Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 First call IMBY: 3-5'' Second call IMBY: 1-2'' first call IMBY: 0 second call IMBY: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It gonna depend on if we can get a nice little burst of lift in here early tomorrow morning...GFS sounding definitely shows how we could do a bit of damage in a 3 hour window early tomorrow morning...a nice isothermal saturated region in the SGZ Yeah the GFS has also showed just pathetic amounts of omega throughout the column so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ut oh, I see Forky lurking, must be time to go into the SNE thread to lay a turd.lol what a good way to encourage weather discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 As we get later into the season are our chances better with a coastal delivering good snows vs swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I wish I were a more experienced skiier. Hard to enjoy it now but snowshoeing (hope to do it this winter still) and general hiking in the woods is nice. Did alot of that this winter and more to come tomorrow. Great stuff Jerry, your tales of your hikes this winter were Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 It gonna depend on if we can get a nice little burst of lift in here early tomorrow morning...GFS sounding definitely shows how we could do a bit of damage in a 3 hour window early tomorrow morning...a nice isothermal saturated region in the SGZ Almost an identical sounding here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 what a good way to encourage weather discussion well Mike you do hit and run. Man thats a huge area of 94 ish winter storm warnings strung out like Wisconsin Cheese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Almost an identical sounding here. You can see the drier air in the lowest 50mb for BOS vs ORH at 12z...that might be an issue between W SNE and E SNE. But if we can get a nice little burst of lift, then it should be snow that accumulates quickly...even if its 1 SM -SN, because snow growth would be perfect. But Ryan mentioned crappy lift...and if it stays very weak, then we might just get the 2 SM -SN that doesn't accumulate well as its not prolific enough to take advantage of the great snow growth conditions in the mid-levels. That's why we'll have to watch what goes on upstream in central NY later tonight. Might give us an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Almost an identical sounding here. Up stream looks nice and the confluence might just ease in time. Noticed a definite change in antecedent air around 6. Hoping for a nice bust, precip seems further north than progged by about 50 miles, hopefully that keeps going. Not expecting more than 4 but any snow is good snow and anyway it gon snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 what a good way to encourage weather discussion Better than your constant trolling. LOL I follow your anti-New England posts in the other threads so I feel somewhat justified. Don't remember you making much of a contribution here when we were on a good run in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 this is an email i just got back from Todd Gross regarding tommorrow with permission "seems pretty cut and dry" "vort works down wnw/ese and drives the warm advection in and out of here in no-time flat.. hoping the ratio will help us to get a few inches, fingers crossed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z RUC looks great on the composite radar and much better than recent runs but it looks really really dry aloft so probably heavy virga... Awesome Radar! Soundings around ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z RUC looks great on the composite radar and much better than recent runs but it looks really really dry aloft so probably heavy virga... Awesome Radar! Soundings around ORH 05z is midnight. Its not going to be snowing within 100 miles of here at midnight I don't think. Anything we get probably won't be until after 3 or 4am. There will be a lot of virga on the front end as there is currently in NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like a front running burst will help in eastern areas but we'll struggle after that. Nowcast time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z RUC looks great on the composite radar and much better than recent runs but it looks really really dry aloft so probably heavy virga... Awesome Radar! Soundings around ORH There's the initial burst and then it appears a lot of what comes later misses targeting SW CT, SE NY, NNJ where they jackpot. 18z RGEM went even further south, all in all we'll need to see a nice movement and increase of radar returns later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Congrats NYC. This makes sense to me. This may be a little extreme in terms of how confined it is, but not a bad starting point for the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think Nate gets 4-6 out of this. Kevin 3-6. Ginx also 3-6 but once east of there it drops off. I'm expecting 2-3 and that's with ratios. Will in ORH may get 3-5, Ray may do better vs expected and I hope so given our new bet. SE MA may get screwed but not as bad as NE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think Nate gets 4-6 out of this. Kevin 3-6. Ginx also 3-6 but once east of there it drops off. I'm expecting 2-3 and that's with ratios. Will in ORH may get 3-5, Ray may do better vs expected and I hope so given our new bet. SE MA may get screwed but not as bad as NE areas. I'm thinking a coating to 2" in Boston and here. ORH maybe 1-3". CT is a really tough call, could range from not much more than a dusting/few inches in NE CT to several inches in SW CT. Would like to see the next few hours of returns and also the 0z suite but the RGEM and now 0z RUC are kind of red flags to a more significant event outside of the southern//western part of CT and maybe RI and the hills in western MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think Nate gets 4-6 out of this. Kevin 3-6. Ginx also 3-6 but once east of there it drops off. I'm expecting 2-3 and that's with ratios. Will in ORH may get 3-5, Ray may do better vs expected and I hope so given our new bet. SE MA may get screwed but not as bad as NE areas. What was your bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm thinking a coating to 2" in Boston and here. ORH maybe 1-3". CT is a really tough call, could range from not much more than a dusting/few inches in NE CT to several inches in SW CT. While I never expected anything huge, I was hoping for a snowy day...holiday for me. Such is life. Work week and a busy one starts Tuesday so interest wanes unless something substantial materializes beyond a GFS pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 What was your bet? Double or nothing on dinner Ray (would owe for hitting 90 inches which was my call for him back in Sept) if he got under 6 in his by for the rest of Feb. I took it figuring he'd get 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 While I never expected anything huge, I was hoping for a snowy day...holiday for me. Such is life. Work week and a busy one starts Tuesday so interest wanes unless something substantial materializes beyond a GFS pipe dream. February to me was a disaster as soon as the pattern shifted. I have hopes that March will produce a few more good events. I'd be happy with one, expect 1-2 events..be really happy with 3-4 but also wouldn't be surprised if we're cool/cold but end up with messy/wet storms. This one for Monday looks terrible on the NAM which is coming in now. Very much like the RGEM which I think took all the other guidance to the woodshed on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 February to me was a disaster as soon as the pattern shifted. I have hopes that March will produce a few more good events. I'd be happy with one, expect 1-2 events..be really happy with 3-4 but also wouldn't be surprised if we're cool/cold but end up with messy/wet storms. This one for Monday looks terrible on the NAM which is coming in now. Very much like the RGEM which I think took all the other guidance to the woodshed on this one. I owe you dinner also. Not betting anymore or I'll need Jenny Craig.....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM/RUC/earlier RGEMs are all ugly for this event. Hoping it comes to life as it approaches overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM could be worse...seems better than earlier guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here's the 18h QPF, event 1 is over for the most part at this point. Agrees now with the earlier RGEMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Double or nothing on dinner Ray (would owe for hitting 90 inches which was my call for him back in Sept) if he got under 6 in his by for the rest of Feb. I took it figuring he'd get 6+. Well they'll probably be two more shots for snow in February after this small event...the Friday event and then potential on Feb 27-28 right at the end of the month. No guarantee either produces, but those would be your shots to win the bet. Lets hope the NAM doesn't verify for tomorrow...it doesn't look very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 what are meso's showing tonite ? messenger? sorry multi tasking so was wondering if someone already looked. SUNY /ARW? nam is embarrasing .10 qpf north of CT/RI lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here's the 18h QPF, event 1 is over for the most part at this point. Agrees now with the earlier RGEMs. And on that cheery note, I'm off to bed. Hopefully will be suprrised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 what are meso's showing tonite ? messenger? sorry multi tasking so was wondering if someone already looked. SUNY /ARW? RUC just abandoned the storm at 0z...looks like the 0z NAM which is horrible. The 0z HRRR is horrible compared to say the 21z run for 7z as well. In short the RUC/NAM/HRRR just went all RGEM on us and this is a coating to 2" deal for most aside of CT and maybe a part of RI and western MA. If this plays out like this, the RGEM is on a heck of a roll inside of 36-42 hours in this particular pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.