cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 snow about to rotate down from the N ..sn- from pepperel to methuen up to amesbury ...coming on down..wind...howling like a fookin' wolf out there. shopping cart pushed thru the parking lot on wind energy dinging off cars..... gonna be blizz like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not at all...I think we can all guess who it was aimed at. Lock the snowiest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 There's definitely a little room for skepticism on this event, but I think overall there is more pointing toward a decent little snowfall than there is against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 10/-3, flurries, the wind has died down a bit but still very blustery. Feel that this one will produce out here. Like being West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Lock the snowiest model I'd ask you to be me, but I'll never see the beer from the last bet that I beat you in....all trolling, no game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 10/-3, flurries, the wind has died down a bit but still very blustery. Feel that this one will produce out here. Like being West. remember the last time you were bearish on a snow event. ...me neither lol is that snow reaching the ground around 128 belt and then west towad ayer, ma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'd ask you to be me, but I'll never see the beer from the last bet that I beat you in....all trolling, no game. if you lived in S plymouth by the water......and liked the snow.....don't you think you would be in a padded room by now. i would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Backed off accumulations for the northern half of the state. 3-5" for southern NH, and up to 6" over southwest NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 remember the last time you were bearish on a snow event. ...me neither lol is that snow reaching the ground around 128 belt and then west towad ayer, ma? With one or two exceptions they've all worked out pretty well this year.My favorite was the one that Etaunton told me I had little to no chance of seeing greater than 4". Can't remember exactly what storm it was X-mas miracle perhaps. Anyway, we got buried here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Its pretty rare for the southern tier of NY to get smoked and we don't get it as much on these isentropic lift systems, but maybe this is one of the few where it happens. I still like the idea of high end advisory though for most of the area with someone getting lucky on a narrow 6-8" type stripe. Whether that is in CT or closer to this area remains to be seen. The PV lobe will help keeping it suppressed but on the flip side we have a stout SE ridge and the robust system in the plains to try and make this come north. yeah i was thinking about that this morning with respect to how there's a level of difficultly in this one that might not seem apparent at first glance. i don't suspect we will have all the obnoxious thermal issues - or at least nowhere near the extent - leading to big p-type questions we had earlier this month...but it should make for a good challenge in trying to determine where the best axis of lift moves and how long it lasts. maybe somewhere inside a bounded area of ORH to KTOL to BDR to MRG jackpots with the best combo of ingredients? it's an interesting battle plus there is always the "seasonal trend" to consider/weigh. for areas further east i'd like to see the WAA hang on stronger and not see the 850 low unraveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yeah i was thinking about that this morning with respect to how there's a level of difficultly in this one that might not seem apparent at first glance. i don't suspect we will have all the obnoxious thermal issues - or at least nowhere near the extent - leading to big p-type questions we had earlier this month...but it should make for a good challenge in trying to determine where the best axis of lift moves and how long it lasts. maybe somewhere inside a bounded area of ORH to KTOL to BDR to MRG jackpots with the best combo of ingredients? it's an interesting battle plus there is always the "seasonal trend" to consider/weigh. for areas further east i'd like to see the WAA hang on stronger and not see the 850 low unraveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 yeah i was thinking about that this morning with respect to how there's a level of difficultly in this one that might not seem apparent at first glance. i don't suspect we will have all the obnoxious thermal issues - or at least nowhere near the extent - leading to big p-type questions we had earlier this month...but it should make for a good challenge in trying to determine where the best axis of lift moves and how long it lasts. maybe somewhere inside a bounded area of ORH to KTOL to BDR to MRG jackpots with the best combo of ingredients? it's an interesting battle plus there is always the "seasonal trend" to consider/weigh. for areas further east i'd like to see the WAA hang on stronger and not see the 850 low unraveling. Cool, jives with my thinking. Thanks for going on record with that Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 if you lived in S plymouth by the water......and liked the snow.....don't you think you would be in a padded room by now. i would. You are on fire tonight LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 if you lived in S plymouth by the water......and liked the snow.....don't you think you would be in a padded room by now. i would. Here comes a diatribe about how he'll ski in ME with family\friends and doesn't care how much snow he gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Why do I get the feeling Scoob40 is getting ready to make a snarky comment about me. Hope it's just me being parenoid.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 weenie flakes flyin ray anthing of sustance falling out of the heavens now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Here comes a diatribe about how he'll ski in ME with family\friends and doesn't care how much snow he gets. That always rings hollow to me. You know he probably has a snowball from every Winter since he was 5 stored in a special freezer, Each meticulously catalogued and taken out for viewing with the 'special gloves'.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 That always rings hollow to me. You know he probably has a snowball from every Winter since he was 5 stored in a special freezer, Each meticulously catalogued and taken out for viewing with the 'special gloves'.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i'm not saying no snow. LOL. was just saying in terms of best ingredients. and honestly, i'm just starting to look at this a bit more closely here this evening. i know other folks have dug deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 weenie flakes flyin ray anthing of sustance falling out of the heavens now? No, but it is flurrying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 No, but it is flurrying.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 THE BULK OF THE FA CAN EXPECT A 3 TO 8 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS FROM THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS THIS WILL LOOKS TO BE A LATE 3RD PERIOD AND 4TH PERIOD EVENT WITH PRIMARILY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS Nice, ALY on board. Just what the doctor ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i'm not saying no snow. LOL. was just saying in terms of best ingredients. and honestly, i'm just starting to look at this a bit more closely here this evening. i know other folks have dug deeper. Its also hard to over analyze the event until you are close in anyway...the models haven't been doing a good job at getting synoptic features in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 This cold means business...and now some snow flying. What a turn around in 30 hours....incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Tim Kelly on NECN thinking Litchfield Cty jackpot... Tornado warnings in Calif spawing Monday morning snows in SNE... amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 0Z/20 GFS is well north of NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 0Z/20 GFS is well north of NAM. ???? No its not, at 30 hours its almost identical.... EDIT: The NAM is further north than the GFS at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 ???? No its not, at 30 hours its almost identical.... EDIT: The NAM is further north than the GFS at 36 I post from the well past 36 hour view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS looks a lot healthier in the MLs than the NAM...definitely more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 GFS looks a lot healthier in the MLs than the NAM...definitely more robust. And mslp goes along 41N under us vs about 39.5 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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