wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ok, I'm somewhat sucked back in! Anyways, do you think the NAM will be the trend setter, or is the NAM overdoing the cyclogenisis and the NW trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 DTX Playing it safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 alot more precip to the w/n on the 18z rgem compared to 12z 36hr 18z & 42hr 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i had pretty much written this one off, and I would still say 10% chance of it getting all the way up here, but wow who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I've learned from the best. Regardless if this turns into a miss for here, a bitter pill to swallow. Alas, thems the breaks I guess. I'm happy for the miss.. But this justifies how much of a screwzone this area is now.. We've swallowed more than a few bitter pills this year, more like a whole bottle of bitter pills.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 i had pretty much written this one off, and I would still say 10% chance of it getting all the way up here, but wow who knows What percentage would you give it for MKE? At this point if I lived in Northern Illinois I would be getting pretty giddy, but I might be just a little too far northwest to get anything decent out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS looks pretty much the same at hr 21 compared to 12z 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oakland County area forecast: Thursday: Snow and freezing drizzle likely before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind becoming north between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night: Snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday: Snow before 1pm. High near 31. Blustery, with a north northwest wind between 13 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Spring weather at its best these next two storms--convection and winter storm all wrapped in one. The US, IMO, has the most unique and exciting weather in the world overall owing to the unique terrain and semi-permanent baroclinic zones/moisture sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looking at HR 24 now, this thing is going NW of 12z. 1004 low at hr 24 pretty close to NAM spot, while 18z was at 1008 and a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 SPring weather at its best these next two storms--convection and winter storm all wrapped in one. The US, IMO, has the most unique and exciting weather in the world overall. Particularly the Midwestern part of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm happy for the miss.. But this justifies how much of a screwzone this area is now.. We've swallowed more than a few bitter pills this year, more like a whole bottle of bitter pills.. I know you have your reasons, but what's the fun of 34 and rain? Eh, the snow would've been gone in 2 days anyway. But you should be happy now...congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oakland County area forecast: Thursday: Snow and freezing drizzle likely before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind becoming north between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night: Snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday: Snow before 1pm. High near 31. Blustery, with a north northwest wind between 13 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. I think they are over estimating the dry air. That really hasn't been a big problem so far with storms this year. Ill be honest I don't trust dtx much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Oakland County area forecast: Thursday: Snow and freezing drizzle likely before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Calm wind becoming north between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night: Snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday: Snow before 1pm. High near 31. Blustery, with a north northwest wind between 13 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Feb 5th all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Playing it safe? Now there playin it safe. Love it to much fun with this weather service on a daily basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Slow and steady with the GFS--typically how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I know you have your reasons, but what's the fun of 34 and rain? Eh, the snow would've been gone in 2 days anyway. But you should be happy now...congrats! Trust me, it pains me having to wish for rain and not snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Slow and steady with the GFS--typically how it goes. And yet it starts out pretty far out to lunch to begin with. It still doesn't help short or mid range forecasts when it's constantly shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 DID DROP SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OFF CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE DRY AIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Feb 5th all over again. 3-5" south of 59 and 2-3 inches north 59 and possibly 4" ne macomb cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Trust me, it pains me having to wish for rain and not snow.. We'll I blame you for wishing it away (funny how that doesn't work in reverse when you want it to happen) and Hoosier for making the first call of 5-8" after the 12z suite. Ah life in central Indiana, true winter hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 And yet it starts out pretty far out to lunch to begin with. It still doesn't help short or mid range forecasts when it's constantly shifting. Constantly shifting in a general trend. This is EXACTLY what you want. Euro trended away from its earlier runs and actually went weaker than stronger again. NAM shifts all over the map are not what you want. Like I said yesterday--guidance won't hit on anything 5 days out. Best you can ask for is slow and steady verifiable trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Feb 5th all over again. Hopefully forecast outlets won't be behind the curve like that if the 00z runs continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 DID DROP SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OFF CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE DRY AIR Don't know where that came from, they did not mention anything about dry air in the last discussions lol.. of sudden. I really doubt dry air will have an effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Skilling for Chicago folks: Skilling Skilling Thu night accumulation est: 1-2" toward WI line; several inches Chicago and close-in west & north suburbs; 6"+ south twd Kanakee into NW Ind from his twitter post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Constantly shifting in a general trend. This is EXACTLY what you want. Euro trended away from its earlier runs and actually went weaker than stronger again. NAM shifts all over the map are not what you want. Like I said yesterday--guidance won't hit on anything 5 days out. Best you can ask for is slow and steady verifiable trends. I guess so, but you never know for sure when it's done with its adjustments, and the GFS stayed obstinately south for quite awhile. Only late last night did it really start its small shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 LOT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND GET HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. LOW AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF DEEPER SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY CUTOFF OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN BUT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE TX PANHANDLE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS THE FORMER CUTOFF UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN OBSERVED TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THE SFC LOW FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THIS RESULTS IN SOME CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AND THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER FOCUSED THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREAD PRECIP NORTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN. THE UPPER LOW WILL WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE SFC LOW. THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A MIX OF SNOW...RAIN...AND SLEET TOWARDS PONTIAC AND RENSSELAER AT ONSET BUT PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY COOL TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BECOMES WELL FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING STRONG FORCING IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER BENEATH NEGATIVE EPV INDICATING UNSTABLE AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AREAS IN THE WATCH SEEING 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ADDS CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING BUT MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS THIS HIGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCHING AND TRY TO ADD DETAIL TO AMOUNT FORECAST. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE APPEARING MORE LIKELY JUST NORTH OF THE WATCH OR ROUGHLY UP TO AROUND INTERSTATE 88 WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATION NORTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN LOW TRACK WITH MAIN UPPER LOW NOW COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER FLOW FLATTENS INTO SATURDAY BUT A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Constantly shifting in a general trend. This is EXACTLY what you want. Euro trended away from its earlier runs and actually went weaker than stronger again. NAM shifts all over the map are not what you want. Like I said yesterday--guidance won't hit on anything 5 days out. Best you can ask for is slow and steady verifiable trends. 100% agree. Makes the model more reliably usable for forecast purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Don't know where that came from, they did not mention anything about dry air in the last discussions lol.. of sudden. I really doubt dry air will have an effect.. 1 word to sum up this AFD...strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nice little shift on the gfs there, hope 12z keeps it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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