Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Though I'm sure when it gets down to it, the southern counties will get trimmed out. Heck, the whole thing might get eliminated if the 18z NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Gonna be interesting to see if the 18z RGEM calls BS on the NAM since it's usually amped up in the later time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Heck, the whole thing might get eliminated if the 18z NAM is correct. No doubt about that.. Should be interesting to see what the 18z GFS throws on the table.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 hell of a time for the RGEM to have missed its bus. F5, F5, F5.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 No doubt about that.. Should be interesting to see what the 18z GFS throws on the table.. I'm sure it will still give us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 994 in s Indiana on the 18z RGEM at 36. That's a similar location to the 18z NAM at 36 and maybe a bit deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Baum stole it the guys arm has to be tired from throwing in a towel every event and poo-pooing every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 RGEM is north as of 36 hr compared to 06. Low is in far SW Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm sure it will still give us hope. yeah the GFS has a long ways to go, the NAM started showing signs of a north jog at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ILX going with a watch for the NE 1/4, ILX really needs to start putting county names in the watch,warning, advisory column instead of the numbers cuz I have no clue how far west that'll go or how far south.. Oh NM it just came out: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL320 PM CST WED FEB 23 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRALILLINOIS FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINSEARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS THELOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THURSDAYNIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL DEVELOPOVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THURSDAYEVENING AND BECOMING HEAVY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST INTHE EAST CENTRAL HALF OF ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM EL PASO...TO DECATUR...TO MATTOON...TO PARIS.ILZ038-043>046-053>057-240530-/O.NEW.KILX.WS.A.0002.110225T0000Z-110225T1200Z/MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON...MATTOON320 PM CST WED FEB 23 2011...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATETHURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AMOUNTS OF FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.* WIND...WINDS WILL BE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS IN MANY LOCATIONS AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO Going along and NE of IL 121 for locals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 you guys should thank me. By running this storm down and wishing it for Hoosier it's coming right at us...never fails. Still don't think its going to thunder snow in Batavia.. are you done? your almost as annoying as respiratory guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 994 in s Indiana on the 18z RGEM at 36. That's a similar location to the 18z NAM at 36 and maybe a bit deeper. got damn canadian black and whites make me want to choke someone, thanks for deciphering the madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 your almost as annoying as respiratory guy. not even close and he doesn't plagarize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think if the Nam was right the euro would have picked up on it today. This is about as far NW I see this going and m59 south are right on the fringe of seeing 6-12 vs 3-4 one county away. Nail biter Well said. Tonight will be bitter sweet for SEMI weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I see csnavy lurking, care to share your thoughts? The NAM has pulled inside of its useful range, and the trend is unmistakably north, along with the GFS. The SREF has uncharacteristically and abruptly begun to change course at the last minute, with many of its members suddenly developing a strong deformation zone, and thus expanding the precip shield to the north of the track. This is a classic case where staying ahead of the game is crucial to getting a good forecast out soon enough. It's pretty clear that the shortwave coming in off the Pacific is stronger than was originally calculated, and that... unfortunately, we were getting some pretty abysmal feedback errors in earlier runs. Earlier runs also tended to shred the wave as it entered the SW, but in the process of doing so, seemed to have lost track of the fact that the overall DPVA was actually increasing as it opened from a shear-dominated lobe into an advection lobe. With a good baroclinic zone already in place, that's a great recipie for lee-cyclogenesis, which seemed overly delayed. In fact, we're already seeing a pressure response over Texas/western High Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 RGEM and 18z NAM at hr 36 is almost identical except that the RGEM is about 4 MB stronger. NAM pulling a win? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 yeah the GFS has a long ways to go, the NAM started showing signs of a north jog at 12z. This will be a tough one to take if it doesn't pan out here...in some ways tougher than the Groundhog blizzard even though that was bigger. We had favorable trends up until 12z but it appears to be reversing now. Ah well, enough venting from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z NAM comes back around to a bit south of the 0z run it had monday night. curious as to what the 18z GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 48hr rgem is tanking this thing. Down to 983mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The NAM has pulled inside of its useful range, and the trend is unmistakably north, along with the GFS. The SREF has uncharacteristically and abruptly begun to change course at the last minute, with many of its members suddenly developing a strong deformation zone, and thus expanding the precip shield to the north of the track. This is a classic case where staying ahead of the game is crucial to getting a good forecast out soon enough. It's pretty clear that the shortwave coming in off the Pacific is stronger than was originally calculated, and that... unfortunately, we were getting some pretty abysmal feedback errors in earlier runs. Earlier runs also tended to shred the wave as it entered the SW, but in the process of doing so, seemed to have lost track of the fact that the overall DPVA was actually increasing as it opened from a shear-dominated lobe into an advection lobe. With a good baroclinic zone already in place, that's a great recipie for lee-cyclogenesis, which seemed overly delayed. In fact, we're already seeing a pressure response over Texas/western High Plains. thanks a bunch, appreciate you taking the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GRR going 3-5 inches for southern portion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 HR 48: 983 MB in C. NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Congrats Buffalo! 37mm = ~1.5" 48hr 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The NAM has pulled inside of its useful range, and the trend is unmistakably north, along with the GFS. The SREF has uncharacteristically and abruptly begun to change course at the last minute, with many of its members suddenly developing a strong deformation zone, and thus expanding the precip shield to the north of the track. This is a classic case where staying ahead of the game is crucial to getting a good forecast out soon enough. It's pretty clear that the shortwave coming in off the Pacific is stronger than was originally calculated, and that... unfortunately, we were getting some pretty abysmal feedback errors in earlier runs. Earlier runs also tended to shred the wave as it entered the SW, but in the process of doing so, seemed to have lost track of the fact that the overall DPVA was actually increasing as it opened from a shear-dominated lobe into an advection lobe. With a good baroclinic zone already in place, that's a great recipie for lee-cyclogenesis, which seemed overly delayed. In fact, we're already seeing a pressure response over Texas/western High Plains. Nice analysis. It did seem we were at the point where the upper wave--which was being sheared apart partially by earlier runs as it interacted with the fast westerlies along the north end--would be weakened through mid tropospheric warming owing to convection. I personally don't believe the GFS was "convective feedback" but actually a realistic depiction based on its weak and sheared/elongated S/W--NAM seemed to have some convective feedback though. It does seem the upper wave is much stronger than progged and the convectiion is now not weakening the wave but actually enhancing pressure falls and that is now combined with the enhanced DPVA as the S/W ejects eastward--hence the rapid and sudden shift in intensity and track by the weaker models. "Uncle" UKie as Canuck says it had this solution quite a ways ago. UK has a clue every now and then--even I didn't think it would be as intense as the UK had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 inside your pessimistic range i see I've learned from the best. Regardless if this turns into a miss for here, a bitter pill to swallow. Alas, thems the breaks I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Placement of the energy in the upper wave is crucial to where the mid level closed low forms--and that is shown here as the NAM is weaker but has a farther displaced and more developed CCB than the stronger RGEM--who apparently has the mid level low farther S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Nice analysis. It did seem we were at the point where the upper wave--which was being sheared apart partially by earlier runs as it interacted with the fast westerlies along the north end--would be weakened through mid tropospheric warming owing to convection. I personally don't believe the GFS was "convective feedback" but actually a realistic depiction based on its weak and sheared/elongated S/W--NAM seemed to have some convective feedback though. It does seem the upper wave is much stronger than progged and the convectiion is now not weakening the wave but actually enhancing pressure falls and that is now combined with the enhanced DPVA as the S/W ejects eastward--hence the rapid and sudden shift in intensity and track by the weaker models. "Uncle" UKie as Canuck says it had this solution quite a ways ago. UK has a clue every now and then--even I didn't think it would be as intense as the UK had it. Just for the record, I got that from your boys in the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 omg. 18z NAM is 0.96" at DTW, all snow...1.23" at TOL all snow but the first few hundredths which are freezing rain. IF and a big IF that verifies...we will be surpassing the 16" snow depth seen February 6th, and its all from scratch after the torch. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 DTX REMAINING DISCUSSION ON THIS SYSTEM IS BASED ON LATEST CONSENSUS.SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING BRINGS ONSET OF SYSTEM SNOWFALL FOR LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY WHILE CONTINUING NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FEED OF AIR BETWEEN 800-700MB SHOULD KEEP A SHARP GRADIENT TO ACCUMULATIONS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION. MOST IMPACT/HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6-12Z FRIDAY AS VERY STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS INTENSIFY. LATEST THINKING IS FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY OF 4-6 INCHES FOR LENAWEE/MONROE/WAYNE COUNTIES...WITH 2-4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON TIER DOWN INTO WASHTENAW COUNTIES. DID DROP SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OFF CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE DRY AIR. WILL SAY OUTRIGHT THIS IS SUBJECT TO REVISION GIVEN THE NORTHERLY TREND. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THIS EVENT...VALUES LIKELY REACHING 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z NAM BUFKIT profile for YYZ showing tremendous omega on the order of -20 ubar/sec. Elevated instability too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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