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Return of winter.....let's rock to the records..2/20-25.


weathafella

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I'll take the 0.25" QPF here on the GFS and run. It could be one of those cold, quaint, high fluff events with the mid-levels an isothermal -12C to -18C from 750-550mb.

That's a pretty impressive saturated column that far north...that's definitely a sign for optimism.

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i think this thing could really overperform for some.

I'm saying 3-5" but wouldn't be shocked if we see a 5-8" ribbon somewhere

That's what I'm thinking. Probably forecast advisory snow but certainly potential of a nice little stripe of 6-8"...especially if that very impressive ML fronto and forcing out in central NY/N PA can hold together at least partially as it moves into SNE. If it doesn't get shredded quite as quickly as models show, then we could def. see some over performing totals.

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That's what I'm thinking. Probably forecast advisory snow but certainly potential of a nice little stripe of 6-8"...especially if that very impressive ML fronto and forcing out in central NY/N PA can hold together at least partially as it moves into SNE. If it doesn't get shredded quite as quickly as models show, then we could def. see some over performing totals.

West is best? Closer to the ML fronto with a better chance of it remaining robust as it heads into SNE? (just tell me I can expect 8-12"new and I'll go to bed happy. Lie if you have to.)

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That's what I'm thinking. Probably forecast advisory snow but certainly potential of a nice little stripe of 6-8"...especially if that very impressive ML fronto and forcing out in central NY/N PA can hold together at least partially as it moves into SNE. If it doesn't get shredded quite as quickly as models show, then we could def. see some over performing totals.

Looking at the BUFKIT soundings you could see the potential with a really potent burst of warm advection right around 12z and a saturated column. Seems like you could easily get 3 hours of 1-2" per hour rates where some ML frontogenesis sets up.

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Well I'm happy tonight. The torch is well behind us. It's frigid outdoors with some flakes flying...coating now on the deck. Snow on the way, generally good pattern and potentially favorable overrunning events until we get a big coastal bomb. My forecast officially verifies for BOS by dawn Monday and I'm busting low by Noon.

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That's what I'm thinking. Probably forecast advisory snow but certainly potential of a nice little stripe of 6-8"...especially if that very impressive ML fronto and forcing out in central NY/N PA can hold together at least partially as it moves into SNE. If it doesn't get shredded quite as quickly as models show, then we could def. see some over performing totals.

The mid levels have me bullish for parts of the area. Fook the qpf, mid level RH is where it's at.

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