Ryan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Based on what Scott said im assuming the 18z gfs is similar to the euro. Def discard those two in favor of the snowiest models based on the nams stellar track record this year Hahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 LOL at the 18z GFS.. I assume the QPF looks similar to the Euro? Or at least more like the Euro's? .20 qpf or so = weak the rev could fart .20 Liquid E (ky or course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I will be right back, will grab the labs equipment, take some temps. Well I walked over and on the top of a foot of snow on the roof outside my office in the shade where once a four foot drift was. Solid ice top to bottom, surface temps 27 iso all the way through. Not ripe anymore, good timing one more torch day would have decimated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well I walked over and on the top of a foot of snow on the roof outside my office in the shade where once a four foot drift was. Solid ice top to bottom, surface temps 27 iso all the way through. Not ripe anymore, good timing one more torch day would have decimated it. absolutely. if it was 42 degrees this afternoon... we would have lost more than either of the torch days. what a stick save today with the cold for snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 26.0/9. I need to give the dog a 90 minute walk but don't feel like braving the cold. Torches weaken us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 .20 qpf or so = weak the rev could fart .20 Liquid E (ky or course) 18z gfs seems like a good starting point two days out. Boston etc on the edge of .25 which can easily translate to 10" maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Messenger has been wishing winter away post after post and the outlooks get more wintry every day, now his QPF fetish will come out. CT 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Based on what Scott said im assuming the 18z gfs is similar to the euro. Def discard those two in favor of the snowiest models based on the nams stellar track record this year The 18z GFS is a 2-4 maybe 3-5 deal from ORH-BOS, south. My comment was to let things transpire for another 24 hours, because we are still seeing some shifts, and this may still come north a tad...as SREFs indicate. The PV will have a say, but I'd watch for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Messenger has been wishing winter away post after post and the outlooks get more wintry every day, now his QPF fetish will come out. CT 4-8 Havent been around all day as I've been catching up with some work...but I'm still thinking solid advisory with low end warning lollis for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Lots of laughing at the 11-15GFS Ens last week by the neuvo Warministas , Euro ENS today for 6-10,who is laughing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Havent been around all day as I've been catching up with some work...but I'm still thinking solid advisory with low end warning lollis for much of the area. Yeppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If I was Ryan i would have a 4-6 inch statewide map nd mention possibility for 7-8 la las Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 goodluck with that he would never go that high i bet he has 2 to 5 statewide If I was Ryan i would have a 4-6 inch statewide map nd mention possibility for 7-8 la las Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The GFS actually has a nice little frontogenesis area that hangs around the Pike until 21z Monday. That's usually one of those things where we have a small lingering band of light snows that lasts maybe 2-4 hours after the main band is gone. Just another thing to look at, besides qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 26.0/9. I need to give the dog a 90 minute walk but don't feel like braving the cold. Torches weaken us... Yeah, they do.. so they are useless. My 35" pack is now 15" and equal to Ray's despite my elevation. @ Christian.. This looks like 3-5" to me as it will have a slight center jump. However, that won't deter a nice moderate event here. I'll have a forecast out on FB.. with reasoning. @ Ray.. thats neat you have that . You beat me on one storm, i remember clearly.. i'll look up in my climo as I have snowfall maps with each storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 26.0/9. I need to give the dog a 90 minute walk but don't feel like braving the cold. Torches weaken us... How true, man! I was walking around today and it was 35 but the winds were whipping and I was cringing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The GFS actually has a nice little frontogenesis area that hangs around the Pike until 21z Monday. That's usually one of those things where we have a small lingering band of light snows that lasts maybe 2-4 hours after the main band is gone. Just another thing to look at, besides qpf. The mid-level RH and the frontogenesis signature has been keeping me relatively bullish for this event....couple that with likely a little tick north as we get inside 24h and I think we'll see some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 goodluck with that he would never go that high i bet he has 2 to 5 statewide Ryan said earlier he expects this to be more aggressive than depicted. I am thinking he is leaning in KeVs Wills camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 How true, man! I was walking around today and it was 35 but the winds were whipping and I was cringing! I was at the front desk reprogramming temp set points for the Arctic blast, patrons and employees coming in crying like little boys for their Mommas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Highest we've had since 2001. Unfortunately, I didn't witness it, since I was up in Plymouth We hit 28" in Feb 2008 Wait you were already in college in 2008? I thought you were born in '91 did you skip two grades or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Ryan said earlier he expects this to be more aggressive than depicted. I am thinking he is leaning in KeVs Wills camp Right now I'm thinking 3-5" basically statewide. Someone will jackpot and see more but I think that may be north of us. I think this has an impressive/quick hitting look for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wait you were already in college in 2008? I thought you were born in '91 did you skip two grades or something? He lives in NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 im leaning that way to ryan is never bullish in my opinion unless everything is showing a major hit Ryan said earlier he expects this to be more aggressive than depicted. I am thinking he is leaning in KeVs Wills camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 He lives in NH I thought he lived in Keene though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I thought he lived in Keene though. No, he didn't witness this year's max snow depth in Keene...he was there in '08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Later next week is a head scratcher. I have a few different scenarios that I could see play out. It's temping to let the -EPO win out and do something like the GFS is doing. That is, have a weak coldfront move through on Thursday, just in time for a polar airmass to settle in for a long duration overrunning event. Or, have the Euro torch us with a cutter. A scenario that's possible, is something closer to the euro ensemble where we have a milder day with a fropa that may come through relatively dry. That's sets us up for a wave that moves in later next weekend. I'm just not completely buying something like the HPC has and a colder GFS scenario, however the thought of that is certainly there, so it would not be wise to completely rule it out. I hope and pray for the GFS to win here, I'm just not sure it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the funny thing is if this was a normal winter there would be post every 10 seconds about this storm this year every expects big storms every 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The mid-level RH and the frontogenesis signature has been keeping me relatively bullish for this event....couple that with likely a little tick north as we get inside 24h and I think we'll see some decent snows. The 00z euro was pretty bullish with this. One of the "signs" I like to use to see if it verifies on the higher end of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 No, he didn't witness this year's max snow depth in Keene...he was there in '08. Ohh okay it was taken out of context sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 the funny thing is if this was a normal winter there would be post every 10 seconds about this storm this year every expects big storms every 3 days I just want to see everything whitened. It's really nasty looking here. Lots of grass in the typical sun torched spots, but this is now many of the south facing lawns. It's funny driving along the e-w roads because there are the "haves" and "have nots"..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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