OHSnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not looking too good for northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan, and I just can't understand why. Looks like a perfect track, but for some reason, precip. starts as rain then just shuts off as colder air arrives. I have no idea how it's going to rain in February with a low tracking hundreds of miles to the south. And I don't see how a low could track along the Ohio River and not produce any substantial precip. north of Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z NAM QPF *all snow locations... DET (Detroit City Airport) - 0.40", along with an additional 0.06" from tonight/Thursday's cold front DTW (Detroit Metro Airport) - 0.44", with an additional 0.03" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front. ORD (Chicago O'Hare Airport) - 0.32", with an additional 0.08" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front MDW (Chicago Midway Airport) - 0.38", with an additional 0.05" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front. TOL - 0.42", with an additional 0.04" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front LAF - 1.07", with an additional 0.14" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front FWA - 0.79" (it does get up to 0.1*F at one level early on), with an additional 0.16" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front DVN - 0.19", with an additional 0.04" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front SPI - 1.09", with an additional 0.06" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front Well, those are obviously wrong. There's no way DTW, which is some 50 miles north of TOL, gets more precip. than TOL with a low following that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z NAM is 6-10" for LAF. Man, just give me one more snowstorm this winter and I'm good to go. Where is the NW trend when I need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks good for LAF. Having a hard time buying the NAM up here and either way it's a low end advisory event at best given the progressive nature and fringe location. Good luck to those looking for one last hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, those are obviously wrong. There's no way DTW, which is some 50 miles north of TOL, gets more precip. than TOL with a low following that track. That is the raw data output from the NAM, so they're 100% correct and I didn't make these numbers up. Apparently a band of slightly heavier snow sets up north of Toledo (narrow blue line through Southern Michigan in below image). and it apparently in a weakened state expands to DTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not looking too good for northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan, and I just can't understand why. Looks like a perfect track, but for some reason, precip. starts as rain then just shuts off as colder air arrives. I have no idea how it's going to rain in February with a low tracking hundreds of miles to the south. And I don't see how a low could track along the Ohio River and not produce any substantial precip. north of Findlay. may want to brush up on your map reading skills...i think you'll see some snow near toledo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NWS PBZ just hoisted a flood watch for most of it's CWA, calling for 1-1.5 inches of rainfall. Wonder if NWS CLE will follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Curious where this thing would have tracked if it wasnt for that northern energy. While it's supplying the colder air for this storm once it passes through the great lakes, it's also bringing the warm air north ahead of the main show. Just thinking what ifs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS looks like it'll stay put. No big shifts this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Curious where this thing would have tracked if it wasnt for that northern energy. While it's supplying the colder air for this storm once it passes through the great lakes, it's also bringing the warm air north ahead of the main show. Just thinking what ifs. Probably would have been another MSP special with the -PNA. To some extent the setup is similar to the last storm. These shortwaves parking over Southern Ontario near Hudson Bay has been saving our butts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, those are obviously wrong. There's no way DTW, which is some 50 miles north of TOL, gets more precip. than TOL with a low following that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GFS looks like it'll stay put. No big shifts this run. While no *big* shifts, it is stronger and a little bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Probably would have been another MSP special with the -PNA. To some extent the setup is similar to the last storm. These shortwaves parking over Southern Ontario near Hudson Bay has been saving our butts. I don't think it would go that west, but yea theres a pretty good chance it would have been rain here. The NAO is slowly rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 While no *big* shifts, it is stronger and a little bit NW. Compare 6z at 48 with 12z at 42. Low is the exact same strength and maybe actually a touch further east at 12z. The big difference is that like the NAM the upper levels look a bit better which allows the deformation zone snows to spread further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Compare 6z at 48 with 12z at 42. Low is the exact same strength and maybe actually a touch further east at 12z. The big difference is that like the NAM the upper levels look a bit better which allows the deformation zone snows to spread further north. I like to compare the 0z with the 12z runs and the 06z runs with the 18z runs. It's just my personal preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The GFS looks to be suffering from convective feedback. There should be a deformation zone extending across N OH / Lake Erie into NW Ohio/ SE Michigan and NE Indiana. But it never develops because it keeps creating spurious blobs of convection right along the low track, which are robbing all of the moisture from moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I like to compare the 0z with the 12z runs and the 06z runs with the 18z runs. It's just my personal preference. ok. Then you may be right. In any case, GFS is suffering from more gridscale cf problems this run so I'd likely throw it out and go with the NAM/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Still not buying the GFS track. When's the last time you saw a low go through or up the apps. Not saying it's not possible but unlikely. Must be tough to me a met because while you use your instincts and look at the overall setup, you need some help from the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z GFS is slower, stronger, and obviously further northwest a good amount from the 0z run. A good event for SPI with decent snow getting up to around I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z GFS is slower, stronger, and obviously further northwest a good amount from the 0z run. A good event for SPI with decent snow getting up to around I-80. Could someone explain to me the logic of not comparing the most recent run of a model with its second most recent run? This isn't sarcasm. Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z GFS is slower, stronger, and obviously further northwest a good amount from the 0z run. A good event for SPI with decent snow getting up to around I-80. Looks like a Central Illinois,Northern Indiana,Special...congrats to those guys. Here's hoping it locks in for them...54 inches in Chi town is enough for one year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like the Ukie finally is starting to back off a bit. Definitely still on the far north of the model tracks but by 12z Friday low looks to be centered over E-central Ohio rather than far northeast Ohio like on the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Could someone explain to me the logic of not comparing the most recent run of a model with its second most recent run? This isn't sarcasm. Serious question. yeah, i always compare 3 or so in sequence, i'd be interested in the answer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 And yeah the 12z models were a nice trend up this way, still fringed but at least somewhat in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Still not buying the GFS track. When's the last time you saw a low go through or up the apps. Not saying it's not possible but unlikely. Must be tough to me a met because while you use your instincts and look at the overall setup, you need some help from the models The low isn't going up the apps. Its moving SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Could someone explain to me the logic of not comparing the most recent run of a model with its second most recent run? This isn't sarcasm. Serious question. I think Baro explain months ago why this rumor of the off runs not being as good is untrue. I actually just looked at the 12z run really fast and compared it to the 0z run. Usually I would compare it to the 6z as well, better that way to look at trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think Baro explain months ago why this rumor of the off runs not being as good is untrue. I actually just looked at the 12z run really fast and compared it to the 0z run. Usually I would compare it to the 6z as well, better that way to look at trends. Yeah, I think that's the only way you could justify it. If you believed the intermediate runs (6/18z) were somehow substandard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 GGEM came a good deal NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 GGEM came a good deal NW. closer to the NAM or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 closer to the NAM or GFS? a bit stronger and a hair north than the NAM at 36 and 48hr. 1000mb on the MO/AR border to 988mb in eastern OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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