Mr Torchey Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nice.......**** the bed has special meaning for me...... I've always liked 3-6" for this one Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Everyone's had their busts this winter. Unless you are talking about a seasonal forecast. Ironically my worst bust was the 1/12/11 storm when I got nearly 20" and was forecasting 12-16"...ironic because I had been comparing it to a HECS. Just didn't think it would slow down enough to be a HECS with widespread 20" amounts but it did. Best storms were Groundhog Day and the fluff bomb on 1/21...beat guidance handily in both. 12/26 was "meh"...low end of forecast. The only one that I haven't done well on is the 12\26 event....I was terrible on that. 15-25" was my range and I got 1'. Of course, I only make calls for mby, so it's relatively easy for me to do well....someone like you forecasts for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 On another note, its absolutely brutal outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 16.0\5 G-27 mph....ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EC essentially holds firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EC essentially holds firm. Holds the band together a little better for SNE after 12z...esp CT/RI than the 12z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 When we hear the electic guitars and the drums faint in the distance we'll know it is almost upon us, and we'll look for the heaviest snowfall. We'll be on the look out for this band when it passes over. I think the band is called Snowshine, and I think it will make CT and RI its mosh snowpit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS clown map has an ORH fetish... But pretty good advisory totals over most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 06z NAM looks similar to 00z NAM...but won't be able to stay up for GFS...hopefully 12z looks a shade more robust. Think most of the area is looking pretty good though for a solid 3-5" with a stripe of 6-8" where the lucky band happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Everyone's had their busts this winter. Unless you are talking about a seasonal forecast. Ironically my worst bust was the 1/12/11 storm when I got nearly 20" and was forecasting 12-16"...ironic because I had been comparing it to a HECS. Just didn't think it would slow down enough to be a HECS with widespread 20" amounts but it did. Best storms were Groundhog Day and the fluff bomb on 1/21...beat guidance handily in both. 12/26 was "meh"...low end of forecast.1/26-27 was actually not bad. I could have backed off a lot worse than I did when the models tried to steal it from us only to get it back. I didn't forecast for every storm, but Round 2 of Groundhog day was probably the better ones for me. I went pretty conservative for BOS, and it worked out fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looks like tonight/tomorrow may really not play out at all up this way. Too bad the wind will be dying down or else it would keep my cars snow free lol. BOX's AFD comment about the new NAM/SREF have really dulled my enthuisasm. Not that it was ever going to be huge. I'll take my inch or two and move on. Better than none. Hated the "warm rain" description they gave to the EC. With the GFS seemingly moving toward a warmer solution (I think), this does not bode well. Can Bob start the next thread? We need some major-league juju. 8.3/-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I still like 4-6 with lollis to 7 or 8. And I admit now the end of week storm looks brutal..you wanna wipe out a snowpack..that's how you do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I still like 4-6 with lollis to 7 or 8. And I admit now the end of week storm looks brutal..you wanna wipe out a snowpack..that's how you do it. GFS looks warmer now....AWT..lol. It's only a 1 day deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The Euro ensembles also try to show an inside runner on Sunday, but it looks like a deal where it goes near SNE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS looks warmer now....AWT..lol. It's only a 1 day deal. Isn't it like a 36-48 hour 50-55 rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I had to cut my run short this morning. It was so f'ing cold with the wind. It was 8.8 when I left and I was running right into the teeth of 30-40mph winds..Brutal.. Only did 4 miles which pisses me off..but I may not have made it if I hadn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I had to cut my run short this morning. It was so f'ing cold with the wind. It was 8.8 when I left and I was running right into the teeth of 30-40mph winds..Brutal.. Only did 4 miles which pisses me off..but I may not have made it if I hadn't Baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I still like 4-6 with lollis to 7 or 8. And I admit now the end of week storm looks brutal..you wanna wipe out a snowpack..that's how you do it. Kevin--what are you seeing to suggest that anywhere in New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Isn't it like a 36-48 hour 50-55 rainstorm? 12 hrs of rain. Thursday turns milder verbatim and Friday is warm. Trust me, I don't want it...but this is how it looked for days. Hope it's wrong, but I don't think so. The pattern supports it. GFS too progressive with the cold front yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12 hrs of rain. Thursday turns milder verbatim and Friday is warm. Trust me, I don't want it...but this is how it looked for days. Hope it's wrong, but I don't think so. The pattern supports it. GFS too progressive with the cold front yesterday. Might work nicely for Andy and Rick, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 D6 cutter is not too bad, infact might be ice in the deep interior. It's the cutters beyond that to look for the torch. Tomorrow also may be the final snow event for SW NE this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 D6 cutter is not too bad, infact might be ice in the deep interior. It's the cutters beyond that to look for the torch. Tomorrow also may be the final snow event for SW NE this winter. I could see that. In fact, it could trend a little colder, but the mega snow and ice the GFS had yesterday just seemed far fetched. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Best fronto looks like it's down here.....for now.....you are pissed because I am going to get more snow than you Will..... are you really the one who is pissed cuz there won't be enough to cancel school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Kevin--what are you seeing to suggest that anywhere in New England? Didn't you read any of the posts overnight? Your area is too far north..but still should get 2-4 or so. Good fronto forcing, favorable track , ratios should yield a solid snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 12 hrs of rain. Thursday turns milder verbatim and Friday is warm. Trust me, I don't want it...but this is how it looked for days. Hope it's wrong, but I don't think so. The pattern supports it. GFS too progressive with the cold front yesterday. I wonder if we get something like a mild showery deal Friday..the first wave pulls the front south and the 2nd wave late in the weekend goes south with snow/ice. Long range still looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Look at this branch/twig disaster..This is all from the wind yesterday...my entire yard looks like this..Hours and hours of cleanup in April..days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I wonder if we get something like a mild showery deal Friday..the first wave pulls the front south and the 2nd wave late in the weekend goes south with snow/ice. Long range still looks great Ensembles backed off on the cold last night, but I think we'll see swings back and forth given the continued troughing in the west, fighting with the -EPO. There will be storms, but not every storm may be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Ensembles backed off on the cold last night, but I think we'll see swings back and forth given the continued troughing in the west, fighting with the -EPO. There will be storms, but not every storm may be snow. being a tea leaf reader this bascially means long range looks crappier than yesterday... continued troughing in the west = crap for SNE snow to rain scenario's or rain to rain or we thread the needle with all snow. can't we do better....i thought early march was setting up to be very nice around here....not "decent". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Lots of elevated convection in the Plains. 12zs runs will be interesting. It's possible that the PV idea will keep the best stuff over southern areas, but models still peg some decent mid level RH and frontogenesis over the area. Models are still wavering around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 being a tea leaf reader this bascially means long range looks crappier than yesterday... continued troughing in the west = crap for SNE snow to rain scenario's or rain to rain or we thread the needle with all snow. can't we do better....i thought early march was setting up to be very nice around here....not "decent". This is exactly how I did not want people to perceive my post...lol. I think it still looks good, but all I said (and this goes for the most epic patterns) is to look out for storms with ptype problems or rain. I don't see any glaring issues, if one is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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