Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Can't believe this event is almost within 100 hours already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's been back and forth, north and south, with the past couple of runs. Of course it's pretty warm compared to the other guidance at the moment. 18z GFS ensembles don't look very good considering the bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z GFS ensembles don't look very good considering the bias. Or in other words...next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 If the league ever starts we need more people Sorry for the OT, but are you guys looking for someone to join a FB league? If so, PM me. I would be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm thinking at this point this one will track farther north and west than the last several operational GFS runs. Why? The 500 mb shortwave trough takes on a slight negative tilt. Global models, especially the GFS, struggle with the low level forcing and latent heat/convective elements as a more dynamical neg tilt scenario unfolds... and normally have the sfc/850 mb displaced too far to the south and east. And more obvious reasons would be the Euro's solution and for the fact that the GEFS is farther northwest (as Hoosier mentioned above). So...I'm thinking a rain event for LAF/me/DET/OH crew. Wintry stuff from Chicago and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z NAM is a good deal north and warmer of where the 18z GFS is at the same time and a tad stronger. 850mb low a good amount stronger as well. NAM has a 1004mb low along the nw OK/KS border while the GFS has a 1007mb low around AMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm thinking at this point this one will track farther north and west than the last several operational GFS runs. Why? The 500 mb shortwave trough takes on a slight negative tilt. Global models, especially the GFS, struggle with the low level forcing and latent heat/convective elements as a more dynamical neg tilt scenario unfolds... and normally have the sfc/850 mb displaced too far to the south and east. And more obvious reasons would be the Euro's solution and for the fact that the GEFS is farther northwest (as Hoosier mentioned above). So...I'm thinking a rain event for LAF/me/DET/OH crew. Wintry stuff from Chicago and northwest. I suspected as such but was hopeful some good fortune might shine on me/us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GFS takes the low to OH/NY area. LOW is much weaker to start out with then what the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 can't help but think the NAM is onto something with the stronger and further north track right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 NAM/EURO (12z) have the same low strength and close to the same pos. GFS is weaker and a bit east. What does the GEM/UKIE show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not al that impressive as it's out in the pacific by baja california. Is there phasing with this one or is it just feeding off the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GEM has a 996 low in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 GEM has a 996 low in Ohio. Really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 lol, we don't have to worry about sleet with this one. Nor snow for that matter...but I know what you mean. If I never saw sleet again, I'd be happy. Alas, we all know this one is ticketed for places farther north. Rinse, wash, repeat. What a miserable finish to winter for us... 0z GFS shows a significant snowfall for north-central Indiana, looks plenty cold with the low tracking over Ohio. I suspect the banding will become much more widespread on models as we approach the event, as this is a very powerful storm with a huge temperature gradient over the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z GFS Ens Mean is farther NW than the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ummm.....so is this the the appetizer before this guy....holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ummm.....so is this the the appetizer before this guy....holy smokes. I think I'll wait a bit until I start fawning over a system on the GFS more than a week away, but, given the moisture and pressure, could be a repeat of the Groundhog Day Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ummm.....so is this the the appetizer before this guy....holy smokes. I'm pretty sure that's the truncation QPF error they were suppose to fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Ummm.....so is this the the appetizer before this guy....holy smokes. Super warm at 850mb, though. Still a beast. Would be one heck of a severe outbreak. Looks more 'Springy' than 'Wintery'....yes, those are words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO again has a stronger low then the GFS at HR 72. Looks like 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm pretty sure that's the truncation QPF error they were suppose to fix. I figured it had to be a problem lol still...988mb is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO has a 996 low at hr 96 in C. MO gonna be west of 12z probably. Stronger and a tad west compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 EURO has a 992 low near bloomington ill at hr 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 HR 108: 992 low near Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 IA gets .5-.75 at least, they are the big winner. Probably a 4-6 inch event for extreme SE WI and N. ILL, most of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ORD gets 1.14" liquid, mostly snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I guess I was wrong on the snow totals. ORD gets 9-12 ish (close to the rain/snow line), MKE gets .5 QPF and up here is about .3 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, I thought HR 96 is rain, it's REALLY close, and then you get a sure 4-6 on the backside. Nice hit for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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