CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Watch it trend into a blizzard, lol. Seriously though, the pattern is fairly hostile for a cold event. The -EPO is our only hope to slide in just in the nick of time and keep this an overrunning event....but I think the chances of that are a lot lower than a warmer storm. Could have to watch for a storm trying to cut into NY State but then sfc low goes over SE MA...could be an icer for the interior in that type of solution. But I would be leaning warmer at this point. Yeah I agree... The pattern has a cutter kind of look to it. It's certainly possible things break right but I agree PDFs favor wet over white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What does that have to do with anything? It's relevant since you seemed to be taking a pot shot at those who thought that the event next week would be cold. I didn't have an opinion on it, myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Best fronto looks like it's down here.....for now.....you are pissed because I am going to get more now than you Will..... Lol...ok John. You might get 6" and I get 3.5", or maybes it you get 5.5" and I get 4.5" or maybe 6.0" vs 5.5"...I'll be losing a lot of sleep over that. Looks like its one of those nights where you hate most of the SNE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Best fronto looks like it's down here.....for now.....you are pissed because I am going to get more snow than you Will..... + in 1\4 of a mile visibility and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 It's relevant since you seemed to be taking a pot shot at those who thought that the event next week would be cold. The only shot I'm taking is at Kevin who flamed me earlier for forecasting 42 and showers on Friday. In fact i didn't post anything about it until Kevin posted about what a terrible forecast it was. Not to mention the fact I'm not a long range forecaster. I do it for fun once a year... I really dont think it's fair to hold a 4 month forecast against me lol. Not sure what your problem is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The only shot I'm taking is at Kevin who flamed me earlier for forecasting 42 and showers on Friday. In fact didn't post anything about it until Kevin posted about what a terrible forecast it was. Not to mention the fact I'm not a long range forecaster. I do it for fun once a year... I really dont think it's fair to hold a 4 month forecast against me lol. Not sure what your problem is. I have a problem with taking a shot at others for a missed forecast.....no one is perfect....if you felt he took it too personal, earlier, then you would have been better served to take it to PM because that post was kind of dic*ish imo.....maybe I viewed it out of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I have a problem with taking a shot at others for a missed forecast.....no one is perfect....if you felt he took it too personal, earlier, then you would have been better served to take it to PM because that that post was kind of dic*ish imo.....maybe a viewed it out of context. Posting "hmmmmmmm lol" was that bad? Seriously? It's an event no one really cares about or has given much thought to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I have a problem with taking a shot at others for a missed forecast.....no one is perfect....if you felt he took it too personal, earlier, then you would have been better served to take it to PM because that post was kind of dic*ish imo.....maybe I viewed it out of context. And what are you talking about? I'm not talking about anyones missed forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Posting "hmmmmmmm lol" was that bad? Seriously? It's an event no one really cares about or has given much thought to. Not sure about that, but maybe I overreacted......NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 And what are you talking about? I'm not talking about anyones missed forecast. Not specifically, no.....but you were speaking of the colder idea in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not sure about that, but maybe I overreacted......NBD. I don't think any of it is a big deal. Kevin did his typical rib shot of "well most mets would put a snowflake on the graphic"...sort of taking a shot at Ryan trying to a get rise out of him. So he fired back...its over now, lol. Not really a big deal. The whole thing was over a 7 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I have a problem with taking a shot at others for a missed forecast.....no one is perfect....if you felt he took it too personal, earlier, then you would have been better served to take it to PM because that post was kind of dic*ish imo.....maybe I viewed it out of context. There are times on this board when I feel like I'm reading posts between 13-year-old girls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I don't think any of it is a big deal. Kevin did his typical rib shot of "well most mets would put a snowflake on the graphic"...sort of taking a shot at Ryan. So he fired back...its over now, lol. Not really a big deal. The whole thing was over a 7 day outlook. Ok....I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I don't think any of it is a big deal. Kevin did his typical rib shot of "well most mets would put a snowflake on the graphic"...sort of taking a shot at Ryan trying to a get rise out of him. So he fired back...its over now, lol. Not really a big deal. The whole thing was over a 7 day outlook. Lol yeah I didn't even make any posts about it or even look at the event until this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Lol...ok John. You might get 6" and I get 3.5", or maybes it you get 5.5" and I get 4.5" or maybe 6.0" vs 5.5"...I'll be losing a lot of sleep over that. Looks like its one of those nights where you hate most of the SNE folks. Good,so 3-6" is locked in then You and I need to go out partying soon...before you get married Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Lol yeah I didn't even make any posts about it or even look at the event until this afternoon. I'm tired.....my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 There are times on this board when I feel like posting that I like to touch 13-year-old boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm tired.....my bad. No worries... I'll probably not make another long range forecast for fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Good,so 3-6" is locked in then You and I need to go out partying soon...before you get married Yeah I like 3-6"....and yes, you will do fine in this event and very well could get more than I do. The higher up ML frontogenesis is north of you (like 500mb-700mb range) which is why we are talking about potential for a little stripe of heavier snow...but you are closer to the low level forcing so you'll do well regardless unless this really sh**s the bed. The northern third of the precip shield can be boom or bust if that banding develops or fails to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 No worries... I'll probably not make another long range forecast for fun lol Nah....go ahead...I was only using that to illustrate the point that everyone is wrong on occasion and I didn't remember any other of your busts, off hand. I called for a snowy winter of 06-07 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Nah....go ahead...I was only using that to illustrate the point that everyone is wrong on occasion and I didn't remember any other of your busts, off hand. I called for a snowy winter of 06-07 lol Pretty much everyone busted on Feb 10, 2010...so you can always use that one if you are having trouble remembering a specific bust for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 In reference to some of the posts the past few days about forecasts, biases etc; I don't make predictions/forecats because I don't have the knowledge, confidence or skills but honestly, no one, human or computer model has had the best winter in terms of forecasts. That said I feel like we still have about 4 good weeks ahead of us to see some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Pretty much everyone busted on Feb 10, 2010...so you can always use that one if you are having trouble remember a specific bust for someone. I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 In reference to some of the posts the past few days about forecasts, biases etc; I don't make predictions/forecats because I don't have the knowledge, confidence or skills but honestly, no one, human or computer model has had the best winter in terms of forecasts. That said I feel like we still have about 4 good weeks ahead of us to see some surprises. Jerry, Steve and Pete have done well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I didn't. You only forecasted 2" for your backyard in that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You only forecasted 2" for your backyard in that one? I forget the exact range, but I know I was dead set against a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 There are times on this board when I feel like I'm reading posts between 13-year-old girls You are not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You are not alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah I like 3-6"....and yes, you will do fine in this event and very well could get more than I do. The higher up ML frontogenesis is north of you (like 500mb-700mb range) which is why we are talking about potential for a little stripe of heavier snow...but you are closer to the low level forcing so you'll do well regardless unless this really sh**s the bed. The northern third of the precip shield can be boom or bust if that banding develops or fails to develop. Nice.......**** the bed has special meaning for me...... I've always liked 3-6" for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Jerry, Steve and Pete have done well. Everyone's had their busts this winter. Unless you are talking about a seasonal forecast. Ironically my worst bust was the 1/12/11 storm when I got nearly 20" and was forecasting 12-16"...ironic because I had been comparing it to a HECS. Just didn't think it would slow down enough to be a HECS with widespread 20" amounts but it did. Best storms were Groundhog Day and the fluff bomb on 1/21...beat guidance handily in both. 12/26 was "meh"...low end of forecast.1/26-27 was actually not bad. I could have backed off a lot worse than I did when the models tried to steal it from us only to get it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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