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Severe Weather Threat... feb 24th-25


janetjanet998

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I am not very impressed with current storm situation. Low top storms so far, mostly below 25K so far.

LIT Skew-T does not look very impressive.

Lightning activity seems to be waning a lot now. Only a few strikes over the past 10 minutes with the main line moving into central AR. I believe that earlier cool boundry has stablized the atmosphere too much in that area.

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The seems to be an upstick the last 10 mins or so..

also this

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0212 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242012Z - 242145Z

WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS NERN AR/SRN TN WITH

SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS CONTRIBUTING TO

STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPENING CU FIELD. LATEST

SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER NWRN AR AND

THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF MO LATER THIS

EVENING BEFORE LIFTING INTO WRN KY. IT APPEARS FURTHER RECOVERY IS

POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW BUT ONGOING

CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT GREATER INSTABILITY FROM

DEVELOPING INTO KY. EVEN SO...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE

ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH

ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG/SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT

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I am not very impressed with current storm situation. Low top storms so far, mostly below 25K so far.

LIT Skew-T does not look very impressive.

Lightning activity seems to be waning a lot now. Only a few strikes over the past 10 minutes with the main line moving into central AR. I believe that earlier cool boundry has stablized the atmosphere too much in that area.

We will have to see. The projected low level mass fields are expected to increase significantly along and just S of the warm frontal circulation 21-0Z associated with the dynamic/nocturnal developing LLJ. The main convective blob out W is nothing--and the LIT Skew is perfectly fine given the location.

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Not much, but a few small cells are trying to get going over SW TN and N MS.

Just the beginning. They should grow into much larger organized supercells after 21Z once the frontal circulation strengthens and the low level flow increases. Latest 18Z NAM has a much more veered wind profile w height through W TN than the previous runs.

post-999-0-05132300-1298578822.png

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14 TORNADO AR LA MO MS TN 242035Z - 250400Z

AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

40NNE DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 50SSE GLH/GREENVILLE MS/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /32NNE DYR - 30NW JAN/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO

STRONG S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. E/W WARM FRONT STILL

MOVING NWD THRU NERN AR/WRN TN WITH WARM SECTOR AIR MASS NOW

UNSTABLE AND NEARLY UNCAPPED. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR

MORE DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD

LEAD TO GREATER THREAT OF TORNADOES PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE

QLCS/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0239 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...MUCH OF AR...NRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...

VALID 242039Z - 242145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES.

STRONGER FORCING IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND

THIS APPEARS TO BE AIDING UPWARD GROWTH TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE

THAT STRETCHES FROM NRN AR...SWWD INTO TX BEYOND THE CURRENT TORNADO

WATCH...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER ALONG TRAILING SWRN FLANK. THIS FORCED

LINE IS SAGGING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 15-20KT AND WILL SOON PROGRESS INTO

A REGION OF STEEPER SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES THAT COULD ENHANCE UPDRAFT

INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH

SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT INTO THE MS DELTA REGION NEAR MEM BY 00Z.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

..DARROW.. 02/24/2011

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

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I am not very impressed with current storm situation. Low top storms so far, mostly below 25K so far.

LIT Skew-T does not look very impressive.

Lightning activity seems to be waning a lot now. Only a few strikes over the past 10 minutes with the main line moving into central AR. I believe that earlier cool boundry has stablized the atmosphere too much in that area.

I think I said last night that this whole thing just keeps inching further and further across TN as subsequent forecasts come out.

Seen it a million times, and it always looks like stuff ends up being somewhat further East than originally anticipated in TN.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

255 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 255 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLOVERPORT...OR 8

MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

HENDERSON...JACKSON...CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND CHICKASAW STATE

FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE

HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

255 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 255 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLOVERPORT...OR 8

MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

HENDERSON...JACKSON...CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND CHICKASAW STATE

FOREST.

I think that is the smallest TOR warned storm I can ever recall seeing....but it does indeed have a couplet

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Isn't that supremely ironic that the first warned cell of this episode includes Jackson?

no kidding. The cell is so small that the whole thing is probably the circulation, if you went just on radar.

Up to 62 IMBY and noticeably more humid, plus noticing a few small breaks in the mid deck.

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I really like the environment along the Tennessee border back into Arkansas. High shear with plenty of low level CAPE.

You can see how that discrete cell in Tennessee spun up right as it crossed the northern edge of the boundary (I love gradients), and dissipated once it got too far into the cold air.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

354 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

WEST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 352 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WINONA...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF

PERRYVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...

LAKE MAUMELLE... WILLIAMS JUNCTION... ROLAND...

PINNACLE MTN... MORGAN... MAYFLOWER...

MAUMELLE... MARCHE... LITTLE ITALY...

LAKE WINONA... CHENAL VALLEY... WYE MTN...

WYE... REFORM... PARON...

PALARM... NATURAL STEPS... WILFORD PEAK...

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