dryslot Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Im watching the race and am so disinterested in this event I have barely looked at models. But looks like a classic se ny nnj sw ct type of deal with maybe a super sharp cutoff ne of there. Imby I out the odds at 50% I see an inch or less 50% of 1+ Nice wreck taking out half the field, I don't know if i am a fan of this style racing, Should be interesting towards the end of the race to see who dances with who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ha, That should do it. You saw that? lol.. Okay, since you asked, I'll do that tomorrow AM. she has work off so i'll have her go measure both the new snow and the depth too.. Ice Commander has spoken ( with cap off).. Lol. Make her drive you and ray to the game too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Going to have to rely on positive anomalies building NE from AK to offset the positive NAO. Euro has a nice block north of AK by day 10, but a little too far north to really help deliver cold air for New England. Yeah that's the one thing helping us here. We really don't need a big -NAO block either. As long as we can get some ridging to nudge the PV on the side and hold it firm in Canada, that will help us. I can defitnely see periods of weak ridging into Greenland, but for now I don't see the mega block returning. Maybe it does toward mid month? Also, the benefits of a big -NAO start to shift and move north, as a -NAO begins to favor troughing further north. The pattern still favors good stuff in the long range imo. Will it hold, I don't know..but it seems ok. We'll have some chances which is all we can ask. It's not like I have this reaction when I look at the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Gotta love the signature absence of Will after bad model trends...hasn't been on here since 3am when he went to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 That is where "hunches" come in.....potential is cool, but I like to just make a call......sometimes it's possible to catch the vibe of a season at a particular time and Feb's has been awful. Same basis for me saying that we were done in Feb, last year. Lets see if I miss March. Oh I know, you've been good with hunches...I just mean we may miss out by miles, but that's how it goes sometimes. Maybe we can sneak something in by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah that's the one thing helping us here. We really don't need a big -NAO block either. As long as we can get some ridging to nudge the PV on the side and hold it firm in Canada, that will help us. I can defitnely see periods of weak ridging into Greenland, but for now I don't see the mega block returning. Maybe it does toward mid month? Also, the benefits of a big -NAO start to shift and move north, as a -NAO begins to favor troughing further north. The pattern still favors good stuff in the long range imo. Will it hold, I don't know..but it seems ok. We'll have some chances which is all we can ask. It's not like I have this reaction when I look at the pattern. Yea, having a huge block is not as vital to seeing a non-progressive bomb, as it is in Jan\Feb, either because wave lengths shorten. Times, they are achangn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Even though there is some model consistency about the late week cutter we are still several days out so I think more than just the warm solution should be on the table for those who are already declaring that system a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Oh I know, you've been good with hunches...I just mean we may miss out by miles, but that's how it goes sometimes. Maybe we can sneak something in by the end of the month. I know what you're saying.....you have done a great job outlining more favorable synoptic periods....that is where folks like me need mets like you and Will.....without your crucial insight, my hunches don't get off the ground. This is why this site is such an invaluable tool.....the pooling of human resources is unrivaled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yea, having a huge block is not as vital to seeing a non-progressive bomb, as it is in Jan\Feb, either because wave lengths shorten. Times, they are achangn' Yep, true. We still would like to have blocking to help with confluence and funnel in the cold, this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Gotta love the signature absence of Will after bad model trends...hasn't been on here since 3am when he went to bed. It is a fairly pleasant sunday afternoon to be doing something besides being on the board - lol. I'm presently taking breaks from installing new digital thermostats to replace the old mercury ones. Cursing all the while about how poorly everything is made these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Even though there is some model consistency about the late week cutter we are still several days out so I think more than just the warm solution should be on the table for those who are already declaring that system a disaster. The usually warm channel 7 (whdh) is favoring a snow/mix solution for some reason (maybe gfs hugging?). Any time there's a chance at rain they're usually all over it and downplay snow chances...but not for this one. It probably doesn't mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yep, true. We still would like to have blocking to help with confluence and funnel in the cold, this time of year. Right...I could see an elevation bomb, this year. Folks like you and I need a DEEP bomb that is accompanied by such low heights that it doesn't matter.....especially the latter half of the mth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nice wreck taking out half the field, I don't know if i am a fan of this style racing, Should be interesting towards the end of the race to see who dances with who. You're killing me I'm on the DVR. Waltrip not having a good day. Ray no probs and Id say you are right in waiting. I feel it's a decent odds it goes even firther south in later runs. Maybe 60-40 south v north/same. I think we are running on the edge of extremes in this pattern....they run north or miss/south. We will see just not a great feeling on this one as models are a bad joke and I saw no reason to invest until tonight. With my expectations low if it comes north I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You're killing me I'm on the DVR. Waltrip not having a good day. Ray no probs and Id say you are right in waiting. I feel it's a decent odds it goes even firther south in later runs. Maybe 60-40 south v north/same. I think we are running on the edge of extremes in this pattern....they run north or miss/south. We will see just not a great feeling on this one as models are a bad joke and I saw no reason to invest until tonight. With my expectations low if it comes north I'm happy. No he is not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 No he is not Maybe he meant Darrell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It won't be a torch in the classic sense. It will be cold and then quickly warming to rain and then cold. Almost the worst case scenario. Yup... the least desirable outcome. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Maybe he meant Darrell.... I don't know, Michael is not having a good day he is out of the race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nam is further south with the northern extent in mn and mi Edit meant north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Lol. Make her drive you and ray to the game too. Our chauffeur Bruin's or Red Sox FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 nam actually tries to flatten the flow out, minimizing the effect of the SW TO NE gradient...could actually not be that bad of a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 A little bump north on the 18z NAM, for those in the NE cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Further North spread out as expected. Junior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 18z nam backs up the Rev, to some extent anyway...looks like 2-5 40-60 miles north and south of the pike verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nam is further south with the northern extent in mn and mi Edit meant north! Looks better then 12z. .5" almost gets to extreme southern CT and .25 makes it N of the pike. North of ORH to Taunton line it goes from about .3" to .1" at the NH border. Verbatim slightly less for CT and slightly more for MA then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks better then 12z. .5" almost gets to extreme southern CT and .25 makes it N of the pike. North of ORH to Taunton line it goes from about .3" to <.1" at the NH border. A little bit better of a PV orientation for NE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I love this website... use it all the time http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ If you click on the trend for the 24 hour forecast on the NAM and GFS it's pretty wild how far south the models have shifted the best QG forcing/warm advection and even started drying out the column in central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's just a smidge north with the .5 early out west and that translates east. We shall see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I love this website... use it all the time http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ If you click on the trend for the 24 hour forecast on the NAM and GFS it's pretty wild how far south the models have shifted the best QG forcing/warm advection and even started drying out the column in central New England. Not IPAD friendly but on the PC nice site, 18 Z NAM looks like the 4-8 across CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not IPAD friendly but on the PC nice site, 18 Z NAM looks like the 4-8 across CT Haven't looked at it yet... the 18z that is. It's funny looking at the 12z runs yesterday and comparing them to the 12z runs today. Around Hartford, for instance, there's virtually no lift from warm advection which is bad news. All the lift is centered for a period of time near 450 mb on the 12z NAM while 12z yesterday it was the total opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I love this website... use it all the time http://www.hpc.ncep..../mdd/mddoutput/ If you click on the trend for the 24 hour forecast on the NAM and GFS it's pretty wild how far south the models have shifted the best QG forcing/warm advection and even started drying out the column in central New England. Game over man, Game over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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