Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I would say to some degree it did with this mess that is starting to wind down here. Truthfully though the euro did great with it. Don't recall it going to extremes like the RGEM etc did with the crazy track to the MN/IA line. It did kinda **** the bed with temps a bit/too cold though which was odd. This alone though does give me hope for my backyard and his/bowme. ORD, MKE, YBY all look solid IMO. GFS as usual will be wrong/too far south...hence my thoughts that it'll trend north. Sucks for MBY, good for you guys. Maybe a little make up storm for all you that got "mixed on" with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 How much snow did you end up with? Hopefully it nudged up in to you area. Was quite comical how the models tried their hardest to miss you and leave me on the southern edge of a few inches. At least we came home to power. I'll take that anytime I wasn't here for the storm but it look like between 2 and 3" of frozen ball buster on driveway that's going to sat there until the snow plow guy can scrap it up. grass is all covered so that's nice and actually better than I expected. Played out just like that one storm I was talking about where me and my wife drove north to check out a storm 4 or 5 yrs back on a sunday when it was winding down. drive home today it looked like a lot of northern and central mke cty. got double or more than me and then the next county's north and north of mke had lollies of double digit totals. Just how i pretty much expected it to go down here. Tree outside my door here has some ice glazing but doesn't look like we got much ice as is usually the case. I got maybe 1-2" of LES. Synoptic snow stayed a couple counties south. Winds gusted to 70 mph though so that was pretty impressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z NAM vertabim would be a much bigger event. edit to say I haven't looked at the NAM to see if its south like the gfs or a northern outlier like euro. Joking aside the NAM and its northern solutions with the last storm didn't end up turning out too bad did it? I have no clue where this last storm tracked though and what models actually were good with the storm. I wanted to to say a 50-75 mile strip of 4-8" but that might be tough with the speed and temps. Looks like it will fall at night, not sure if that helps but it can't hurt later in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Joking aside the NAM and its northern solutions with the last storm didn't end up turning out too bad did it? I have no clue where this last storm tracked though and what models actually were good with the storm. I wanted to to say a 50-75 mile strip of 4-8" but that might be tough with the speed and temps. Looks like it will fall at night, not sure if that helps but it can't hurt later in Feb. MKX AFD did mention that with the swift movement of the storm, it would be difficult, but still possible, to get a warning event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm really digging the very tight baroclinic zone at 850mb. Not as tight as the Groundhog Eve blizzard, but very impressive nonetheless. 10C+ southern Illinois, and -7C or so in northwest Illinois at 850mb on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm really digging the very tight baroclinic zone at 850mb. Not as tight as the Groundhog Eve blizzard, but very impressive nonetheless. 10C+ southern Illinois, and -7C or so in northwest Illinois at 850mb on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 to this potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 How much snow did you end up with? Hopefully it nudged up in to you area. Was quite comical how the models tried their hardest to miss you and leave me on the southern edge of a few inches. At least we came home to power. I'll take that anytime I wasn't here for the storm but it look like between 2 and 3" of frozen ball buster on driveway that's going to sat there until the snow plow guy can scrap it up. grass is all covered so that's nice and actually better than I expected. Played out just like that one storm I was talking about where me and my wife drove north to check out a storm 4 or 5 yrs back on a sunday when it was winding down. drive home today it looked like a lot of northern and central mke cty. got double or more than me and then the next county's north and north of mke had lollies of double digit totals. Just how i pretty much expected it to go down here. Tree outside my door here has some ice glazing but doesn't look like we got much ice as is usually the case. In Tosa I would say we got about 4 inches so about twice what you got. It was neat watching the radar and seeing the northern part of the county just stay in the white. I94 was the dividing line for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Quoted.. Just incase.. But yeah i would put my money on the euro as it seems to have the hot hand again. Oh and the euro ensembles are a near match till 90hrs. At 96hrs the ensembles end up farther nw of the OP run. The ensemble mean tracks it to between Buffalo/Toronto and along the US/Canadian border unlike the OP run which takes it more easterly into NW PA/NY/Maine coast. Decent hit for MKE/Chicago/S.MI except maybe far se MI which would have mixing issues. Ensemble mean QPF.. .50 or better from se/S.IA to where IA/IL/WI meet on up to Moneyman and then east to Muskegon and Claire ene into Huron and Canada. .75+ from KC and along the IA/MO line and then to north side of Chicago near WI border on over to Grand Rapids and east to just north of Port Huron to Toronto/Buffalo. The 1 inch line runs along i94 in S.MI back to IN/IL/Lake MI to Peoria. 1.25+ from along the MI/OH line bending a little wsw to the Lake/Newton line to north side of St. Louis on south. If the op GFS corrects its feedback issue and still tracks it that far south, then I'll get a little more interested. Until then, it doesn't seem that the track can be given much weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If the op GFS corrects its feedback issue and still tracks it that far south, then I'll get a little more interested. Until then, it doesn't seem that the track can be given much weight. Hey? Starting to get worried? Remember, you owe us all $10 if GFS doesn't track north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hey? Starting to get worried? Remember, you owe us all $10 if GFS doesn't track north. Not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Not at all. So we know what we're judging against, the 18z track is roughly Fort Smith to the central KY/TN border to Washington DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The GFS's real problem is the lack of cyclonic "triggering". It becomes a wave that never really developes. Whether caused by feedback problems or poor intialization it is the outlier with the GGEM triggering the cyclone to far south as the other outlier. I think this storm will either be Chicago to Flint or LAF to TOL/DTW. Just depends on the track. fwiw..alot of the ggem ensembles are nw of the op...here's a look at hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z runs will be crucial tonight..it will give us insight on the upcoming week..If they fall in line tonight its a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 to this potential well i might see my first long-lead WSW in about 2 years, so that will be exciting. if the euro holds through tonight, ill be very excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z runs will be crucial tonight..it will give us insight on the upcoming week..If they fall in line tonight its a good start. Meh, I wouldn't put that much emphasis on these 0z runs. One caveat to that is if the EURO/UKIE go SE and/or the GFS stands pat while losing the feedback issues. I think that might be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I can assure everybody that this is not crucial in the slightest, but the 21z ETA trended significantly SE with this storm from its 9z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I can assure everybody that this is not crucial in the slightest, but the 21z ETA trended significantly SE with this storm from its 9z run. Crucial meaning it would be nice to get some reasonable agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Crucial meaning it would be nice to get some reasonable agreement. It wont happen until its comes onshore in a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Crucial meaning it would be nice to get some reasonable agreement. That wasn't meant as a shot at you. I just liked your choice of word and co-opted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 DTX A SYSTEM TRACK NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SEEMS REASONABLE WITHOUT EVEN MENTIONING THE PROBLEMS THE GFS SOLUTION HAS WITH GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION IN ITS SURFACE PRESSURE SOLUTION. ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, AND GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST, PREFER ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO OF DATA GATHERING BEFORE RAMPING UP TO THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE ECMWF, WHICH WOULD MEAN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR SE MICHIGAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z NAM is fairly similar to the 18z run, track wise at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 smells like a CR-RFD-MKE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Great track here with the Nam and it's deformation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Snow cover play a factor in track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ah, I had been waiting for somebody to comment on the "snow cover" factor. It never gets old. It was a question as I was not saying it would. I think I recall reading it's effects in some AFD's, but don't remember the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ah, I had been waiting for somebody to comment on the "snow cover" factor. It never gets old. Eh, I personally dont think snowcover alters storm tracks per say, but I give that possiblity a lot more credence then the "snow wont stick during the daytime" that will start popping up in earnest on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ah, I had been waiting for somebody to comment on the "snow cover" factor. It never gets old. Mets will vouch that it is indeed a factor. Not and overwhelming one. It's subordinate to the large scale pattern, dynamic forcing, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Eh, I personally dont think snowcover alters storm tracks per say, but I give that possiblity a lot more credence then the "snow wont stick during the daytime" that will start popping up in earnest on the board. kinda reminds me of the "snow breeds snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ah, I had been waiting for somebody to comment on the "snow cover" factor. It never gets old. Well it is funny because everything feeds back to the large scale flow. If models initialize incorrectly with the position--it can have a huge cascading effect under certain circumstances. It isn't trivial. Now that we are getting close to spring--these things become a bigger factor than in winter--especially in the 3-5 day range where the models may have multiple storms through the period. If they are wrong on where the snow flies--it will feedback even more to the remaining forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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