on_wx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12Z Euro PTK: 0.71 all snow DET: 0.94 mostly snow DTW: 1.00...mostly snow TOL: 1.28 (0.5 at least is rain--->then more snow) ORD: .34 MKE: .15 Anything for YYZ if you don't mind me asking? (Toronto) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO is a bit SE of the 0z run, but still an ok hit for Chicago. LOW develops a bit east then where the 0z had it, hence the farther east track. SE MO-C. IL-C. IND-NE Ohio The 12z Euro is actually a good amount south of the 00z...or at least there is less precip in the cold sector. 00z Euro had 1.14" liquid at ORD, but the 12z only has 0.34". Not trying to have too much of an IMBY-focus...but there are some significant changes for a timeframe that is usually the Euro's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Way to narrow things down Lol yea well just thought I would be captain obvious for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The 12z Euro is actually a good amount south of the 00z...or at least there is less precip in the cold sector. 00z Euro had 1.14" liquid at ORD, but the 12z only has 0.34". Not trying to have too much of an IMBY-focus...but there are some significant changes for a timeframe that is usually the Euro's wheelhouse. It shifted by about 100miles, but the cold side is also drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It shifted by about 100miles, but the cold side is also drier. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 YYZ: 0.77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Anything for YYZ if you don't mind me asking? (Toronto) Time for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 156 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 VALID 12Z THU FEB 24 2011 - 12Z MON FEB 28 2011 ...CONSIDERABLE SOLUTION SPREAD AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY ARE EVIDENT IN THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN DETAILS AS EARLY AS DAY 4...WITH THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN MAINTAINING A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A CYCLONE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS... WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST IN PART INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...THEIR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z UKMET/00-12Z ECMWF/GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE THE LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...OR ABOUT 275 NM FARTHER NORTH...A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR ONLY A DAY 4 PREDICTION. IF TRUE...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM KANSAS TOWARD MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE DEVIATING SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE CONSENSUS TO JUSTIFY A QUICK TRANSITION OR PREFERENCE TOWARD THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 4-7. CONFIDENCE AS A WHOLE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DAY 3...BEFORE FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE DAYS 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Time for spring. Not until April 1st. There is some unfinished business to take care of. The last two Marches in downtown Toronto had no measurable snowfall. Time to fix that this year. So far, the Euro has displayed some good consistency with this upcoming potential system. Let's see what happens once the energy comes ashore in a few days. Should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Have a sneaking suspicion that we may be caught between the severe weather and the bulk of the wintry precip. I guess there's still time and averaging the solutions would leave the door open, but that darn Euro is a big one to have against you. Meh, I'm ready to move on. Winter for all intents and purposes is done for LAF. Lousy finish...awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, but this type of pattern, you will be on edge of much activity the next 10 days. Yep, the classic tease pattern as I said. Maybe we can fumble our way into one of these but better chances look to be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yep, the classic tease pattern as I said. Maybe we can fumble our way into one of these but better chances look to be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Pretty damn good agreement between the ECMWF and it's Ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 YYZ: 0.77 Why thank you Time for spring. Whhhaattt? Sick of winter now, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z NAM would be a big hit from OAX to the southern half of IA to ORD....where is Alek? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here we go..Round 2. A week and half ago MBY had a 15-18 inch snow pack...looks like it may come right back. lol I dont know if any storm can trump last nights! It was a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, but this type of pattern, you will be on edge of much activity the next 10 days. True, but the outcomes will be the same. Stuck in no man's land unfortunately. But it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here we go..Round 2. A week and half ago MBY had a 15-18 inch snow pack...looks like it may come right back. lol I dont know if any storm can trump last nights! It was a great storm. Maybe this one NAM looks wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Why thank you Whhhaattt? Sick of winter now, too? Sick of the disappointments. Most areas of New England are in the 60-80" range, most areas of the northern Midwest are in the 50-70" range, and here we are with about 40-45" (with Pearson/downtown Toronto sill in the 30"s). In absolute terms we're doing better than last year, but relative to our neighbours to the E/W, it's almost a redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Maybe this one NAM looks wet I will gladly take it! Although the track has me spooked. It may be wet...but will it turn out to be cold enough? Its been a while since (if ever ) I can remember back to back blockbuster snowstorms. Could be a record month for Feb in SEMI if these next few storms work out in our favor....Knock on Wood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not until April 1st. There is some unfinished business to take care of. The last two Marches in downtown Toronto had no measurable snowfall. Time to fix that this year. So far, the Euro has displayed some good consistency with this upcoming potential system. Let's see what happens once the energy comes ashore in a few days. Should be interesting! Mentally I agree with you but emotionally the disappointments are starting to dishearten me. Honestly though, it's not just sour grapes that's making me say this; I think Thursday-Friday is rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for those interested, the track of the sfc low on the 12z Euro for the monster after this one.. 168hr- two 996mb contours, one in southern OK with the other from the northern TX PH into sw KS 174hr- 992mb over northern AR 180hr- 984mb over extreme southern IL 186hr- 976mb over extreme nw OH 192hr- 968mb over lake huron. A BOMB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I will gladly take it! Although the track has me spooked. It may be wet...but will it turn out to be cold enough? Its still winter it will draw in Colder air if your on the right side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for those interested, the track of the sfc low on the 12z Euro for the monster after this one.. 168hr- two 996mb contours, one in southern OK with the other from the northern TX PH into sw KS 174hr- 992mb over northern AR 180hr- 984mb over extreme southern IL 186hr- 976mb over extreme nw OH 192hr- 968mb over lake huron. A BOMB. Thats the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 for those interested, the track of the sfc low on the 12z Euro for the monster after this one.. 168hr- two 996mb contours, one in southern OK with the other from the northern TX PH into sw KS 174hr- 992mb over northern AR 180hr- 984mb over extreme southern IL 186hr- 976mb over extreme nw OH 192hr- 968mb over lake huron. A BOMB. Who has blizzard conditions? and who is the jackpot for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 DTX AFD.. THE BIG QUESTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST, IS SHOWN TO TRACK ALL THE WAY SOUTH TOWARD BAJA BEFORE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SO A LOT CAN HAPPEN DURING THAT JOURNEY THAT WILL LEAD TO TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS. EVIDENCE SO FAR DOES SUPPORT MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT OFFER A SURFACE LOW TRACK NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IS FAVORED AS THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING WITH TIME AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA TO INFLUENCE THE SHORT WAVE TRACK ALOFT, ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE PRE-EXISTING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NOT OFFERING MUCH RESISTANCE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERING THESE THINGS, A SYSTEM TRACK NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SEEMS REASONABLE WITHOUT EVEN MENTIONING THE PROBLEMS THE GFS SOLUTION HAS WITH GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION IN ITS SURFACE PRESSURE SOLUTION. ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, AND GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST, PREFER ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO OF DATA GATHERING BEFORE RAMPING UP TO THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE ECMWF, WHICH WOULD MEAN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR SE MICHIGAN. A 2 day break then Bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Who has blizzard conditions? and who is the jackpot for snow? At 180+ hours it really doesn't matter. I'd think you'd be fringed though vertbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thats the problem That is great. Long overdue for a more classic winter storm track like that. Now hopefully with the AO/NAO getting ready to trend back up a little this next system ( 23-25 ) comes nw a little as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That is great. Long overdue for a more classic winter storm track like that. Now hopefully with the AO/NAO getting ready to trend back up a little this next system ( 23-25 ) comes nw a little as well. So who's gona start a thread/topic for this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 So who's gona start a thread/topic for this time frame? Party on Spartyon. Party on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.