SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Would be a nice hit. Classic Winter Storm track for DET & DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Eh, I personally dont think snowcover alters storm tracks per say, but I give that possiblity a lot more credence then the "snow wont stick during the daytime" that will start popping up in earnest on the board. This is definitely not true. Try forecasting in spring after big storms where the models fail with initialization of the snow pack. It is pretty tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So there is credence to the theory that Winter Storms will sometimes follow the snow pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is definitely not true. Try forecasting in spring after big storms where the models fail with initialization of the snow pack. It is pretty tough. this from the morning AFD from DVN. A GOOD BET THAT THE SYSTEM MAY PULL UP FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS...AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LLVL THERMAL FIELDS AND SNOW COVER ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 this from the morning AFD from DVN. A GOOD BET THAT THE SYSTEM MAY PULL UP FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS...AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LLVL THERMAL FIELDS AND SNOW COVER ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. Well, considering there's also snow across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, I don't see how this comment makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 smells like a CR-RFD-MKE special. Probably not that far north unless it really takes on a negative tilt early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So there is credence to the theory that Winter Storms will sometimes follow the snow pack? Atmospheric dynamics is a long and complicated discussion--but it can be shown through various equations that the upper level jet can be related to the horizontal thermal gradient in the vertical. The greater the horizontal thermal gradient through a vertical layer--the stronger the wind aloft. The snow pack, especially in spring, can reinforce where the greatest thermal gradient is in the low levels and that can even feedback into the vertical through boundary layer mechanisms of diffusion, vertical convection, horizontal advection, etc. So yeah--the snowpack is important--and it can lead to weaker storms and/or upper tropospheric wave disturbances embedded in the jet level flow "propagating" along the low level thermal gradient aka baroclinic zone. Eventually larger rossby waves associated with the various teleconnection/large scale planetary circulation patterns will drive large scale flows through a deep enough layer of the atmosphere that can develop much larger storms that develop their own baroclinic zones. In other words--they not only develop off existing baroclinic zones--they make their own. So to a degree--a snowpack can result in storms continuously propagating along the low level baro zone where the upper jet resides--but like anything in weather--is only one small piece of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well, considering there's also snow across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, I don't see how this comment makes any sense. After tonight there is a bunch across Northern Indiana and Ohio, you are right, but not much over Northern Illinois, it would probably be influenced by the snowpack over Minnesota and Wisconsin before Indiana and Ohio, given geography. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ah, I had been waiting for somebody to comment on the "snow cover" factor. It never gets old. It never gets old because it is something that needs to be factored in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is definitely not true. Try forecasting in spring after big storms where the models fail with initialization of the snow pack. It is pretty tough. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Atmospheric dynamics is a long and complicated discussion--but it can be shown through various equations that the upper level jet can be related to the horizontal thermal gradient in the vertical. The snow pack, especially in spring, can reinforce where the greatest thermal gradient is in the low levels and that can even feedback into the vertical through boundary layer mechanisms of diffusion, vertical convection, horizontal advection, etc. So yeah--the snowpack is important--and it can lead to weaker storms and/or upper tropospheric wave disturbances embedded in the jet level flow "propagating" along the low level thermal gradient aka baroclinic zone. Eventually larger rossby waves associated with the various teleconnection/large scale planetary circulation patterns will drive large scale flows through a deep enough layer of the atmosphere that can develop much larger storms that develop their own baroclinic zones. In other words--they not only develop off existing baroclinic zones--they make their own. So to a degree--a snowpack can result in storms continuously propagating along the low level baro zone where the upper jet resides. Looks like Im gona have to bust out my meteo books. Baro..Thanks for the good write up! Your a wealth of knowledge to us home gamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Thanks for the info. I know I read it in AFD's but wasn't sure if it was a myth or what. I guess every storm is different but my thought was lows will track closely on the edges of snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Probably not that far north unless it really takes on a negative tilt early. Wouldn't take much of a northwest trend from the Euro or NAM to put that corridor into the heart of the snow. Maybe a 100 to 125 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Agree. I have had some memorable busts owing to model initialization fail with snowpacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like Im gona have to bust out my meteo books. Baro..Thanks for the good writes up! Your a wealth of knowledge to us home gamers. No problem. I do think sometimes it may be a bit overstated by mets--but there are situations where it warrants more attention than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Wouldn't take much of a northwest trend from the Euro or NAM to put that corridor into the heart of the snow. Maybe a 100 to 125 mile shift. Yes but both of those models are on the northern end of the envelope, no model right now is showing a track close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I have had some memorable busts owing to model initialization fail with snowpacks Yeah I have seen a few rainstorms that ended up being mix/ice due to the snow pack and low level thermal fields being misanalysed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yes but both of those models are on the northern end of the envelope, no model right now is showing a track close to that. Considering the problems well documented on here with the southern group of solutions, I'm trusting the northern solutions a lot more right now. I think it was Detroit's AFD that said it is a pretty likely bet this tracks through the Ohio Valley, which would be solid for the aforementioned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Considering the problems well documented on here with the southern group of solutions, I'm trusting the northern solutions a lot more right now. I think it was Detroit's AFD that said it is a pretty likely bet this tracks through the Ohio Valley, which would be solid for the aforementioned areas. Yes, a track through the northern side of Ohio valley doesn't yield a CR-RFD-MKE hit though, not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z GFS is gonna be like the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 ukie out to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yes, a track through the northern side of Ohio valley doesn't yield a CR-RFD-MKE hit though, not at all. I'm not saying it WILL happen this way, but you're the one discounting the possibility of it occurring. Our best track would probably be something like just north of St. Louis to Champaign to Fort Wayne, which is through the central or northern Ohio Valley region. Then again, I've always considered Illinois, Indiana and Ohio as encompassing the Ohio Valley, but I understand not everyone would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Is 0z UKIE farther north then the 12z UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Prins, could you post the hr 60 ukie if you can as well? Trying to see which way it's going, ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Prins, could you post the hr 60 ukie if you can as well? Trying to see which way it's going, ENE? 60hr...the 72hr 0z is a tad n and slower than the 84hr 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm not saying it WILL happen this way, but you're the one discounting the possibility of it occurring. Our best track would probably be something like just north of St. Louis to Champaign to Fort Wayne, which is through the central or northern Ohio Valley region. Then again, I've always considered Illinois, Indiana and Ohio as encompassing the Ohio Valley, but I understand not everyone would agree. The southern parts of those states are, STL to Champaign to FWA is much further north than those areas. Either way I am not expecting this to track that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ukie looks like it would imply an ENE track with that high dropping in from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 As said in the other thread about the storm exiting tonight. It has a bit to do with entry point in the plains and then blocking and ofcourse the snow cover. The AO/NAO is/has moved back up and thus a lessor chance of this being suppressed/staying south. Which leaves us with the entry point into the plains, snowcover and strength of storm. Chances are very high this one does not cut nearly as far nw as the one just leaving did ( should enter the Plains via Texas ) but it will end up farther north because of the lack of blocking and thus don't expect for it to come up to i70 ( for example ) and get turned east. How hard it cuts ( turns north once it gets into Texas ) will depend on how fast it develops/strengthens. Rarely ( always exceptions ) do you see a Texas low track over or west of here unless it was a bombing low/closed off. Now if it was to come out and track along the KS/OK line the chances go up for a cut over or west of here towards the Lake. With the trough coming into the west/rockies and then energy having to take the southern route near MX the system should emerge into the Plains in Texas. Basically it is a question of how strong will this thing get and how quick. I say that because it really should not feel the snowcover effects till reaching IL/IN etc. Best way ( not saying much ) for this to stay farther se and track across say TN/KY would be for it to stay very weak and that will still be hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 As said in the other thread about the storm exiting tonight. It has a bit to do with entry point in the plains and then blocking and ofcourse the snow cover. The AO/NAO is/has moved back up and thus a lessor chance of this being suppressed/staying south. Which leaves us with the entry point into the plains, snowcover and strength of storm. Chances are very high this one does not cut nearly as far nw as the one just leaving did ( should enter the Plains via Texas ) but it will end up farther north because of the lack of blocking and thus don't expect for it to come up to i70 ( for example ) and get turned east. How hard it cuts ( turns north once it gets into Texas ) will depend on how fast it develops/strengthens. Rarely ( always exceptions ) do you see a Texas low track over or west of here unless it was a bombing low/closed off. Now if it was to come out and track along the KS/OK line the chances go up for a cut over or west of here towards the Lake. With the trough coming into the west/rockies and then energy having to take the southern route near MX the system should emerge into the Plains in Texas. Basically it is a question of how strong will this thing get and how quick. I say that because it really should not feel the snowcover effects till reaching IL/IN etc. Best way ( not saying much ) for this to stay farther se and track across say TN/KY would be for it to stay very weak and that will still be hard to do. Yeah as I mentioned earlier, to see this thing cut hard left we would need it to take on a negative tilt very early and be very vigorous also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The southern parts of those states are, STL to Champaign to FWA is much further north than those areas. Either way I am not expecting this to track that far north. OK, thanks for the clarification. I always thought the Ohio Valley was the area between the Great Lakes and the Ohio River, which would include prime territory for a winter storm if a storm tracked through the northern sections of that region. The Ukie, Euro, and NAM all take a track through Central Missouri, Central or Southern Illinois, and Central Indiana I believe. It's them vs. the GFS and GGEM overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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