Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I wish that stuff over Wisconsin and Michigan would move east...nice little ULL action there with all the trimmings. ob KDLH 210255Z 08026G38KT 1/4SM R09/4000VP6000FT +SN BLSN FZFG FEW005 SCT015 OVC021 M08/M10 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 09040/0209 SLP170 P0002 60003 T10781100 53001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 How do the obs synch up with what's been modeled. Looking at the radar it seems like there is an area expanding even North of Buffalo. Just loooking at the trajectory it seems like it's a bit farther North than progged. I know it's supposed to get crushed SE but..... The BFD obs are probably too far south for us in this flow...but those IAG/ROC areas are a good sign....also SYR later on. Good sign too that the Canadian stations north of the Lake Ontario are all reporting snow and now just getting into ART area with GTB reporting 1 mile -SN...ART still overcast but probably 10pm obs will be snow. So that tells me at least we are unlikely to get totally whiffed. I've been on that trend like white on rice. 3-5" here, that's my call. How late will messenger stay up to tell everyone how little snow they're going to get?lol I'm up past my bedtime. Think snowy thoughts! Good night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like snow will be in Albany shortly. Boundary layer just about saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ouch the 00z GFS is a total disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ROC/PEO/BGM all reporting 1/2 SM SN...I think thats a good sign...at least for the CT people. Looks like another secondary band trying to get organized over Lake Ontario to just N of RME...I think that one is the hope for the MA people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I've been on that trend like white on rice. 3-5" here, that's my call. How late will messenger stay up to tell everyone how little snow they're going to get?lol I'm up past my bedtime. Think snowy thoughts! Good night!! The 40 minutes I've spent looking at this system in the last 5 days was 39 minutes too many. Got roped in with all the optimism. Ouch the 00z GFS is a total disaster Yeah, real monster storm. The RGEM managed to actually get worse too. The last run to show reasonable lift at 700 was the 12z 18th NAM I think. After that most models kept the good VV's at that level well south and slowly the QPF solutions followed suit. Not that simple I realize but at least some upward lift in that layer/near that layer would have been nice to produce more than a very meager event. SW CT should still do fine and of course Ski MRG should get more than anyone else in MA but pedestrian and a let down considering the heavy hit going on not far to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 U know the event doesn't look good when it's been 30 minutes since the last post on a Sunday night at 1140. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ROC/PEO/BGM all reporting 1/2 SM SN...I think thats a good sign...at least for the CT people. Looks like another secondary band trying to get organized over Lake Ontario to just N of RME...I think that one is the hope for the MA people. Yeah I like the upstream obs and that's why i didn't change my forecast at 11. That said I expect most people to wind up near the lower edge of my totals. 3" in hfd... 2" tol etc. Maybe 4 or 5 in Fairfield county with some luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 U know the event doesn't look good when it's been 30 minutes since the last post on a Sunday night at 1140. I think that just means there's no real discussion left...it'll take a minor miracle overnight to get near the totals being forecast earlier today. Burbank went with a dusting to 1" for all of NE MA/Cape Cod and boston. More towards will and kev, 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think that just means there's no real discussion left...it'll take a minor miracle overnight to get near the totals being forecast earlier today. Burbank went with a dusting to 1" for all of NE MA/Cape Cod and boston. More towards will and kev, 1-3". That sounds totally reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 U know the event doesn't look good when it's been 30 minutes since the last post on a Sunday night at 1140. If it was December, we'd probably be lit up like a Christmas tree in this thread. Events generally less than 4 inches get pretty boring around here at the end of the season. I think it looks ok for CT...perhaps up into MA if that band up near RME and Ontario can stay good. But it looks like a lot of those bands coming in from NY will at least have a shot at CT. Who knows though...maybe they'll all fall apart, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm going to go ahead and reduce my 1-2'' call to C-1''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Do any of the mets think the Friday storm can trend south with the confluence/banana high over SE Canada? At 114 hours, the 0z GFS has a 1000mb low right near NYC, close call for many of us. Given the +NAO, what are the prospects for this system to be squashed south, or come in even further north like the 12z ECM? Gut tells me I might be driving to our house in NE PA for this system. A strengthening low pressure over NYC is a good signal for a big snowstorm in the Poconos, and I haven't been out of the city in months really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 nzucker when we see the movements that this storm made in the D7 to D5 range and then again D5 to H24....lots of time. I'm still hopeful for the coating to 2". If I had to pick a number for here I'd guess about 1.2". Both kids with fevers over 100...will likely be half awaking checking from the phone as the night goes on. Would really like to see SW CT get up to 6" or so....at least make it a notable event for a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Snow has reached W MA....PSF now reporting 2 SM -SN. Probably means its snowing in Litchfield county too in NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ruc is running north of all 0z guidance we will see how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, hoping a friend in SW CT can get 4-6". I'll be happy with 2" plus new SN over the 15" snowpack remaining after the torch with more chances coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 light snow here dusting on everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 looking at the radar i dont think i do bad at all with this noticing some 35 dbz in eastern newyork now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 mod snow now with that band coming threw nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 this is like an inch an hour kind of stuff now half inch new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 this is like an inch an hour kind of stuff now half inch new Sounds like dendritic growth is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Any word on the ECM for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 im pretty impressed by it Sounds like dendritic growth is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 this is like an inch an hour kind of stuff now half inch new Good band going through Southwick and Westfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 1 inch new heavy snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you would think we were about to flip to sleet or rain these flakes are huge!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 you would think we were about to flip to sleet or rain these flakes are huge!!! I've been surprised at the snow rates here in Amherst as well. Nice band setting up along I-90. About .5" new, all in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i think some people are going to be surprised when they wake up in the morning the stuff in newyork is looking better and looks like its heading for alot of us I've been surprised at the snow rates here in Amherst as well. Nice band setting up along I-90. About .5" new, all in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Any word on the ECM for Friday? ECM looks pretty crappy...low is 996mb on the KS/MO border, tracks through Cleveland at 992mb, ends up at 991mb NW of PWM. Not great news for SNE. Second system (Day 7) tracks over the IN/IL border at 994mb, looks like another rain event. With such a +NAO and a -PNA, we may be entering a period of cutters. We just have to hope the blocking pattern comes back soon or we'll be dealing with a few slop events, basically game over for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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