Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Feb. 23-25th Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 999
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Its DTX they will wait. But those counties for sure. If the trending verifies or scoots even more..Watches into the 3rd & Forth tier of SEMI.

After being so gung ho about it snowing, and then models all starting to trend in their favor, i could see them going watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. :yikes:

While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible.

That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled.

If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy.

Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. :yikes:

While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible.

That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled.

If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy.

Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I gotta admit. Thought entered my head. :yikes:

While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible.

That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled.

If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy.

Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This run looks similar to what the NAM was showing or was close to showing when the storm first came inside 84hrs and before it trended well south to join the GFS. I'd be a lot more confident in it's solution if it had some agreement, but since there were no major SE shifts and some minor N shifts with the 12z action, i'm not throwing it out either. Bloomington, IL to Ft Wayne, IN still looks prime for this region with shifts north or south more than possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While less likely, it's certainly plausible. Just as the supressed solution they were showing yesterday is plausible.

That part of the reason why I refuse to let myself get excited, and this is all besides the fact that the storm has yet to be fully sampled.

If it shows something good (save a northward adjustment) on tomorrow's 12z runs then I may be a bit giddy.

Anyway I have to go this store and get back before Judge Judy comes on. I'll be back in a little bit.

you lost me here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This run looks similar to what the NAM was showing or was close to showing when the storm first came inside 84hrs and before it trended well south to join the GFS. I'd be a lot more confident in it's solution if it had some agreement, but since there were no major SE shifts and some minor N shifts with the 12z action, i'm not throwing it out either. Bloomington, IL to Ft Wayne, IN still looks prime for this region with shifts north or south more than possible.

still should put LOT in a quandary as were almost within 24 hours....I guess pops from 50% north to likely far south...with a CYA discussion attached

bingo:

250 PM CST

WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 00Z FRIDAY UNTIL 15Z

FRIDAY FROM PORTER AND LAKE COUNTIES IN INDIANA WESTWARD ACROSS

KANKAKEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN IL AND ALL POINTS SOUTH. DETAILED

DISCUSSION AND HEADLINE PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

still should put LOT in a quandary as were almost within 24 hours....I guess pops from 50% north to likely far south...with a CYA discussion attached

bingo:

250 PM CST

WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 00Z FRIDAY UNTIL 15Z

FRIDAY FROM PORTER AND LAKE COUNTIES IN INDIANA WESTWARD ACROSS

KANKAKEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN IL AND ALL POINTS SOUTH. DETAILED

DISCUSSION AND HEADLINE PRODUCT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

I think that's a fair call, all we have showing more than 2-3 inches is an 18z NAM run that was way different than it's previous, hard to be bullish on that alone. Either way, confidence in some accumulating snow way up over this time yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM could very well be right, or it could be just a bad run. But I remember a strom last month I think it was, where the models were all like 100-200 miles farther SE then what the storm ended up. A father NW trend is unlikley, but it's possible if one of two things happen:

A) The storm develops farther west or north.

or

B) If the low is stronger in OK then what is progged.

A stronger storm to start will obviously pull it farther NW then what it would have shown if it was weak to start.

I can see the NAM being right if A or B happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...