CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Game over man, Game over! Maybe for you... I think we'll be ok down here but I am no longer thinking lollis of 5-7 for my backyard at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Maybe for you... I think we'll be ok down here but I am no longer thinking lollis of 5-7 for my backyard at least. Seasonal trend-jackpot in SW CT, NYC and NE NJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I love this website... use it all the time http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ If you click on the trend for the 24 hour forecast on the NAM and GFS it's pretty wild how far south the models have shifted the best QG forcing/warm advection and even started drying out the column in central New England. Thanks for sharing that site. I've noticed even late Yday that a little center jump occurs as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Seasonal trend-jackpot in SW CT, NYC and NE NJ.... The GFS is just atrocious... even sucks for SW CT with very meager amounts of omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Maybe for you... I think we'll be ok down here but I am no longer thinking lollis of 5-7 for my backyard at least. Still a shot at 1-2" up this way or are we talking trace amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The GFS is just atrocious... even sucks for SW CT with very meager amounts of omega. I'll be happy with 2-4.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll be happy with 2-4.... QPF on the GFS is probably high if the model is right with keeping all the lift south. It's really that paltry looking at the soundings and some other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Glad to see the 18z NAM bump up a bit even though the 15z SREFs blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 QPF on the GFS is probably high if the model is right with keeping all the lift south. It's really that paltry looking at the soundings and some other stuff. I noticed that too. Very weak lift and higher up. Sometimes that's ok if we get the high RH and saturation, but I would like to see it further north. The NAM gets good lift into sw CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I noticed that too. Very weak lift and higher up. Sometimes that's ok if we get the high RH and saturation, but I would like to see it further north. The NAM gets good lift into sw CT. Yeah it's concerning to see the GFS so weak with the lift. Even the NAM that does develop good lift it's really high up... maxes around 450mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Euro ensembles are still pretty warm for the end of the week. They're not the best looking for next Sunday either. Right on cue, the pattern improves March 1st..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah it's concerning to see the GFS so weak with the lift. Even the NAM that does develop good lift it's really high up... maxes around 450mb lol Toss it, its useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah it's concerning to see the GFS so weak with the lift. Even the NAM that does develop good lift it's really high up... maxes around 450mb lol Not concerning to see the snow bomb it portrays on Fri. Also that second system keeps bumping north but seems to be on the back burner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 No he is not You are quite the baby, today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Euro ensembles are still pretty warm for the end of the week. They're not the best looking for next Sunday either. Right on cue, the pattern improves March 1st..lol. AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Here's the new 18z NAM with upward omega contoured in orange and QG forcing from warm advection in red. You can see how far south the best forcing from warm advection is (best differential cyclonic vorticity advection is north over northern new england so nothing is co-located). The best omega and warm advection does clip SW CT and certainly the NYC Metro region but this is all substantially further north than the 12z GFS. Here's the 650, 750, and 850 mb frontogenesis and corresponding -15c isotherms. You can see the best mid level frontogenesis clips southern CT as well as a nice saturated mid level (shading) but the -15c isotherm is displaced NE telling me that it will be hard for even SW CT to way overperform with less than stellar dendritic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You guys are aware of Twisters ability to compare all fields of previous model runs in animation or stop still http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24¶meter=VVELD&level=700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=dprogdt&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 last minute burp of the SPV into a better orientation for us? that is what i am holding my hopes for ray what has to happen for .....xyz i mean would we look for the Se ridge and approaching short wave to bump heights up over SNE ..GOM a tad to give us more of a W-E orientation of confluence (instead of WNW to ESE) ? it seems to me that is what 18z nam does compared with 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Upton's map. Taunton doesn't have one out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ryan if there is decent omega in orange and good saturation in mid levels then isn't that enough? do we need the best forcing from WAA ? These warning signs have been here for two days but the snowier camp thought this would tail north late. The best dynamics have always missed the vast majority of us which is why the qpf talk (those saying the non blizzard crowd was hugging it) falls flat. It's been quite some time since a majority of models have been menacing for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 My prelim thoughts are 3"-5" for all of southern CT and NW CT, 1"-3" or 2"-4" for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham Counties. Haven't made up my mind which range to go for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 These warning signs have been here for two days but the snowier camp thought this would tail north late. The best dynamics have always missed the vast majority of us which is why the qpf talk (those saying the non blizzard crowd was hugging it) falls flat. It's been quite some time since a majority of models have been menacing for most of us. The fact that there still existed good lift to the N was enough of a reason to watch for snowier soloutions.....it didn't have to work out that way and it may not, but the point was and is valid. Just like in the split system, when the QPF was missing, the mid level deformation portended the heavy hit that we ultimately took.....it doesn't always work out, but there was reason to fathom a snowier soloution. I have always maintained that the PV was a valid concern, so I never dismissed your school of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 My prelim thoughts are 3"-5" for all of southern CT and NW CT, 1"-3" or 2"-4" for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham Counties. Haven't made up my mind which range to go for. what time do you think the "brunt" of it hits Kev's area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 what time do you think the "brunt" of it hits Kev's area? 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 These warning signs have been here for two days but the snowier camp thought this would tail north late. The best dynamics have always missed the vast majority of us which is why the qpf talk (those saying the non blizzard crowd was hugging it) falls flat. It's been quite some time since a majority of models have been menacing for most of us. Can you quote posts where ANYONE said this would be a big deal for you or matter of fact anyone, you are portraying other people by use of the non blizzard line, all you do is inflame lately, I find your posts lately annoying and inflammatory. If you believe this is no big deal just say so,every time you post you try to throw some derogatory remark towards someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Upton's map. Taunton doesn't have one out yet. I would think this afternoon Albany dramatically lowers it's forecast totals for S. VT. Seeing as the point and clicks still show 3-6" just north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12z maybe good enough timing to cancel 11 am class and 12 noon lab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Can you quote posts where ANYONE said this would be a big deal for you or matter of fact anyone, you are portraying other people by use of the non blizzard line, all you do is inflame lately, I find your posts lately annoying and inflammatory. If you believe this is no big deal just say so,every time you post you try to throw some derogatory remark towards someone. I thought what's what you thought about my posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i think the changing orientation of the confluence on the 18z nam vs 12z nam is interesting....if it is from the WNW/ESE tommorrow than everyone outside SW /S ct seems screwed....but if its' w-e or even a tad turned toward WSW-ENE then i would think there is potential. not a lock....but yes i am going into weenie mode. now if someone could shut me up and tell me what we need to look for to get this better orientation with the spv? messenger /ryan/ ray? (and not that that will gaurantee anything just imo give more potential ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I thought what's what you thought about my posts? No way not when you are serious and not trolling Kevin. My thoughts are this bumped north on the 18 on the Nam which could be a return to CT getting back into some good fronto but again it gon snow so it's all good. I have not given up on the second system having some snow for us in CT either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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