CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Hey do you know what happened to Garrett? Did 61 get rid of him? Yeah he got canned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New SREFs seem quite a bit drier than 3z.. Just barely .1'' up to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not exactly what I was hoping to wake up to, but hopefully the 12z models bump further north a hair. Even the Rev struggles to see 3-5'' if the 6z/Euro have the right idea. Me neither. I'll be happy to get an inch. Enjoy, south coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SREFs shifted south....now only bring the 0.25" line from MA/CT/NY border ESE to PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The rant was funny but its funnier that its true. He can cherry pick the posts all he wants, but I think many of us said that this next storm was not going to be huge and that next week offers a warmer solution. Of course there will be weenie posts, but claiming winter is over is foolish...even if I don't see another flake..I'd never say that. Climo is another 18-20" or so from Feb 1st, on. If you only get "climo" and think winter is over because you don't expect 60" additional, well sorry for you. I don't see overwhelming evidence that the pattern sux, and to me it looks active. Of course not every low will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Me neither. I'll be happy to get an inch. Enjoy, south coast.. Yeah, maybe we get a north bump from the models today, but it doesn't seem overly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Tuned my skis yesterday and re-glued my skins. Headed out soon. Nice. We've gone from months of luscious powder skiing to combat skiing. One thing about growing up skiing New England you quickly acquire adaptive ski techniques. I'll welcome anymore snow that falls. Dust on crust is better than plain crust.lol Picked up a little yesterday, hoping for a little more tonight/tomorrow. I really get a kick out of guys like BenchmarkBoy that cancel Winter in February, the beginning of February nonetheless.Wow.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 That PV is really messing around with things, like we talked about yesterday. It's just not the classic swfe with that thing there. I definitely didn't expect a shift south from yesterday, but it could be true. We'll still have a pretty decent shield of waa snow, so that needs to be watched. Lets see what the 12z runs do. WAA snows sometimes are more widespread, but storms that move out to the ese always screw eastern and northeast mass. That's what I don't want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ryan's new blog.. Monday Morning Snow Posted on February 20, 2011 by ryanhanrahan| Leave a comment Not a big snowstorm but enough to remind us that it’s still winter. Overnight our computer models cut back on their precipitation forecast a bit but there are still several signals showing a couple inches of snow. I’m expecting 3″-5″ of snow statewide with the heaviest occurring during the Monday morning commute. Strong warm advection with a tight thermal gradient along with good dendritic growth and a deep, saturated column may deliver snow to liquid ratios in excess of the typical 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New NAM looks like it's going to bump south if anything. The SE ridge is pumping up on the analysis...but the PV is also becoming more crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ryan's new blog.. Monday Morning Snow Posted on February 20, 2011 by ryanhanrahan| Leave a comment Not a big snowstorm but enough to remind us that it’s still winter. Overnight our computer models cut back on their precipitation forecast a bit but there are still several signals showing a couple inches of snow. I’m expecting 3″-5″ of snow statewide with the heaviest occurring during the Monday morning commute. Strong warm advection with a tight thermal gradient along with good dendritic growth and a deep, saturated column may deliver snow to liquid ratios in excess of the typical 10:1. yeah still thinking 3-5" here in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 [wow hpc does not give us any love for four inches...looked so snowy last night...well maybe it wont get sheared out as much as forecasted...we certainly have pleny of cold air in place. Yeah...and to think..I was crucified three days ago for talking about how the next 10 days would pan out because I did not cite any evidence. The evidence is about to present itself. Like I said days ago... 1. this first piece of energy would weaken considerably and get sheard to the point that its totals form the midwest would be halved at least. I said this first event would bring 1-2 inches. 2. Everybody was on here claming how we need to give the second piece of energy time to come north because "that has been the trend" well...that storm will bring snow about as far north as Cape Map NJ...guess that stayed soulth like I said as well. 3. I then went on to talk about the lat week major warm up with a drenching lakes cutter and I was called "stupid" and told that "my time allowed to participate on this forum would be short" Well, late week looks like it get to near 50 in some places with 18 hours of rain and two days of well above normal temps. As I have said...on this board, withough a meteorology degree, you will get crucified for predicing anything but "big winter" . but if you call for heavy snow and cold...do not worry...no evidence or weather background necessary...just say it over and over and slap a few emoticons on there and you will be fine...may not come true...as it will be seen this week..but you will never b e called "stupid" or a "troll." I am going to see how I fare on these three events and then take it from there. i think this is the biggest weakness on a otherwise great board. It especially keeps new people from wanting to post. we can sugarcoat it ...but it's true. regarding your 1-2 inch call.... i wouldn't count my chicken's before they hatch...tommorrow's event isn't a done deal regardless of what hpc forecasts also and on a separate note i do have to hand it to the rev for being so consistent with both his running this winter and his delusion into thinking his forecasts are consistently accurate it's still windy and cold as hell out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Andy! What's your current thinking for the Berks?TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nice. We've gone from months of luscious powder skiing to combat skiing. One thing about growing up skiing New England you quickly acquire adaptive ski techniques. I'll welcome anymore snow that falls. Dust on crust is better than plain crust.lol Picked up a little yesterday, hoping for a little more tonight/tomorrow. I really get a kick out of guys like BenchmarkBoy that cancel Winter in February, the beginning of February nonetheless.Wow.lol I'll say this, outside of the usual upslope areas in VT it has not been a spectacular winter for NNE ski areas. The cross country and downhill skiing around here has been much better than a lot of NH and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 New NAM looks like it's going to bump south if anything. The SE ridge is pumping up on the analysis...but the PV is also becoming more crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'll say this, outside of the usual upslope areas in VT it has not been a spectacular winter for NNE ski areas. The cross country and downhill skiing around here has been much better than a lot of NH and Maine. Where have you skied this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Where have you skied this season? Berkshire, Stratton and Magic have all been good no complaints. Have not gotten up to Central Vt. Wildcat, Bretton Woods, Sunday River were just ok - when I was there. but to be fair that was all within the same week. Today is a local cc/bc day for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Look at this branch/twig disaster..This is all from the wind yesterday...my entire yard looks like this..Hours and hours of cleanup in April..days and days that could have done some real damage if it had hit that shed. Luckily it missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah NAM is def south at 12z tomorrow. Like Nick said, Ridge is pumped up a bit, but PV is moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 that could have done some real damage if it had hit that shed. Luckily it missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 That PV is really messing around with things, like we talked about yesterday. It's just not the classic swfe with that thing there. I definitely didn't expect a shift south from yesterday, but it could be true. We'll still have a pretty decent shield of waa snow, so that needs to be watched. Lets see what the 12z runs do. WAA snows sometimes are more widespread, but storms that move out to the ese always screw eastern and northeast mass. That's what I don't want to see. Yeah. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah NAM is def south at 12z tomorrow. Like Nick said, Ridge is pumped up a bit, but PV is moving south. On the upside, NYC/LI may get better ratios than had been expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Now the NAM seems pretty amped up with the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On the upside, NYC/LI may get better ratios than had been expected. We get nada or just about nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Having that meat grinder sitting to our north was always a bit of a concern to me...probably saves me from a changeover but its going to serve as a dynamics killer too. Who knows though...can't say that guidance hasn't done sudden shifts this season. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We'll probably a bump back north with 18 and 00z guidance for you folks up north and east who are getting screwed to some degree. Again for MPM ..don't pay attn to qpf..look at bigger picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like a solid 1-2" for mby and most of Mass. Bring on the second wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 We'll probably a bump back north with 18 and 00z guidance for you folks up north and east who are getting screwed to some degree. Again for MPM ..don't pay attn to qpf..look at bigger picture Thanks, Kev. I just don't see this--no dynamics to help things along. My big picture is hoping that a miracle can happen wiht the second wave and that the late week event can come SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Didn't Will post that 00z Euro looked better than the 12z run did..esp for CT and RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Having that meat grinder sitting to our north was always a bit of a concern to me...probably saves me from a changeover but its going to serve as a dynamics killer too. Who knows though...can't say that guidance hasn't done sudden shifts this season. Lol. Yeah that was preventing me from thinking a classic swfe shift north, but I did think it would lift north just a little. Who knows though. Probably a nice event for CT anyways. I just don't like situations where the precip shield has that wnw-ese look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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