Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think this has Pete to Will to Ray on north written all over it, I know Will thought this was coming north for days now and never bought into a ct jackpot. Pike north into ski country, that will be the jackpot in my opinion. Not with the PV where it is..no way ..Will feels 50 miles either side of pike is jackpot which is not a CT jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think this has Pete to Will to Ray on north written all over it, I know Will thought this was coming north for days now and never bought into a ct jackpot. Pike north into ski country, that will be the jackpot in my opinion. NW trend every storm this season This will come north.. even tho I don't want it.. I want Friday weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks Sam. Looks like BDL and PVD can really come in well below normal FTM BOS erased a -2 departure for the month in 2 days. We'll add today thanks to a 48 at midnight but well below then for most of the final days of the month so I figure BOS ends up -1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks Sam. Looks like BDL and PVD can really come in well below normal FTM Well below? Next week doesn't look overly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 BOS erased a -2 departure for the month in 2 days. We'll add today thanks to a 48 at midnight but well below then for most of the final days of the month so I figure BOS ends up -1.5. Yeah BDL was 45 at midnight... so they'll be above normal for today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think jackpot is 50 miles either side of pike with 4-6 and someone gets 7 possibly 8 max..with a sharp nw/se cutoff somewhere up in your area Not sure about the sharp cutoff. With the PV lobe floating to our north, UL confluence (and associated high surface pressure) is confined to our west. There will definitely be a sharp cutoff in accumulations across the northern Midwest into southern Ontario perhaps, but I think in being downstream of the PV lobe, in the difluent region, we'll see a more gradual drop off in accumulations to the north ... probably becoming more orographically influenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well below? Next week doesn't look overly cold. Well below normal thru Wed..then normal for 2 days and we end the month bitter cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Wow look at the Euro's torch and rain-fest next Friday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 NW trend every storm this season This will come north.. even tho I don't want it.. I want Friday weather Of course I dont want it, but to think it cant happen is unerealistic, thats an impressive push of warmth, I think in the end everybody in ct taints and south of 84 is snow to rain, with very little qpf, ends as drizzle. For the last month every clipper or swfe has trended north the final 48, no reason to think this wont, normally having the euro on my side would be a no brainer, not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm not sweating anything......notice how uncharacteristically level-headed I have been of late. It's going to be a snowy month and any guidance suggesting otherwise is wrong.....OPINION and soon to be FACT. 29.2\16 Couldn't agree more. amen! was a spotty lurker through the torch, and just casually glanced at NCEP products friday as if a subconscious calling that la epic 2 was on the horizon... cautiously optimistic. nice gradient setting up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 LOL, FACT not OPINION. 2 days away, lots of time left. I've exected 3-6" for a week ; FACT not opinion. It is what it is....and what it is is AIT. 19" left at the stake (down 14" from the 33" peak), but I'd call the avg depth about 14"-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Good start..2-4 just Sunday nite..with more all day Monday SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well below normal thru Wed..then normal for 2 days and we end the month bitter cold ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I've exected 3-6" for a week ; FACT not opinion. It is what it is....and what it is is AIT. 19" left at the stake, but I'd call the avg depth about 14"-16". FACT LOL..when did you start doing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Good start..2-4 just Sunday nite..with more all day Monday SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT I actually think most of the snow is over by 15z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Agree with that Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 ok Tell me how I'm wrong...unless you're basing your forecast soley on the outlier Euro whose own ensembles don't support the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks Sam. Looks like BDL and PVD can really come in well below normal FTM What a wild month. These semi-neutral departures come nowhere close to describing the temperature regimes that we've had. Worcester, right on 0, has had 3 days with temps -10F from normal, and 3 days with >+10 from normal ... one of which was +20 (yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 FACT LOL..when did you start doing this? LOL I'm a big Felger fan.....maybe a month or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Tell me how I'm wrong...unless you're basing your forecast soley on the outlier Euro whose own ensembles don't support the op I don't think you're really wrong. Tomorrow is -10 for the day... Monday is like -4 or -5. Tuesday is back to -10 or maybe more... and then we start warming at or above normal for Thursday and Friday. What I think you may be wrong about is the "well below for the month"... that may be tough to accomplish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Somehow the hills of sw NH always end up with the depth jackpot...never fails. I don't think that they have jackpotted in one event, but their retention is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I don't think you're really wrong. Tomorrow is -10 for the day... Monday is like -4 or -5. Tuesday is back to -10 or maybe more... and then we start warming at or above normal for Thursday and Friday. What I think you may be wrong about is the "well below for the month"... that may be tough to accomplish. Well to me anything -2.5 or colder is a WBN month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Tell me how I'm wrong...unless you're basing your forecast soley on the outlier Euro whose own ensembles don't support the op Yeah the op Euro gets a lot colder early next week than most of the ensemble members. The op Euro agrees with the ensemble mean for a cutter and somewhat of a torch Fri/Sat and then the op goes crazy with the cold but the ensembles don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Somehow the hills of sw NH always end up with the depth jackpot...never fails. I don't think that they have jackpotted in one event, but their retention is unreal. road trip with Ice warrior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Chippenshill should post, need some new blood posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I've exected 3-6" for a week ; FACT not opinion. It is what it is....and what it is is AIT. 19" left at the stake, but I'd call the avg depth about 14"-16". Just a hunch but we may want to wait 48 hours to declare FACT like the idiot talking head on tv kudlow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Keep in mind the normals are starting to rise steadily. For BDL, normal for today is 39/21, mean of 30. Next week should definitely add to that negative departure. Of course it might not fit under your definition of "well" below. I wouldn't consider -2.5 in February well below. -3 or -3.5 probably are though... so it's possible we get there. I don't think it's a lock though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 road trip with Ice warrior? If he tips his cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Somehow the hills of sw NH always end up with the depth jackpot...never fails. I don't think that they have jackpotted in one event, but their retention is unreal. 18"-20" IMBY per my parents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18"-20" IMBY per my parents What is the elevation.....I'd guess that you aren't much above 500', then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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