ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looking at the BUFKIT soundings you could see the potential with a really potent burst of warm advection right around 12z and a saturated column. Seems like you could easily get 3 hours of 1-2" per hour rates where some ML frontogenesis sets up. Yeah the deep saturation has me fairly optimistic. One thing we don't want to see is dry air showing up in the mid-levels. Low levels will start dry but they shouldn't have a ton of trouble saturating with the BL flow turning more from E and even lightly SE for a time. If we start seeing pockets of drier air showing up in the mid-levels on the soundings then that's when we might have to cancel the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The mid levels have me bullish for parts of the area. Fook the qpf, mid level RH is where it's at. Yeah I love saturated mid levels and subsidence. That's where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah I love saturated mid levels and subsidence. That's where it's at. That's impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Big time squall in quincy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 That's impossible. True lol But I am concerned about the vertical velocities within the RH shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This is what I'm going with, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The mid levels have me bullish for parts of the area. Fook the qpf, mid level RH is where it's at. I feel like this is a bit of reverse of the Feb 1-2 event...we seem a bit more optimistic than the Boston TV mets where as during that storm we were wondering how anyone was going to get 1-2 feet of snow out of a SW flow event that lasts less than 6 hours before a dry slot. I'm certainly weary of that confluence to the north, but the mid-levels can often tell the story so much better than actual model qpf. The qpf looked way overdone on groundhog day and we kind of caught the day or two before. This current event has a very nice ribbon of deep saturation to the north of the open mid-level center...implying there could be a nice burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Looking at the BUFKIT soundings you could see the potential with a really potent burst of warm advection right around 12z and a saturated column. Seems like you could easily get 3 hours of 1-2" per hour rates where some ML frontogenesis sets up. In Worcester? Come on dude...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 The 18Z GFS showed what can be great about this pattern. The 0Z shows it's downside potential in the longer range. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 This is what I'm going with, FWIW I'd bump it up in E NY and western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The mid levels have me bullish for parts of the area. Fook the qpf, mid level RH is where it's at. I like the maps that you post here with the RH fields, vertical velocity, and thicknesses overlaid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 The mid levels have me bullish for parts of the area. Fook the qpf, mid level RH is where it's at. Excatly...but the same folks keep pissing on this. Nice burst of S-, here.....ground is coated, but even more so in Woburn, when I was droping my dad off....they got it a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 In Worcester? Come on dude...... No, directly over Norwalk, CT and not a mile further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Yeah he did and said somethnig about revising most of Mass as about an inch! He's wrong ......just like he was in that 6hr bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Canadians don't like us tonight. Both models (GGEM/RGEM) are ridiculously slow though...I wonder what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I feel like this is a bit of reverse of the Feb 1-2 event...we seem a bit more optimistic than the Boston TV mets where as during that storm we were wondering how anyone was going to get 1-2 feet of snow out of a SW flow event that lasts less than 6 hours before a dry slot. I'm certainly weary of that confluence to the north, but the mid-levels can often tell the story so much better than actual model qpf. The qpf looked way overdone on groundhog day and we kind of caught the day or two before. This current event has a very nice ribbon of deep saturation to the north of the open mid-level center...implying there could be a nice burst of snow. Absolutely....there was an epidemic of irresponsible forecasts flying before that event; is it asking for too much for pro mets to grasp the concept of mid levels driving the show.....Christ. They won't vomit on themselves as badly this time because the stakes simply are not high enough, but they are still going to be in for a suprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 BB calling for 1-3" Canadians don't like us tonight. Both models (GGEM/RGEM) are ridiculously slow though...I wonder what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 No, directly over Norwalk, CT and not a mile further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 No, directly over Norwalk, CT and not a mile further north. I know how to read model output Will....looks like you are a little pissed off, yes? Maybe we can catch you on snowfall for the season after all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 So they forecast 2-4", and instead 4-6" with a few 7" amounts show up... no one will care but the true believers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I know how to read model output Will....looks like you are a little pissed off, yes? Maybe we can catch you on snowfall for the season after all.... Not sure what the Worcester comment was for John. We've been posting soundings all night that show the deep RH field and talking about the best areas of ML frontogenesis not always matching up with model qpf. What would I be pissed off about? This is not a high stakes snow event, we're talking a 3-6" type event...and even if it was a much bigger event I generally keep my emotions out of it. Unless you can control the weather, pretty silly to get all worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ???? No its not, at 30 hours its almost identical.... EDIT: The NAM is further north than the GFS at 36 5 posts\day is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Seems like the models all want to make the late week threat a warmer storm now...that was one we were going to try and get away with, but it looks like we probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 In Worcester? Come on dude...... I wouldn't be surprised if it was orh but right now I think ct is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Seems like the models all want to make the late week threat a warmer storm now...that was one we were going to try and get away with, but it looks like we probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Seems like the models all want to make the late week threat a warmer storm now...that was one we were going to try and get away with, but it looks like we probably won't. Hmmmmmmmmm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Hmmmmmmmmm lol You are the last guy who should be making a post like that after your seasonal outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Hmmmmmmmmm lol Watch it trend into a blizzard, lol. Seriously though, the pattern is fairly hostile for a cold event. The -EPO is our only hope to slide in just in the nick of time and keep this an overrunning event....but I think the chances of that are a lot lower than a warmer storm. Could have to watch for a storm trying to cut into NY State but then sfc low goes over SE MA...could be an icer for the interior in that type of solution. But I would be leaning warmer at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 You are the last guy who should be making a post like that after your seasonal outlook. What does that have to do with anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not sure what the Worcester comment was for John. We've been posting soundings all night that show the deep RH field and talking about the best areas of ML frontogenesis not always matching up with model qpf. What would I be pissed off about? This is not a high stakes snow event, we're talking a 3-6" type event...and even if it was a much bigger event I generally keep my emotions out of it. Unless you can control the weather, pretty silly to get all worked up. Best fronto looks like it's down here.....for now.....you are pissed because I am going to get more snow than you Will..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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