Return of winter.....let's rock to the records..2/20-25.

[Logan11]

It's over ....... NEXT -> Late week maybe or will that screw by being a cutter?

This is a hell of a winter here. Every single storm threat here has whiffed to some extent N, S, E, W Not a bad season snowfall because scraps from every storm (see sig.), but no good hits. Maybe a couple inch scrap tonight.

Rgem dropped the measurable further south now just barely to the MA nh border. 5mm is offshore.

Rgem has been good, will be interesting to see how it does here

[CoastalWx]

I don't remember ever saying anything bad about you lol

Trolling is a symptom of the ongoing problem - there's so much information and data going around (during the most active winter months) , that it's futile to even try to discuss it unless you have a red tag. Nearly every single independent met thought is discussed wrt events ( I've tried a few times to mention a few things that are outside the box but it's usually brain melt coming up with them)

That only leaves banter like ice fishing/skiing, Idiot carton on WFAN, and people who want to troll because you present ideas that they do not want to hear (like warmth during winter, for ex) - evidence/support or not.

The data has been for a warmup and much more varied pattern.

DT called for an end to the "real" winter and so far has been spot-on. Yet he was slandered for saying it a month ago!

No I didn't take it personally, just saying that if people want to post bold statements, at least say why. I think a lot of the discussion by non-mets is pretty open. Plenty of people like Ray, Jerry, Steve, all post their thoughts. We (mets) are not Gods and people shouldn't treat us that way. I hope the red tags under are name don't discourage thoughts.

Perhaps some of the banter goes too far, but as you know, many of us are friends here. It's gonna happen from time to time. However, I think the best disco goes on in these threads during winter events, and even just general pattern breakdown going forward. I hope others aren't intimidated as it seems your implying.

As far as winter goes, the NYC area is going to get a decent event perhaps..so I wouldn't say winter is over. Going forward, the pattern looks to serve up chances..and CNE/NNE has a chance of doing well in this pattern. Of course the epic stretch that we had won't return, that was a given.

[HoarfrostHubb]

No I didn't take it personally, just saying that if people want to post bold statements, at least say why. I think a lot of the discussion by non-mets is pretty open. Plenty of people like Ray, Jerry, Steve, all post their thoughts. We (mets) are not Gods and people shouldn't treat us that way. I hope the red tags under are name don't discourage thoughts.

Perhaps some of the banter goes too far, but as you know, many of us are friends here. It's gonna happen from time to time. However, I think the best disco goes on in these threads during winter events, and even just general pattern breakdown going forward. I hope others aren't intimidated as it seems your implying.

As far as winter goes, the NYC area is going to get a decent event perhaps..so I wouldn't say winter is over. Going forward, the pattern looks to serve up chances..and CNE/NNE has a chance of doing well in this pattern. Of course the epic stretch that we had won't return, that was a given.

Should I dismantle my altar to Will and Ryan? I will never defile your's of course!

Any idea why the models did not handle the influence of the vortex until the last 12 hours or so? Or was I just looking at them through weenie goggles too much?

[HoarfrostHubb]

I hope I get a lolli dusting

You need a new map methinks

[Mr Torchey]

What in Gods name happened?

[Logan11]

It's just bad luck really. The PV was needed for this to be snow anywhere in the east. So the winners are .... NE PA, lower Catskills of NY, NYC to points north like Socks and east into LI, far nw NJ . These areas may see 6 inches out of this. I think this will really surprise NYC as they jackpot after nearly 70F on Friday.

And tell them winter is over in eastern PA, NJ and maybe NYC again where the second round Monday night may also deliver accumulations.

The PV is a monster, just barrelling it's way through the continent. Laying waste to any chance of decent precip for us north of the Pike

Several posters mentione this several days ago. Good call attm

No one really thought more than 3-5", maybe 6", but looks like that will be confined to NW CT...

GFS killing us, then rain and torch on Friday. Burbank ftw

[CoastalWx]

scott it seemed the polar vortex

was a bigger concern of yours for a few days while other's were pushing the N trend. But you still figured with a plains low and decent mid levels something was possible. but it seemed to me and i may be wrong that you were pretty skeptical of this being decent for areas outisde of SW MA ct/ from the get go.

Well to be fair, I did think it would tick north, and I did mention that. It was yesterday, where I started saying that we have to watch for that PV because models were showing that sheared look. Even with that, the models had a nice area of frontogenesis which had me more bullish, but it's possible that area may be forced south.

We'll see what the euro does, but models sometimes don't give the WAA precip shield respect. This thing is pretty energetic too with lots of convection earlier, and some more later today. It's possible the downstream ridging may be a little more robust from that. However, that dam PV wants to settle southeast, so it's a battle.

[cpickett79]

Should I dismantle my altar to Will and Ryan? I will never defile your's of course!

Any idea why the models did not handle the influence of the vortex until the last 12 hours or so? Or was I just looking at them through weenie goggles too much?

good question b/c if you had weenie googles than almost everyone else did as well. BB surel'y doesn't and he doesn't let a busted forecast stop him from going low again and this time he may have scored a coup.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

No I didn't take it personally, just saying that if people want to post bold statements, at least say why. I think a lot of the discussion by non-mets is pretty open. Plenty of people like Ray, Jerry, Steve, all post their thoughts. We (mets) are not Gods and people shouldn't treat us that way. I hope the red tags under are name don't discourage thoughts.

Perhaps some of the banter goes too far, but as you know, many of us are friends here. It's gonna happen from time to time. However, I think the best disco goes on in these threads during winter events, and even just general pattern breakdown going forward. I hope others aren't intimidated as it seems your implying.

As far as winter goes, the NYC area is going to get a decent event perhaps..so I wouldn't say winter is over. Going forward, the pattern looks to serve up chances..and CNE/NNE has a chance of doing well in this pattern. Of course the epic stretch that we had won't return, that was a given.

It's become almost impossible to be on anything but the snow train despite a 2-3 week lapse of winter. Any non "the snowiest possible scenario" talk is shouted down unless it comes from you. That's just the facts right now.

There were a LOT of people that expected this to trend snowier including taggers. For a month all anyone had to do was forecast tons of snow and they got it right. As reality sets in we are seeing the results.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha ha, this is laughably sad for you snow heads - man, if I didn't know any better this was all engineered to maximize your torment.

Seriously, folks should get their heads around the possibility that despite a week's worth fervent exchanges over the matter, dim sun and nothingness may take place along the Ma Pike where flames were thrown over whether this would be a 3" or a 6" event. Wah wah wahhhh, goes the sad trumpet.

I won't go so far as to forecast that but just behind the scenes, this is starting to like a joke - for many of the reasons I outlined yesterday at this time.

Just more justification for this Meteorologist opinion that we are well entrenched into the futility time of the year, and yes, it arrived 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal. I believe that is adversely affecting folks' ability to see this pattern for what it is, as many still "feel" perhaps entitled to a better result. So they hold on and hold on. I don't know, but if that is the case, this pattern just is out to get you, and end this winter - probably painfully if you don't accept this for what it is.

The other problem is that I think that a cold season with repeating bad model performance (regardless of source) has left folks hungry for a system that shows up at D10, sticks, and verifies; such that the full spectrum in the science-emotion marriage can play out untainted.

This has not been that year. The models have routinely demonstrated that regardless of the cause, the general circulation system has been very difficult to manage prognostically. I read an off hand HPC Meteorologist's comment recently that essentially boiled down to this being caused by La Nina versus the -AO. That may very well be, as it in a sense it caused a split Hadley Cell, as though you have two northern Hemispheres, one above 40 N, one below - which dominates? More than half that snow across that ~45 days worth of winter assault was at times forecast to not happen, even as near as 3 days in, in a few cases. People didn't really get a chance to "enjoy" the run up time periods to systems. Everyone had to wait, biding time, hoping to be pleasantly surprised - well, it worked out in favor of the snow geese. However, the pattern has evolved since than into one that appears less prone to resulting in snow, "accidentally" if you want to call it that.

The -EPO may help. It is interestingly well-depicted by even the 00z ECM ensemble mean, yet that cluster has a decidedly different sensible impact resulting from, for the NE U.S.. The GFS severs episodic ridge nodes that ripple SE over Canada, confluence associated drives +PP that keeps the mean polar boundary just S enough to offer those in the Winter Betty Ford Clinic, a fix or two. The ECM on the other hand says no go, and brings about the worst plausible ending and shamefully so, to an otherwise diamond of a winter: Rain, cold, rain, cold, rain, cold, no snow per course, rinse repeat, season ends as we terminate (no doubt) into Easter's cut-off west Atlantic low that ruins the first half of summer... oh, wait, sorry -

Anyway, I'm so done with this. The whole uncertainty and challenge, what a bore now. May 25th last year was 98F at many climo sites that day, and later that night a severe containing MCC rumbled S through the area, and a leading single isolated cell with a meso moved straight over my house with strobe lightning and nickle hail. That's what I'm ready for. Not hemming and hawing over whether this that or the other winter result will happen, particularly if they all prove a waste of time - like Monday is trying desperately to become.

[cpickett79]

when do the 15z sref's come out?

do they just follow the nam? ( i thought i heard someone say that but i could be wrong) but if so it would kind of be like a nam ensemble.

[CoastalWx]

Should I dismantle my altar to Will and Ryan? I will never defile your's of course!

Any idea why the models did not handle the influence of the vortex until the last 12 hours or so? Or was I just looking at them through weenie goggles too much?

LOL, I think some people think that. It's ok to call us out, if you disagree...that's all I meant. It's an open board meant to talk wx.

The vortex was there, but it has moved more to the se, especially since yesterday. It's tough because past experience with a Plains low or swfe has shown that these have a tendency to move north in successive model runs more often than not, but this guy is a little different, because of the PV. I'm not a fan of these systems, because they always have tricks up their sleeve. If that arc of moisture doesn't weaken as progged or moves just a little further north..it could mean the difference between a dusting and 5". The opposite also applies.

[Logan11]

I think we had competing signals. We had the general tendency in the La Nina which favors trends north and worked in the event of the 5th and certainly last weekend's clipper. Then we have the PV and the cold high to the north that models sometimes underestimate...... I guess the top off was the energy was hanging so far west this time...not able to overwhelm and trend north...just getting the squish job.

Well to be fair, I did think it would tick north, and I did mention that. It was yesterday, where I started saying that we have to watch for that PV because models were showing that sheared look. Even with that, the models had a nice area of frontogenesis which had me more bullish, but it's possible that area may be forced south.

We'll see what the euro does, but models sometimes don't give the WAA precip shield respect. This thing is pretty energetic too with lots of convection earlier, and some more later today. It's possible the downstream ridging may be a little more robust from that. However, that dam PV wants to settle southeast, so it's a battle.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Ha ha, this is laughably sad for you snow heads - man, if I didn't know any better this was all engineered to maximize your torment.

Seriously, folks should get their heads around the possibility that despite a week's worth fervent exchanges over the matter, dim sun and nothingness may take place along the Ma Pike where flames were thrown over whether this would be a 3" or a 6" event. Wah wah wahhhh, goes the sad trumpet.

I won't go so far as to forecast that but just behind the scenes, this is starting to like a joke - for many of the reasons I outlined yesterday at this time.

Just more justification for this Meteorologist opinion that we are well entrenched into the futility time of the year, and yes, it arrived 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal. I believe that is adversely affecting folks' ability to see this pattern for what it is, as many still "feel" perhaps entitled to a better result. So they hold on and hold on. I don't know, but if that is the case, this pattern just is out to get you, and end this winter - probably painfully if you don't accept this for what it is.

The other problem is that I think that a cold season with repeating bad model performance (regardless of source) has left folks hungry for a system that shows up at D10, sticks, and verifies; such that the full spectrum in the science-emotion marriage can play out untainted.

This has not been that year. The models have routinely demonstrated that regardless of the cause, the general circulation system has been very difficult to manage prognostically. I read an off hand HPC Meteorologist's comment recently that essentially boiled down to this being caused by La Nina versus the -AO. That may very well be, as it in a sense it caused a split Hadley Cell, as though you have two northern Hemispheres, one above 40 N, one below - which dominates? Most than half that snow across that ~45 days worth of winter assault was at time forecast to not exist, even as near as 3 days in, in a few cases. People didn't really get a chance to "enjoy" the run up time periods to system. Everyone had to wait, biding time, hoping to be pleasantly surprised - well, it worked out in favor of the snow geese. The pattern has evolved since than into one that appear less prone to resulting in snow, "accidentally" if you want to call it that.

The -EPO may help. It is interestingly well-depicted by even the 00z ECM ensemble mean, yet that cluster has a decidedly different sensible impact resulting from, for the NE U.S.. The GFS severs episodic ridge nodes that ripple SE over Canada, confluence associated drives +PP that keep the mean polar boundary just S enough to offer those in the Winter Betty Ford Clinic, a fix or two. The ECM on the other hand says no go, and brings about the worst plausible ending and shamefully so, to an otherwise diamond of a winter: Rain, cold, rain, cold, rain, cold, no snow per course, rinse repeat, season ends as we terminate (no doubt) into Easter's cut-off west Atlantic low that ruins the first half of summer... oh, wait, sorry -

Anyway, I'm so done with this. The whole uncertainty and challenge, what a bore now. May 25th last year was 98F at many climo sites that day, and later that night a severe containing MCC rumbled S through the area, and a leading single isolated cell with a meso moved straight over my house with strobe lightning and nickle hail. That's what I'm ready for. Not hemming and hawing over whether this that or the other winter result will happen, particularly if they all prove a waste of time - like Monday is trying desperately to become.

Great post John particularly the first few paragraphs. Happened last year too and when some are digging out from a few inches we will be hearing about endless winter.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

LOL, I think some people think that. It's ok to call us out, if you disagree...that's all I meant. It's an open board meant to talk wx.

The vortex was there, but it has moved more to the se, especially since yesterday. It's tough because past experience with a Plains low or swfe has shown that these have a tendency to move north in successive model runs more often than not, but this guy is a little different, because of the PV. I'm not a fan of these systems, because they always have tricks up their sleeve. If that arc of moisture doesn't weaken as progged or moves just a little further north..it could mean the difference between a dusting and 5". The opposite also applies.

Many fell into the trap. Especially this year past results have no bearing on future performance.

It's not over yet and we all need to remember that but interesting that the rgem went down this road firsr

[cpickett79]

Pete is cursing the blashemy of many a poster.

if march isn't snowy and features rain/ cold / rain/ cold like early mid december than the board will be a scary place to be ....at least until we are beaten into submission and are at the point where we get excited over a 1-2 inch snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

I think we had competing signals. We had the general tendency in the La Nina which favors trends north and worked in the event of the 5th and certainly last weekend's clipper. Then we have the PV and the cold high to the north that models sometimes underestimate...... I guess the top off was the energy was hanging so far west this time...not able to overwhelm and trend north...just getting the squish job.

You're sw of ALB right?? This could still be a nice event for you.

Yeah that's the battle. I'm going to wait until the euro comes out and go from there.

[Logan11]

If you believe that winter is essentially finished then that is a valid reason to tune out. But we might as well just give up on the wx altogether then for about three months because absent late season snow threats, the wx is generally useless until May sometime when some decent convective threats may begin to emerge.

So bottom line ...I don't wish for Spring in February or March because all it will bring is 48F and rain..... It won't bring warm sunny days and flowers. More like foot deep mud and chilling wind swept 45F rain.....

Ha ha, this is laughably sad for you snow heads - man, if I didn't know any better this was all engineered to maximize your torment.

Seriously, folks should get their heads around the possibility that despite a week's worth fervent exchanges over the matter, dim sun and nothingness may take place along the Ma Pike where flames were thrown over whether this would be a 3" or a 6" event. Wah wah wahhhh, goes the sad trumpet.

I won't go so far as to forecast that but just behind the scenes, this is starting to like a joke - for many of the reasons I outlined yesterday at this time.

Just more justification for this Meteorologist opinion that we are well entrenched into the futility time of the year, and yes, it arrived 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal. I believe that is adversely affecting folks' ability to see this pattern for what it is, as many still "feel" perhaps entitled to a better result. So they hold on and hold on. I don't know, but if that is the case, this pattern just is out to get you, and end this winter - probably painfully if you don't accept this for what it is.

The other problem is that I think that a cold season with repeating bad model performance (regardless of source) has left folks hungry for a system that shows up at D10, sticks, and verifies; such that the full spectrum in the science-emotion marriage can play out untainted.

This has not been that year. The models have routinely demonstrated that regardless of the cause, the general circulation system has been very difficult to manage prognostically. I read an off hand HPC Meteorologist's comment recently that essentially boiled down to this being caused by La Nina versus the -AO. That may very well be, as it in a sense it caused a split Hadley Cell, as though you have two northern Hemispheres, one above 40 N, one below - which dominates? More than half that snow across that ~45 days worth of winter assault was at times forecast to not happen, even as near as 3 days in, in a few cases. People didn't really get a chance to "enjoy" the run up time periods to systems. Everyone had to wait, biding time, hoping to be pleasantly surprised - well, it worked out in favor of the snow geese. However, the pattern has evolved since than into one that appears less prone to resulting in snow, "accidentally" if you want to call it that.

The -EPO may help. It is interestingly well-depicted by even the 00z ECM ensemble mean, yet that cluster has a decidedly different sensible impact resulting from, for the NE U.S.. The GFS severs episodic ridge nodes that ripple SE over Canada, confluence associated drives +PP that keep the mean polar boundary just S enough to offer those in the Winter Betty Ford Clinic, a fix or two. The ECM on the other hand says no go, and brings about the worst plausible ending and shamefully so, to an otherwise diamond of a winter: Rain, cold, rain, cold, rain, cold, no snow per course, rinse repeat, season ends as we terminate (no doubt) into Easter's cut-off west Atlantic low that ruins the first half of summer... oh, wait, sorry -

Anyway, I'm so done with this. The whole uncertainty and challenge, what a bore now. May 25th last year was 98F at many climo sites that day, and later that night a severe containing MCC rumbled S through the area, and a leading single isolated cell with a meso moved straight over my house with strobe lightning and nickle hail. That's what I'm ready for. Not hemming and hawing over whether this that or the other winter result will happen, particularly if they all prove a waste of time - like Monday is trying desperately to become.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks to all of the mets and knowledgeable/level headed folks. I do enjoy reading and being educated by what you have to say.

I for one, see no real need to become emotionally invested (within reason) in the weather (although I do hate the really hot and humid stuff). I hope those who chest bump one way or the other learn some humilty along the way. Such a complex atmosphere is hard to understand even with the best technology and education.

And for those throwing barbs at each other, I hope compassion and kindness are what comes back to you.

Can someone help me off this darned soapbox... oh, wait, I have a high-horse that I can climb off of...

[Damage In Tolland]

mattnoyes Matt Noyes Casual Mon AM snow estimate : 1-3" Central VT/Lakes Region/Srn ME to MA Pike, 3-5" Pike to SCoast

[HoarfrostHubb]

mattnoyes Matt Noyes Casual Mon AM snow estimate : 1-3" Central VT/Lakes Region/Srn ME to MA Pike, 3-5" Pike to SCoast

That sounds about right... 1" for me or bust

[Logan11]

I'll be sure to rub it in tomorrow as I savor my 2 inch blizzard.

Great post John particularly the first few paragraphs. Happened last year too and when some are digging out from a few inches we will be hearing about endless winter.

[dryslot]

Have not been on since yesterday and i see that PV really shoves this storm south, Looking at flurries here, Guess we will have to wait until next weekend for another chance up here

[Damage In Tolland]

Andy..what are your accum ideas for SNE? I like 4-6 ..50 miles either side of the pike..sharp cutoff to north

[Logan11]

More west ..... I'm just about 25 miles due west of KALB ...the airport.

You're sw of ALB right?? This could still be a nice event for you.

Yeah that's the battle. I'm going to wait until the euro comes out and go from there.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is back to that quick milder day on Thursday, and then front moves south, followed by a juicy low pressure. The euro ensembles weren't far from that, actually.

[dendrite]

Yeah...I said last night that I'd take the 00z GFS and run for mby for now obvious reasons. You can't win'em all. Fri/Sat has a lot more potential for NNE with no PV to rear its ugly head although we'll probably deal with ptype issues when all is said and done.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS is back to that quick milder day on Thursday, and then front moves south, followed by a juicy low pressure. The euro ensembles weren't far from that, actually.

Rain?

[Logan11]

With the PV gone...the fear would be that the "trend north" signal will run rampant again late week....

Yeah...I said last night that I'd take the 00z GFS and run for mby for now obvious reasons. You can't win'em all. Fri/Sat has a lot more potential for NNE with no PV to rear its ugly head although we'll probably deal with ptype issues when all is said and done.

[CoastalWx]

Rain?

Ice and snow actually, but we are getting out there.