Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. shhhhhhushhhhhhshshshshshhhhhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 About .05" to .15" of whatever QPF we got is muddled with the initial cold front's precipitation, so consider that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's over for LAF. But hey congrats to the WI and MI people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I bet DTX Issues watches for Lenawae, Monroe and Wayne Its DTX they will wait. But those counties for sure. If the trending verifies or scoots even more..Watches into the 3rd & Forth tier of SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I-80 in Indiana gets nailed on this run...12+ Was just noticing that and went OUCH! I for one am ready for spring and svr weather. At least now we are into the time frame where I can read threads about svr and heavy snow from the same system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 BUF/CLE with WSWs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Its DTX they will wait. But those counties for sure. If the trending verifies or scoots even more..Watches into the 3rd & Forth tier of SEMI. After being so gung ho about it snowing, and then models all starting to trend in their favor, i could see them going watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Baum stole it you guys should thank me. By running this storm down and wishing it for Hoosier it's coming right at us...never fails. Still don't think its going to thunder snow in Batavia.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible. That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled. If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy. Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 ILN added a few counties in their far Northern CWA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 After being so gung ho about it snowing, and then models all starting to trend in their favor, i could see them going watch. Agree.. But will they wait until the 0z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible. That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled. If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy. Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 After being so gung ho about it snowing, and then models all starting to trend in their favor, i could see them going watch. AGREE^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible. That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled. If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy. Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This run looks similar to what the NAM was showing or was close to showing when the storm first came inside 84hrs and before it trended well south to join the GFS. I'd be a lot more confident in it's solution if it had some agreement, but since there were no major SE shifts and some minor N shifts with the 12z action, i'm not throwing it out either. Bloomington, IL to Ft Wayne, IN still looks prime for this region with shifts north or south more than possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 IWX issues watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible. That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled. If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy. Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit. you lost me here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's over for LAF. But hey congrats to the WI and MI people. inside your pessimistic range i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 IND issues watch for the northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This run looks similar to what the NAM was showing or was close to showing when the storm first came inside 84hrs and before it trended well south to join the GFS. I'd be a lot more confident in it's solution if it had some agreement, but since there were no major SE shifts and some minor N shifts with the 12z action, i'm not throwing it out either. Bloomington, IL to Ft Wayne, IN still looks prime for this region with shifts north or south more than possible. still should put LOT in a quandary as were almost within 24 hours....I guess pops from 50% north to likely far south...with a CYA discussion attached bingo: 250 PM CST WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 00Z FRIDAY UNTIL 15Z FRIDAY FROM PORTER AND LAKE COUNTIES IN INDIANA WESTWARD ACROSS KANKAKEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN IL AND ALL POINTS SOUTH. DETAILED DISCUSSION AND HEADLINE PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 you lost me here you mean his triple post didn't lose you first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 still should put LOT in a quandary as were almost within 24 hours....I guess pops from 50% north to likely far south...with a CYA discussion attached bingo: 250 PM CST WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 00Z FRIDAY UNTIL 15Z FRIDAY FROM PORTER AND LAKE COUNTIES IN INDIANA WESTWARD ACROSS KANKAKEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN IL AND ALL POINTS SOUTH. DETAILED DISCUSSION AND HEADLINE PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY... I think that's a fair call, all we have showing more than 2-3 inches is an 18z NAM run that was way different than it's previous, hard to be bullish on that alone. Either way, confidence in some accumulating snow way up over this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 you lost me here I love me some Judge Judy. When ignorant people get embarrassed on national television, I smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I see csnavy lurking, care to share your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 IWX: 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA WITH AMOUNTS CLOSE TO A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I love me some Judge Judy. When ignorant people get embarrassed on national television, I smile. isnt it all an act? anyways, its OT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Environment Canada with a SPS, indicating the potential for heavy snow along the north shores of Lk Erie/Ontario, but with much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think if the Nam was right the euro would have picked up on it today. This is about as far NW I see this going and m59 south are right on the fringe of seeing 6-12 vs 3-4 one county away. Nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 IND issues watch for the northern counties. Though I'm sure when it gets down to it, the southern counties will get trimmed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The NAM could very well be right, or it could be just a bad run. But I remember a strom last month I think it was, where the models were all like 100-200 miles farther SE then what the storm ended up. A father NW trend is unlikley, but it's possible if one of two things happen: A) The storm develops farther west or north. or If the low is stronger in OK then what is progged. A stronger storm to start will obviously pull it farther NW then what it would have shown if it was weak to start. I can see the NAM being right if A or B happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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