moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm siding with Sam for a lollie-dusting here. At least there's no melting. 21.5/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ALl I'll is say is don't be surprised when 18z and esp 00z models bump things back north and east of the pike for you weenies who are sucking in Carbon Monoxide in your cars in the garage.. Everyone gets so focused on qpf amounts and fails to look at the bigger picture. Do you guys think Will and Scott would be so enthused about a solid event if there wasn';t more to it than humping each models qpf . Solid event for everyone south of the NH border. Lock it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If you believe that winter is essentially finished then that is a valid reason to tune out. But we might as well just give up on the wx altogether then for about three months because absent late season snow threats, the wx is generally useless until May sometime when some decent convective threats may begin to emerge. So bottom line ...I don't wish for Spring in February or March because all it will bring is 48F and rain..... It won't bring warm sunny days and flowers. More like foot deep mud and chilling wind swept 45F rain..... So true - I have often opined to the crew how much disdain I carry for the month of April, much for the sentiment you've created there (bold). But as I said, it came 2-3 weeks earlier than normal this year - arguable a whole month early; I will also add, there is a shamefulness about this too, because there is plenty of cold air to work with, with the Canadian shield load with negative anomalies, back-built by -EPO dump on-going... Yet, the other characteristics of the field are out of sync for using this cold more classically. In essence...what a waste! And, the rub for me is that when this pattern breaks ...some 3 weeks from now, we're in the ides of March where said futility imposes just as much uselessness as you intimated, but with regard to whether it is snowing or not. Simply put, miserable pattern relays into spring - so in effect, it's deemed over. Obviously this is notwithstanding the models just all being wrong - gee, how often has that happened this year! Maybe they will be and we back "accidentally" into 3 or 4 snow threats. The GFS is really trying to go against the grain in getting that to happen. If so, so be it - you get to enjoy the tale end of winter more righteously. But to be fair, I don't care either way - my winter spirit has checked out. I really want this done, which is my own frustration, because I know ...or perhaps fear rather, that without snow, what you said is probably my alternative Not a fan of Spring in New England. I suppose keeping with your sentiment, which I tend to agree - if the alternative is 46.4F wind swept in-door imprisoning rainy monotony, we better hope for this 12z GFS. Just as an ending comment ... wasn't last spring unreal? Wow was that grand. Once the flooding events of early March went by the boards, it was off the charts spectacular. Not one BD front. Routinely 70 and 80 type readings, with even a heat wave in April. It tried to cool off in Early May, but it furnace by mid month. Unfortunately, that is the rare exception 'round deez parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ALl I'll is say is don't be surprised when 18z and esp 00z models bump things back north and east of the pike for you weenies who are sucking in Carbon Monoxide in your cars in the garage.. Everyone gets so focused on qpf amounts and fails to look at the bigger picture. Do you guys think Will and Scott would be so enthused about a solid event if there wasn';t more to it than humping each models qpf . Solid event for everyone south of the NH border. Lock it . No CO inhalation here. It is what it is. I believe the trend has been to shift S. If the northward push you see plays out, great. At this point I have established a stoicism that allows me to ride with whatever's gonna play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You're sw of ALB right?? This could still be a nice event for you. Yeah that's the battle. I'm going to wait until the euro comes out and go from there. I think along and north of an approx I-90-Brattleboro line 1-3 inches; south of the line 3-5 maybe a lollipop or two of 6 inches across the Catskills and Berkshires. Still think the system will end sooner than model as most PIVA/WAA SWFE type systems do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We came through the thaw with 10 or 12 inches of ugly concrete in the woods and sheltered lawns. But unfortunately I don't live the woods and my lawn is pretty devastated with a few areas of grass and a lot of 2-6 inch zones in general. Those areas had been blown off for the first several event's so they never had as much depth. Yesterday we had almost 1.5" in snow squalls, but that blew right off the concrete in the open areas and it's as if it didn't occur. It is all in the woods and hedge rows. So the moral is ...be careful about clearing away too many trees. I'm siding with Sam for a lollie-dusting here. At least there's no melting. 21.5/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll be sure to rub it in tomorrow as I savor my 2 inch blizzard. I think NYC and swct may really hit it pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ALl I'll is say is don't be surprised when 18z and esp 00z models bump things back north and east of the pike for you weenies who are sucking in Carbon Monoxide in your cars in the garage.. Everyone gets so focused on qpf amounts and fails to look at the bigger picture. Do you guys think Will and Scott would be so enthused about a solid event if there wasn';t more to it than humping each models qpf . Solid event for everyone south of the NH border. Lock it . I'll wait until the euro pops out, but I was more enthused yesterday. We'll see, it's not like we went from 12" to 2". It almost has that vibe in here, when this was never progged to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll wait until the euro pops out, but I was more enthused yesterday. We'll see, it's not like we went from 12" to 2". It almost has that vibe in here, when this was never progged to be big. the vibe is like we went from 60" in 40 days to 1-2 inches in 15 days ....and now our .....crack fix which was modeled to be high end advisory low end warning for days craps the bed inside of 24 hours....like another event did not to long ago. and weenies are P.O'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS is back to that quick milder day on Thursday, and then front moves south, followed by a juicy low pressure. The euro ensembles weren't far from that, actually. Kind of interesting there because that is not really warm thicknesses at 538dm...for that Thursday. Another thing that signals is that it's "fake" warmth this time, so to speak, aided in by ever gaining solar... Throw in ANY dynamics and that's 32F in heart beat, regardless of whether it gets to 55F in that air mass. Spring, as much as I generally don't care for in New England, I will admit does occasionally bring some spectacular short duration weather changes. Oh god, now I sound like a hypocrite...but: 1) As much as I hate the thought of a BD boundary cutting into warm air mass, leaving Albany at 70F while it is 44F in Boston in mid April, sometimes when they come in, wow is that something. I remember was 2001. I worked in Boston on Comm Ave - 900 block, around BU. 93F to 63F in less than a half hour, 43 the next morning. 2) April 1997... After 2 days at 60-65, winter storm watch went up. I was at UML in the Met program up there. It was Saturday, 63F as I walked from Smith Hall across University bridge in route to Fox Tower for brunch. They didn't bother with breakfast and lunch delineation because no college kid bothered getting up for breakfast on a Saturday, so it was just brunch at noon. Man there were so many sex ladies dressed in short shorts, clad in those kind of tops where the tie off a knot just above their navals? Yea, good stuff, good times. Laying out sunning in the lawns out side of the girl dormitories, a day and a half later those same areas were under 18" of new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i wonder what Will's latest thoughts are? mine (and no one should care lol) are 1-3 ORH D-2 BOS 2-4 PVD 3-6 Danbury D-1 Ray 2.5-5 Rev 1-3 TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wtf is going on in here today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wtf is going on in here today? well C.C's were already resigned to getting screwed with snow fall accums....the rest of us don't like taking the medicine.....esp when we supposed to get a better fix after a sharp withdrawal from a snow fall high in jan. btw phil what are you thinkin for accums....similiar to what i posed above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Kind of interesting there because that is not really warm thicknesses at 538dm...for that Thursday. Another thing that signals is that it's "fake" warmth this time, so to speak, aided in by ever gaining solar... Throw in ANY dynamics and that's 32F in heart beat, regardless of whether it gets to 55F in that air mass. Spring, as much as I generally don't care for in New England, I will admit does occasionally bring some spectacular short duration weather changes. Oh god, now I sound like a hypocrite...but: 1) As much as I hate the thought of a BD boundary cutting into warm air mass, leaving Albany at 70F while it is 44F in Boston in mid April, sometimes when they come in, wow is that something. I remember was 2001. I worked in Boston on Comm Ave - 900 block, around BU. 93F to 63F in less than a half hour, 43 the next morning. 2) April 1997... After 2 days at 60-65, winter storm watch went up. I was at UML in the Met program up there. It was Saturday, 63F as I walked from Smith Hall across University bridge in route to Fox Tower for brunch. They didn't bother with breakfast and lunch delineation because no college kid bothered getting up for breakfast on a Saturday, so it was just brunch at noon. Man there were so many sex ladies dressed in short shorts, clad in those kind of tops where the tie off a knot just above their navals? Yea, good stuff, good times. Laying out sunning in the lawns out side of the girl dormitories, a day and a half later those same areas were under 18" of new snow. John, you crack me up man. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I havent been on since Friday, and come back to this. lol. I'll take my 1-3" and run. Enjoy the snow its the only snow you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Kind of interesting there because that is not really warm thicknesses at 538dm...for that Thursday. Another thing that signals is that it's "fake" warmth this time, so to speak, aided in by ever gaining solar... Throw in ANY dynamics and that's 32F in heart beat, regardless of whether it gets to 55F in that air mass. Spring, as much as I generally don't care for in New England, I will admit does occasionally bring some spectacular short duration weather changes. Oh god, now I sound like a hypocrite...but: 1) As much as I hate the thought of a BD boundary cutting into warm air mass, leaving Albany at 70F while it is 44F in Boston in mid April, sometimes when they come in, wow is that something. I remember was 2001. I worked in Boston on Comm Ave - 900 block, around BU. 93F to 63F in less than a half hour, 43 the next morning. 2) April 1997... After 2 days at 60-65, winter storm watch went up. I was at UML in the Met program up there. It was Saturday, 63F as I walked from Smith Hall across University bridge in route to Fox Tower for brunch. They didn't bother with breakfast and lunch delineation because no college kid bothered getting up for breakfast on a Saturday, so it was just brunch at noon. Man there were so many sex ladies dressed in short shorts, clad in those kind of tops where the tie off a knot just above their navals? Yea, good stuff, good times. Laying out sunning in the lawns out side of the girl dormitories, a day and a half later those same areas were under 18" of new snow. I worked at the Smith and Fox cafe's for several years (late 1980's-early 1990s) ... alas, Smith Hall is no more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Andy..thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The BD event that stands out to me was late May 2004. We were 80+ and quite muggy out here for a few days and I drove over to Boston where it was mid/upper 40's and a marine flow. Then a cold front came through and it briefly mixed to somewhat milder, but some decent T storms (formerly of the warm sector) drenched us in downtown BOS. Kind of interesting there because that is not really warm thicknesses at 538dm...for that Thursday. Another thing that signals is that it's "fake" warmth this time, so to speak, aided in by ever gaining solar... Throw in ANY dynamics and that's 32F in heart beat, regardless of whether it gets to 55F in that air mass. Spring, as much as I generally don't care for in New England, I will admit does occasionally bring some spectacular short duration weather changes. Oh god, now I sound like a hypocrite...but: 1) As much as I hate the thought of a BD boundary cutting into warm air mass, leaving Albany at 70F while it is 44F in Boston in mid April, sometimes when they come in, wow is that something. I remember was 2001. I worked in Boston on Comm Ave - 900 block, around BU. 93F to 63F in less than a half hour, 43 the next morning. 2) April 1997... After 2 days at 60-65, winter storm watch went up. I was at UML in the Met program up there. It was Saturday, 63F as I walked from Smith Hall across University bridge in route to Fox Tower for brunch. They didn't bother with breakfast and lunch delineation because no college kid bothered getting up for breakfast on a Saturday, so it was just brunch at noon. Man there were so many sex ladies dressed in short shorts, clad in those kind of tops where the tie off a knot just above their navals? Yea, good stuff, good times. Laying out sunning in the lawns out side of the girl dormitories, a day and a half later those same areas were under 18" of new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 well C.C's were already resigned to getting screwed with snow fall accums....the rest of us don't like taking the medicine.....esp when we supposed to get a better fix after a sharp withdrawal from a snow fall high in jan. btw phil what are you thinkin for accums....similiar to what i posed above? Yeah something along those lines overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I worked at the Smith and Fox cafe's for several years (late 1980's-early 1990s) ... alas, Smith Hall is no more... The whole Hall or just the caff - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Also OT but Friday night where did those t-storms come from? We were driving into western mass and it was lightning often then out of nowhere there was some heavy hail/graupel or whatever it was, covered the road. Constant sn showers Saturday as well. Quickly changing wx for sure; from 60F and sunny to 45F and t-storms, to 25F and Snow showers to single digits this morning. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We came through the thaw with 10 or 12 inches of ugly concrete in the woods and sheltered lawns. But unfortunately I don't live the woods and my lawn is pretty devastated with a few areas of grass and a lot of 2-6 inch zones in general. Those areas had been blown off for the first several event's so they never had as much depth. Yesterday we had almost 1.5" in snow squalls, but that blew right off the concrete in the open areas and it's as if it didn't occur. It is all in the woods and hedge rows. So the moral is ...be careful about clearing away too many trees. Lol. Even without clearing them, being on the hilltop I'm buffetted by winds from most any direction. I suppose the most protected is from due north, buteven so, the bulk of the tree line in that direction is about 100' from the house. The snow blows with ease at the pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The whole Hall or just the caff - Whole thing... demolished in July... sad to see it go. Drank many beers there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Methinks BOX's reluctance to hoist an advisory was a wise move. Sure, perhaps the Rev and other folks in CT will end up getting one and perhaps their final amounts will justify it. But for most of us, I think this will be a snoozer. Just caling it as I see it. Remain intrigued by the end of the week. Of course, if it comes wtih 55* rain, we'll have epic mud. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We are def walking the line for a bit on the GFS ensembles. Mega mega cold in Canada and warm across the se. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Despite the guidance that suggests I'm nuts, I still think my own BY will get 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Does anyone agree with the W/E gradient on BOX's map? It has around 3" IMBY down to a half inch in Boston? Also 2"for Kevin while sw NH sees 4"...seems off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Whole thing... demolished in July... sad to see it go. Drank many beers there Jesus, I had no idea - I lived there for 3 years! What are they putting there in its stead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What a pleasure it would be to have that GFS day 5 event. A trackable low pressure with a nice money in the bank area of qpf that can't miss. Instead of these endless late developing coastal systems where the best banding cuts off over the head of KALB. Or clippers that trend north on you and you get PL... Or southwest flow events that get crushed under confluence and each successive run lowers qpf.... And nice memories from '97. Sometimes I think about the hot girls from U Albany in circa 1986-90 etc....my days... It's good to keep them as they were in memories probably. LOL I have never done school reunions. ..maybe wouldn't want the rude awkening of seeing them now at age 40+ half obese and out of shape like most Americans.... The whole Hall or just the caff - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Don't know why people are depressed, as I Always thought this would be a 2-4 event, maybe more if things came together. I still have 14"-15" on the ground, and the 12" Consecutive Day Snowpack record is now in reach, 14 days away. I'm doing well here, even though it's going to take a few 12" storms to get the yard to look like it did. TIME TO WATCH THE DAYTONA 500!!!! I can't believe they changed the point system. What a bunch of Southern Buffoons. It was the best point system in All of sports (with point systems) in my opinion. The greatest thing NASCAR ever gave to sports. And now, they get rid of it because "it was too confusing for dumb f*^& people". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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