ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Back after a long day working...not a nice trend today on model guidance. My tick northward looks like it never will happen. Still gonna have to watch that northern edge of the precip shield though for banding...esp SW MA and through CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You've showed great restraint this month. You need to learn to ski so you could take up hunting snow bunnies.lol I def. have to get more socially involved....I've hibernated, this winter....but it's been worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah this is a nice spot to be with the first wave...I would imagine from the Poconos to NYC northern suburbs to SW CT will see the higher amounts, perhaps nearing 8" at higher elevations in PA and 6" down here. I really like the look on radar and believe this event will not be a disappointment, also seems to be coming in further north than expected which is an advantage for you guys. 18z NAM looks as if it wants to expand the precip shield with the 2nd event but just misses me....we'll see if we can get it far enough north for a coating-inch here. I'm always one to appreciate winter...I ski or snowshoe probably 1-2X every winter but am always out walking the dogs in the snow, taking pictures of every event. Historic Winter 10-11 FTW: Nice pic Socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Back after a long day working...not a nice trend today on model guidance. My tick northward looks like it never will happen. Still gonna have to watch that northern edge of the precip shield though for banding...esp SW MA and through CT. You have a 2nd job.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah this is a nice spot to be with the first wave...I would imagine from the Poconos to NYC northern suburbs to SW CT will see the higher amounts, perhaps nearing 8" at higher elevations in PA and 6" down here. I really like the look on radar and believe this event will not be a disappointment, also seems to be coming in further north than expected which is an advantage for you guys. 18z NAM looks as if it wants to expand the precip shield with the 2nd event but just misses me....we'll see if we can get it far enough north for a coating-inch here. I'm always one to appreciate winter...I ski or snowshoe probably 1-2X every winter but am always out walking the dogs in the snow, taking pictures of every event. Historic Winter 10-11 FTW: Nice I can see the possibility of number 2 trending north to clip SCT SRI. Have not written off interior areas for a big deal Friday either. Like I said before no one is talking about the GFS, surprising really, 18 Z still insists on inland snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You have a 2nd job.... I do some commodity research stuff on the side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Back after a long day working...not a nice trend today on model guidance. My tick northward looks like it never will happen. Still gonna have to watch that northern edge of the precip shield though for banding...esp SW MA and through CT. How do the obs synch up with what's been modeled. Looking at the radar it seems like there is an area expanding even North of Buffalo. Just loooking at the trajectory it seems like it's a bit farther North than progged. I know it's supposed to get crushed SE but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nice I can see the possibility of number 2 trending north to clip SCT SRI. Have not written off interior areas for a big deal Friday either. Like I said before no one is talking about the GFS, surprising really, 18 Z still insists on inland snows. Yeah 18z is pretty far south with the Friday storm, looks as if even I could see some frozen. Nice confluence over Canada, we just need one more shift south to get the major cities, will be difficult with the -PNA but not impossible given that brutal cold air bearing down from the Canadian Prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nice pic Socks. Thanks, here's another one of my favorites from January: Will be out and about tonight having a gander at the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I understand the difference in lifestyles and totally understand how some people do not enjoy winter for whatever reason but what I fail to understand is cyber winter lovers. Be up early to take a walk with the pups , a big man with three little dogs and one huge 110 pounder dog and 4 leashes, quite hysterical I'd be with you bro...used to walk thru center city Philly middle of the night during snowstorms....freakin awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nice I can see the possibility of number 2 trending north to clip SCT SRI. Have not written off interior areas for a big deal Friday either. Like I said before no one is talking about the GFS, surprising really, 18 Z still insists on inland snows. Tryed to keep up through the day but sketchy cell service out here makes it difficult. I was reading all these posts about a warm rain at the end of the week yet BOX's forecast for the end of the week isn't nearly as dire as some made it out to be. Snow is still very much a possibility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 At least Mad River Glen is honest in their snow reports. Updated on Sunday, February 20, 2011 at 08:00:00 What was once a very soggy hill has firmed up pretty good. Fortunately this cool down combined with a bit of new snow yesterday so there are some decent turns out there especially on the groomers. The ungroomed stuff - not so much, it's pretty technical, defensive skiing out there. It's the kind of conditions that make New England skiers so awesome! Skiing surfaces are variable; ranging from pretty good machine groomed to "dust on crust". I hope NNE gets buried before this winter is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Which was what, if I may ask? tomorrow's event not cutting into upstate ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ut oh, I see Forky lurking, must be time to go into the SNE thread to lay a turd.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We need some more hallucinations saying the precips further north then progged and were going to get 6" of snow. Let's get them going. Heavy Heavy Hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Meh,people in Fla do not live any longer than people in New England. But I agree with you cold and very old not good for some. Siberia does have some pretty old folks and so does the Arctic Circle, my point was the incessant whining especially from the young folks I heard. Highest life expectancy by state is HI. #2 is MN ironically so there's more to it. Genetics, lifestyle. Surely getting less than optimal sleep months on end while weenieing is not good for you. Almost every major life shortening condition is worsened by lack of sleep. I'm as guilty as the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Tryed to keep up through the day but sketchy cell service out here makes it difficult. I was reading all these posts about a warm rain at the end of the week yet BOX's forecast for the end of the week isn't nearly as dire as some made it out to be. Snow is still very much a possibility here. End of week I'd lean warmer but its certainly possible it ends up frozen. Could be a marginal ice situation in the interior too as a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 At least Mad River Glen is honest in their snow reports. Updated on Sunday, February 20, 2011 at 08:00:00 What was once a very soggy hill has firmed up pretty good. Fortunately this cool down combined with a bit of new snow yesterday so there are some decent turns out there especially on the groomers. The ungroomed stuff - not so much, it's pretty technical, defensive skiing out there. It's the kind of conditions that make New England skiers so awesome! Skiing surfaces are variable; ranging from pretty good machine groomed to "dust on crust". I hope NNE gets buried before this winter is out. After years of being a ski reporter I can tell you with certainty that MRG is brutally honest. I posted that in the Mid -Winter Appreciation Thread this AM. Icy death bumps truly help you to hone your abilities. I actually like skiing crud sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 We need some more hallucinations saying the precips further north then progged and were going to get 6" of snow. Let's get them going. Heavy Heavy Hallucinations. Watch the Thruway obs in W and central NY...if we can get ROC, PEO and SYR to 1/2 SM SN or better, then that would be a good sign for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 End of week I'd lean warmer but its certainly possible it ends up frozen. Could be a marginal ice situation in the interior too as a compromise. Are the op runs in pretty good agreement on track or relatively scattered? Seems like we still certainly have time for some big swings one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I actually like skiing crud sometimes. I don't mind crud but the frozen surfaces right now are hell on the knees. Trees and bumps, trees and bumps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Watch the Thruway obs in W and central NY...if we can get ROC, PEO and SYR to 1/2 SM SN or better, then that would be a good sign for here. Thanks, should be fun to track, at least. School vacation tommorow so Im debating whether to stay up and track my 2", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 End of week I'd lean warmer but its certainly possible it ends up frozen. Could be a marginal ice situation in the interior too as a compromise. Yea Ens are pretty warm but two runs of the GFS say snow especially for you, not the Kev 55 torch which he says melts all his snow again LOL. Not a dead cutter yet. People will again bash me for being an optimist but its what I do and who I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Back after a long day working...not a nice trend today on model guidance. My tick northward looks like it never will happen. Still gonna have to watch that northern edge of the precip shield though for banding...esp SW MA and through CT. You're still thinking 3-5 for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You're still thinking 3-5 for ORH? I may have to bump it down to 2-4...I dunno. BOX has me in the advisory. I'd like to see what happens in central NY before making too many changes. Difference between 3-5 or 2-4 is pretty minor...but just want to make sure I don't have to change it to dusting to an inch, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 After years of being a ski reporter I can tell you with certainty that MRG is brutally honest. I posted that in the Mid -Winter Appreciation Thread this AM. Icy death bumps truly help you to hone your abilities. I actually like skiing crud sometimes. Sicko, watched a great ski documentary from Alaska with my coffee today. Icy death bumps would be literal for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I may have to bump it down to 2-4...I dunno. BOX has me in the advisory. I'd like to see what happens in central NY before making too many changes. Difference between 3-5 or 2-4 is pretty minor...but just want to make sure I don't have to change it to dusting to an inch, lol. Kevin texted me to say you still thought 3-5 for you and him after he saw my forecast lol... 3-5 most of CT... 2-4 Tolland/Windham cos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sicko, watched a great ski documentary from Alaska with my coffee today. Icy death bumps would be literal for me. I wish I were a more experienced skiier. Hard to enjoy it now but snowshoeing (hope to do it this winter still) and general hiking in the woods is nice. Did alot of that this winter and more to come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Kevin texted me to say you still thought 3-5 for you and him after he saw my forecast lol... 3-5 most of CT... 2-4 Tolland/Windham cos It gonna depend on if we can get a nice little burst of lift in here early tomorrow morning...GFS sounding definitely shows how we could do a bit of damage in a 3 hour window early tomorrow morning...a nice isothermal saturated region in the SGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It gonna depend on if we can get a nice little burst of lift in here early tomorrow morning...GFS sounding definitely shows how we could do a bit of damage in a 3 hour window early tomorrow morning...a nice isothermal saturated region in the SGZ You thinking 8z start time, over by 16z type thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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