Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Later next week is a head scratcher. I have a few different scenarios that I could see play out. It's temping to let the -EPO win out and do something like the GFS is doing. That is, have a weak coldfront move through on Thursday, just in time for a polar airmass to settle in for a long duration overrunning event. Or, have the Euro torch us with a cutter. A scenario that's possible, is something closer to the euro ensemble where we have a milder day with a fropa that may come through relatively dry. That's sets us up for a wave that moves in later next weekend. I'm just not completely buying something like the HPC has and a colder GFS scenario, however the thought of that is certainly there, so it would not be wise to completely rule it out. I hope and pray for the GFS to win here, I'm just not sure it will. Euro op is wrong as most can see. The Euro ens while not the best scenario makes the most sense. The GFS is wrong with the front south and 3 days of snow. If we can get away with one day in the 40's and then overrun with snow like the Euro ens..that would be fine..and then it's weeks and weeks of non stop cold and winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The 18z GFS is a 2-4 maybe 3-5 deal from ORH-BOS, south. My comment was to let things transpire for another 24 hours, because we are still seeing some shifts, and this may still come north a tad...as SREFs indicate. The PV will have a say, but I'd watch for it. Agreed but technically speaking there is another possibility too which is that it could still bump south. Not a forecast, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I just want to see everything whitened. It's really nasty looking here. Lots of grass in the typical sun torched spots, but this is now many of the south facing lawns. It's funny driving along the e-w roads because there are the "haves" and "have nots"..lol. Keep that in mind when buying your next house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 im leaning that way to ryan is never bullish in my opinion unless everything is showing a major hit That's not really true actually. Major hits are hard to come by. I'm generally conservative and 9 times out of 10 that pays off. In this case I'm a bit more bullish than most models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I just want to see everything whitened. It's really nasty looking here. Lots of grass in the typical sun torched spots, but this is now many of the south facing lawns. It's funny driving along the e-w roads because there are the "haves" and "have nots"..lol. Would you say BOS , in general, is snowcovered 100% or do you have enough holes to say <100%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Keep that in mind when buying your next house Luckily I don't have that issue right now..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Agreed but technically speaking there is another possibility too which is that it could still bump south. Not a forecast, just saying. Yeah that's possible, sure. Believe it or not, your longitude is somewhat of a benefit for you it seems. If I were a betting man and took today's model consensus, I wouldn't bet on a correction south..but I would not rule it out. I think there is a chance for a few ticks north. The PV will have a say, so I don't see the sleet line jumping to BOS or anything like that, as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Would you say BOS , in general, is snowcovered 100% or do you have enough holes to say <100%? I think in general, most of the city is snowcovered. If BOS were somehow totally wooded...it would be snowcovered for the most part. There are lots of south facing areas that have grass around here, but protected areas have maybe 8-12" it seems. This area is tough to gauge. 3 blocks away, it looks like Montreal since it's not as exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z gfs seems like a good starting point two days out. Boston etc on the edge of .25 which can easily translate to 10" maybe more. Jesus, give it a rest, already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's not really true actually. Major hits are hard to come by. I'm generally conservative and 9 times out of 10 that pays off. In this case I'm a bit more bullish than most models show. This has not been the winter to forecast coservatively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This has not been the winter to forecast coservatively Well, there have been several events the weenies on here have busted very badly. Phil has even commented to me how bad the weenie goggles have gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 This has not been the winter to forecast coservatively Except for Round 2 of the Groundhog Day storm. I think 80% of the storms have had great mid level low placements which implies going "bullish", but you can't go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Well, there have been several events the weenies on here have busted very badly. Phil has even commented to me how bad the weenie goggles have gotten. Yeah ..he commeneted that to me as well as how bad the conservsatives have been too. How come you aren't liberal in wx..but in everything else you are? I would think that would carry over to forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 great thunderstorm last night snow on the way just made my first captain and coke of the night and got a girl coming over how good can this weekend get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Except for Round 2 of the Groundhog Day storm. I think 80% of the storms have had great mid level low placements which implies going "bullish", but you can't go nuts. Yeah exactly. The big storms this year have generally featured very favorable tracks that would make most forecasters go big. No doubt about that. There have been 2 or 3 smaller events where some have just gone off the deep end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Except for Round 2 of the Groundhog Day storm. I think 80% of the storms have had great mid level low placements which implies going "bullish", but you can't go nuts. Yeah, we actually saw some pretty good red flags about 24-48 hours out in the 2nd round of Feb 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, we actually saw some pretty good red flags about 24-48 hours out in the 2nd round of Feb 1-2. Yeah it was pretty clear the rug was going to get pulled out from under that one 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 LOL..Ryan has all rain and 40's end of week..not even mentioning a mix or chance at colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 well it is day 6 day7 so even if they changed it noone in the general public would even notice LOL..Ryan has all rain and 40's end of week..not even mentioning a mix or chance at colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 well it is day 6 day7 so even if they changed it noone in the general public would even notice Most mets would have just put a rain and snow symbol and a high in the mid-upper 30's and mention it could go either way. now folks see it and think oh big warm up and rainstorm coming that don't follow the weather like we do, and know either option is on the table at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah ..he commeneted that to me as well as how bad the conservsatives have been too. How come you aren't liberal in wx..but in everything else you are? I would think that would carry over to forecasting Weird because he told me he didn't think the moderates have been moderate enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Most mets would have just put a rain and snow symbol and a high in the mid-upper 30's and mention it could go either way. now folks see it and think oh big warm up and rainstorm coming that don't follow the weather like we do, and know either option is on the table at this point Thanks for telling me how to do my job. You don't even know where to get model QPF or average highs and lows from and you're telling me how to make a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks for telling me how to do my job. You don't even know where to get model QPF or average highs and lows from and you're telling me how to make a forecast? Just forecast a blizzard for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Just forecast a blizzard for Friday. that would shut up the weenies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 maybe put a flake inbetween but for now it was good Most mets would have just put a rain and snow symbol and a high in the mid-upper 30's and mention it could go either way. now folks see it and think oh big warm up and rainstorm coming that don't follow the weather like we do, and know either option is on the table at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 but i should also mentioni do see kevs point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Thanks for telling me how to do my job. You don't even know where to get model QPF or average highs and lows from and you're telling me how to make a forecast? Why are you always belittling me and attacking me. I know where to get all those things and my track record here shows I have astute met skills. I've beaten you and others many times over the years..and lost my share as well Your boss Brad would have mentioned a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 but i should also mentioni do see kevs point It certainly could trend colder but the op Euro, Euro Ensembles show a warmer scenario... and the op GFS is on the cold side of its ensemble members many of which look like the euro ens/op. My gut says milder and that's what i went with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Why are you always belittling me and attacking me. I know where to get all those things and my track record here shows I have astute met skills. I've beaten you and others many times over the years..and lost my share as well Your boss Brad wouldm have mentioned a mix Why are you so concerned over a 7 day forecast though? If he thinks the warmer solution is more likely, then its not a big deal to put up a 42 and rain or something. People have plenty of time to see additional more up-to-date forecasts for next weekend. I'm sure most are concentrating on Monday's snow threat anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 nws has me rain snow mix friday and saturday but allsnow friday night well see how it turns out though not a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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