 2003-04, when we went from a snowy and cold December and January to a mild February and then the blocking returned around the middle of March and we closed out strong? Yeah, We had two storms in March. March 17th 2004,5" from March 17th then March 18-19th had about 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 March 2nd 1956 the AO was +4.692...It fell to the minus column on 3/17 and a low of -1.444 on March 26th...It looks like a roller coaster ride for the ao and maybe we can squeak in a snowfall when it's not positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 March 2nd 1956 the AO was +4.692...It fell to the minus column on 3/17 and a low of -1.444 on March 26th...It looks like a roller coaster ride for the ao and maybe we can squeak in a snowfall when it's not positive... Wow, it was that posititve? That's good news, Uncle if we want a strong ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 March 2nd 1956 the AO was +4.692...It fell to the minus column on 3/17 and a low of -1.444 on March 26th...It looks like a roller coaster ride for the ao and maybe we can squeak in a snowfall when it's not positive... Wow, it was that posititve? That's good news, Uncle if we want a strong ending. Holy hell that was high! How high is this one progged to get? Did it look like to you it tries to fall after March 3rd? So this winter is actually acting like a strong la nina now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This makes sense on a wider scale. When it comes to the Northern Hemispheric pattern January-February-March are the most consistent months of the year. I think the correlation on above/below average temps is something like 65% in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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