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Feb. 23-25th Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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At 180+ hours it really doesn't matter. I'd think you'd be fringed though vertbatim.

That thing has a very sharp cut off line. .50 line runs from near MSN to Green Bay and east while the 1 inch line is at the lake MI/IL/WI line and up to 2 inches just south and east of Chicago into IN/sw.MI. The .25 line runs from E.IA up to halfway between MSN and up to Rhinelander and the W.UP of MI with less to the west. .10+ from La Crosse to Ashland and notta to the west.

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Thinking a strip of 3-6" inbetween roughly ord and laf and far southern MI. Could be be farther north between me and monopoly$ but I have my doubts as of now.

Bowme, how did you do with the storm? I bet you got more than me like I told you before it.

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Thinking a strip of 3-6" inbetween roughly ord and laf and far southern MI. Could be be farther north between me and monopoly$ but I have my doubts as of now.

Ah me thinks this one could be yours. North trend hasn't failed in some time. How badly did you get screwed with this last storm?

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LOT AFD....merzlock is a good forecaster but don't get him saying the Euro is more bullish...it really backed off on QPF from the 0z run of the Euro.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE SRN

ROCKIES THUR MORNING. MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING

OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NEWD THUR-THUR NIGHT. GFS EJECTS THIS

SYSTEM AS A STABLE WAVE ENEWD TO THE S OF THE OH VALLEY...KEEPING

MOST PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC

ZONE...WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF VERY WEAK VERTICAL MOTION OVER IL/IN.

ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE OUT AS A MORE

ENERGETIC...NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A MUCH GREATER

THREAT OF PRECIP...BUT ALSO A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION THAT

WOULD LIKELY LIMIT ANY FROZEN OF FREEZING PRECIP TO AREAS NEAR THE

WI LINE. THE 12Z EURO LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS AND IS MUCH

MORE BULLISH ON PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX EVENT ACROSS MUCH

OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR AFTERNOON-THUR NIGHT. RESULT OF ALL THIS

IS TO BE NECESSARILY VAGUE AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS SYSTEM

DEFINITELY BEARS SOME WATCHING.

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LOT AFD....merzlock is a good forecaster but don't get him saying the Euro is more bullish...it really backed off on QPF from the 0z run of the Euro.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE SRN

ROCKIES THUR MORNING. MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING

OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NEWD THUR-THUR NIGHT. GFS EJECTS THIS

SYSTEM AS A STABLE WAVE ENEWD TO THE S OF THE OH VALLEY...KEEPING

MOST PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC

ZONE...WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF VERY WEAK VERTICAL MOTION OVER IL/IN.

ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE OUT AS A MORE

ENERGETIC...NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A MUCH GREATER

THREAT OF PRECIP...BUT ALSO A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION THAT

WOULD LIKELY LIMIT ANY FROZEN OF FREEZING PRECIP TO AREAS NEAR THE

WI LINE. THE 12Z EURO LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS AND IS MUCH

MORE BULLISH ON PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX EVENT ACROSS MUCH

OF THE FORECAST AREA THUR AFTERNOON-THUR NIGHT. RESULT OF ALL THIS

IS TO BE NECESSARILY VAGUE AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS SYSTEM

DEFINITELY BEARS SOME WATCHING.

I see he also fooked up on the NAM, re: precip type.

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Ah me thinks this one could be yours. North trend hasn't failed in some time. How badly did you get screwed with this last storm?

I would say to some degree it did with this mess that is starting to wind down here. Truthfully though the euro did great with it. Don't recall it going to extremes like the RGEM etc did with the crazy track to the MN/IA line. It did kinda **** the bed with temps a bit/too cold though which was odd. This alone though does give me hope for my backyard and his/bowme.

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Bowme, how did you do with the storm? I bet you got more than me like I told you before it.

How much snow did you end up with? Hopefully it nudged up in to you area. Was quite comical how the models tried their hardest to miss you and leave me on the southern edge of a few inches. At least we came home to power. I'll take that anytime

I wasn't here for the storm but it look like between 2 and 3" of frozen ball buster on driveway that's going to sat there until the snow plow guy can scrap it up. grass is all covered so that's nice and actually better than I expected.

Played out just like that one storm I was talking about where me and my wife drove north to check out a storm 4 or 5 yrs back on a sunday when it was winding down. drive home today it looked like a lot of northern and central mke cty. got double or more than me and then the next county's north and north west of mke had lollies of double digit totals. Just how i pretty much expected it to go down here. Tree outside my door here has some ice glazing but doesn't look like we got much ice as is usually the case.

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I will send everyone on this forum $10 if the GFS doesn't trend north.

Quoted..

Just incase.. :popcorn:

But yeah i would put my money on the euro as it seems to have the hot hand again.

Oh and the euro ensembles are a near match till 90hrs. At 96hrs the ensembles end up farther nw of the OP run. The ensemble mean tracks it to between Buffalo/Toronto and along the US/Canadian border unlike the OP run which takes it more easterly into NW PA/NY/Maine coast. Decent hit for MKE/Chicago/S.MI except maybe far se MI which would have mixing issues.

Ensemble mean QPF..

.50 or better from se/S.IA to where IA/IL/WI meet on up to Moneyman and then east to Muskegon and Claire ene into Huron and Canada. .75+ from KC and along the IA/MO line and then to north side of Chicago near WI border on over to Grand Rapids and east to just north of Port Huron to Toronto/Buffalo. The 1 inch line runs along i94 in S.MI back to IN/IL/Lake MI to Peoria. 1.25+ from along the MI/OH line bending a little wsw to the Lake/Newton line to north side of St. Louis on south.

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