msp Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 feels sticky here in CLL with 74/64 and a few brief showers so far. line of tstorms to the west quickly approaching brazos co. doesn't look like anything severe, but we've got some pretty gusty south winds out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I am not very impressed with current storm situation. Low top storms so far, mostly below 25K so far. LIT Skew-T does not look very impressive. Lightning activity seems to be waning a lot now. Only a few strikes over the past 10 minutes with the main line moving into central AR. I believe that earlier cool boundry has stablized the atmosphere too much in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 The seems to be an upstick the last 10 mins or so.. also this MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 242012Z - 242145Z WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS NERN AR/SRN TN WITH SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPENING CU FIELD. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER NWRN AR AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF MO LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING INTO WRN KY. IT APPEARS FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW BUT ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT GREATER INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING INTO KY. EVEN SO...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG/SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I've found a nice little hangout here in Waldo, AR where I'm sitting to see how things progress. We've got mostly cloudy skies here with breaks and a decent, but elevated CU field. Winds are gusting out of the south over 30 MPH kicking up quite a little dust storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I am not very impressed with current storm situation. Low top storms so far, mostly below 25K so far. LIT Skew-T does not look very impressive. Lightning activity seems to be waning a lot now. Only a few strikes over the past 10 minutes with the main line moving into central AR. I believe that earlier cool boundry has stablized the atmosphere too much in that area. We will have to see. The projected low level mass fields are expected to increase significantly along and just S of the warm frontal circulation 21-0Z associated with the dynamic/nocturnal developing LLJ. The main convective blob out W is nothing--and the LIT Skew is perfectly fine given the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not much, but a few small cells are trying to get going over SW TN and N MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Not much, but a few small cells are trying to get going over SW TN and N MS. Just the beginning. They should grow into much larger organized supercells after 21Z once the frontal circulation strengthens and the low level flow increases. Latest 18Z NAM has a much more veered wind profile w height through W TN than the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 14 TORNADO AR LA MO MS TN 242035Z - 250400Z AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NNE DYR/DYERSBURG TN/ - 50SSE GLH/GREENVILLE MS/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /32NNE DYR - 30NW JAN/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO STRONG S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. E/W WARM FRONT STILL MOVING NWD THRU NERN AR/WRN TN WITH WARM SECTOR AIR MASS NOW UNSTABLE AND NEARLY UNCAPPED. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD LEAD TO GREATER THREAT OF TORNADOES PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE QLCS/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...MUCH OF AR...NRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13... VALID 242039Z - 242145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES. STRONGER FORCING IS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE AIDING UPWARD GROWTH TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM NRN AR...SWWD INTO TX BEYOND THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER ALONG TRAILING SWRN FLANK. THIS FORCED LINE IS SAGGING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 15-20KT AND WILL SOON PROGRESS INTO A REGION OF STEEPER SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES THAT COULD ENHANCE UPDRAFT INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT INTO THE MS DELTA REGION NEAR MEM BY 00Z. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED LINE. ..DARROW.. 02/24/2011 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Cells beginning to fire ahead of the line in E TX and SW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I am not very impressed with current storm situation. Low top storms so far, mostly below 25K so far. LIT Skew-T does not look very impressive. Lightning activity seems to be waning a lot now. Only a few strikes over the past 10 minutes with the main line moving into central AR. I believe that earlier cool boundry has stablized the atmosphere too much in that area. I think I said last night that this whole thing just keeps inching further and further across TN as subsequent forecasts come out. Seen it a million times, and it always looks like stuff ends up being somewhat further East than originally anticipated in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99lsfm2 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Cells beginning to fire ahead of the line in E TX and SW AR. Looks like a party of two on Gr3, With Rick streaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 255 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 345 PM CST * AT 255 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLOVERPORT...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HENDERSON...JACKSON...CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND CHICKASAW STATE FOREST. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... Was just about to post that this storm needed a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 255 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... WEST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 345 PM CST * AT 255 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CLOVERPORT...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HENDERSON...JACKSON...CHICKASAW STATE PARK AND CHICKASAW STATE FOREST. I think that is the smallest TOR warned storm I can ever recall seeing....but it does indeed have a couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think that is the smallest TOR warned storm I can ever recall seeing....but it does indeed have a couplet and it just has to be in the general vicinity of Jackson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The line in East Texas is quickly beginning to take on more supercellular characteristics. I'm watching closely as I may start moving here shortly to position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I think that is the smallest TOR warned storm I can ever recall seeing....but it does indeed have a couplet And a very nice couplet, I would not be surprised if it puts down a tornado soon. Live coverage http://www.wreg.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 line across east texas getting stronger and looks like embeded cells forming within it also MEM well over the orginal high of upper 60's MEMPHIS INTL CLOUDY 76 62 62 S21G29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 and it just has to be in the general vicinity of Jackson. Isn't that supremely ironic that the first warned cell of this episode includes Jackson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Small rotation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Isn't that supremely ironic that the first warned cell of this episode includes Jackson? no kidding. The cell is so small that the whole thing is probably the circulation, if you went just on radar. Up to 62 IMBY and noticeably more humid, plus noticing a few small breaks in the mid deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 various strengths of rotation now in several cells in that line from N AR into east Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 WMC 5, the NBC affiliate for Memphis, has gone live. http://www.wmctv.com/global/category.asp?c=196691 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 EMA out of Madison county says funnel reports have come in (for what thats worth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I really like the environment along the Tennessee border back into Arkansas. High shear with plenty of low level CAPE. You can see how that discrete cell in Tennessee spun up right as it crossed the northern edge of the boundary (I love gradients), and dissipated once it got too far into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Cells starting to fire in nrn LA...that should be the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Shawn and I in W. Memphis AR. Awaiiting. Air here is semi muggy. 73/64. Things should go boom with the approach of impulse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Track Storms Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 354 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... WEST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 430 PM CST * AT 352 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WINONA...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF PERRYVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE... LAKE MAUMELLE... WILLIAMS JUNCTION... ROLAND... PINNACLE MTN... MORGAN... MAYFLOWER... MAUMELLE... MARCHE... LITTLE ITALY... LAKE WINONA... CHENAL VALLEY... WYE MTN... WYE... REFORM... PARON... PALARM... NATURAL STEPS... WILFORD PEAK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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