snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z RGEM looks a little more amped, although through 6z Fri there's not a ton of snow in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6z UKMET is content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 00Z Euro LAF: 0.94 (2m: 1.2 850T: -1.4 (for 0.70)) So close... Thanks for the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 So close... Thanks for the details. FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.0 0.5 1001 96 76 0.81 547 546 I am so hoping I can catch 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FRI 06Z 25-FEB 1.0 0.5 1001 96 76 0.81 547 546 I am so hoping I can catch 3 or 4 inches. That would be nice. Let's hope for the best. Did you see the 6z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 IWX and DTX still aren't buying these bullish SE/weaker positions the models are showing as of now. IWX is calling for 4-7" in Hillsdale and in my zone forecast DTX is calling for 4-7" total. Like I said, we have 3 more sets of model runs to go before we can get a good idea on what this storm will do, so living and dying by each model run's shift is not going to work this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 That would be nice. Let's hope for the best. Did you see the 6z NAM? Yes. Even the 6z GFS is ok with me. (Isn't it time the NAM wins one?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 IWX and DTX still aren't buying these bullish SE/weaker positions the models are showing as of now. IWX is calling for 4-7" in Hillsdale and in my zone forecast DTX is calling for 4-7" total. Like I said, we have 3 more sets of model runs to go before we can get a good idea on what this storm will do, so living and dying by each model run's shift is not going to work this time. I saw... well 6z did shift north I think.. Nam and Gfs. Honestly, I think the storm has to be sampled first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I saw... well 6z did shift north I think.. Nam and Gfs. Honestly, I think the storm has to be sampled first. Blend this 4 Models UKIE,EURO,NAM and GFS you got about 2-3" of snow north of Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Blend this 4 Models UKIE,EURO,NAM and GFS you got about 2-3" of snow north of Detroit South.??. I think this evening we should know for sure if this baby will nudge further n/w for fudge further s/e. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hey if Im wrong Im wrong, but Im actually feeling pretty good about this storm. Detroit has been on a roll since mid-January, it just wants to snow here every chance it gets (kind of how it DIDNT want to snow Dec 13-Jan 10). Plus being JUST north of the NAM/GFS snow shield and inside the UK/EURO snow shield is not bad considering there is not a large area of snow with this storm, just the northern edge. DTX still confident as well going 4+ inches: THE 00Z MODELS FROM A 500 MB HEIGHT PERSPECTIVE REALLY DO NOT VARY MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THAT ALL CHANGES AS ONE HEADS TO THE SURFACE AND AMONGST THE OTHER VARIOUS PARAMETERS. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) REALLY BEGIN TO MERGE AT 42 HR/18Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UKMET PLACING RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE 155+ KNOT OVERHEAD. IT IS REALLY GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LIKELY PREVENT SNOW FROM EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. STILL FAVORING THE STRONGER UKMET/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH TEND TO BENEFIT FROM BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. ALSO...DOES NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF SENSE TO HAVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WITH SURFACE LOW RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE MAX QPF/CONVECTION. PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES OF SNOW FOR PART OF THE CWA...BUT WILL FINE TUNE/TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST...AS 00Z UKMET SHOWS THE TIGHT 850 MB MIXING RATIO (2-4 G/KG) GRADIENT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO VERY ENCOURAGED TO SEE THE 00Z NAMB SHOWING A DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW (COMPARED TO THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL NAM). BASED ON THE RAW FIELDS OF THE NAMB...WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-59. BUT AGAIN...PREFERENCE REMAINS WITH JUST A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST SOLUTION...AND 4+ INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF M-59 REMAINS ON TARGET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Through 36, NAM's coming in stronger and a bit NW, although I'm thinking it might be suffering from that phase shift problem b_i talks about. Not really sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 From what I can see so far, the NAM is north of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hey if Im wrong Im wrong, but Im actually feeling pretty good about this storm. Detroit has been on a roll since mid-January, it just wants to snow here every chance it gets (kind of how it DIDNT want to snow Dec 13-Jan 10). Plus being JUST north of the NAM/GFS snow shield and inside the UK/EURO snow shield is not bad considering there is not a large area of snow with this storm, just the northern edge. DTX still confident as well going 4+ inches: Your in a good spot for atleast 3-5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM much stronger more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM much stronger more NW Sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM much stronger more NW By 42, the sfc low position/strength is almost exactly the same as it was at 6z. The big difference is the ul. Much nicer looking 850/700 waves, which accounts for the pcpn shield being extended much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 BTW, the models will get a better sampling than they had last night on this set of runs, but they won't get the full sampling until 12z Thursday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 big difference for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I guess it will go back to that original solution 2 days ago... always happens... trend of this winter.. DTX might be right for a change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z NAM looks pretty much the same as the 12z Euro from yesterday...maybe a small tick weaker, but the slp location at 12z Friday in SE OH is almost spot on. For LAF, the 12z NAM is probably the absolute best case scenario. Only down hill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I guess it will go back to that original solution 2 days ago... always happens... trend of this winter.. DTX might be right for a change lol We knew it would brush the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 We knew it would brush the area... True, is this the beginning of the n/w trend? A 50 mile low placement to the nw would make a huge difference in how much snow we get.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I like where I sit right now. Fringed 48 hours out. There's still room for some further NW adjustments but thanks to the northern stream confluence zone, it looks like a massive NW shift like I was thinking a few days ago isn't likely. However with Toronto's propensity to get screwed I probably shouldn't be this confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_054l.gif not bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z NAM is 6-10" for LAF. Man, just give me one more snowstorm this winter and I'm good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hey if Im wrong Im wrong, but Im actually feeling pretty good about this storm. Detroit has been on a roll since mid-January, it just wants to snow here every chance it gets (kind of how it DIDNT want to snow Dec 13-Jan 10). Plus being JUST north of the NAM/GFS snow shield and inside the UK/EURO snow shield is not bad considering there is not a large area of snow with this storm, just the northern edge. DTX still confident as well going 4+ inches: THE 00Z MODELS FROM A 500 MB HEIGHT PERSPECTIVE REALLY DO NOT VARY MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THAT ALL CHANGES AS ONE HEADS TO THE SURFACE AND AMONGST THE OTHER VARIOUS PARAMETERS. DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL JET (250 MB) REALLY BEGIN TO MERGE AT 42 HR/18Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UKMET PLACING RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE 155+ KNOT OVERHEAD. IT IS REALLY GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LIKELY PREVENT SNOW FROM EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. STILL FAVORING THE STRONGER UKMET/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH TEND TO BENEFIT FROM BETTER INITIALIZATIONS. ALSO...DOES NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF SENSE TO HAVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WITH SURFACE LOW RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE MAX QPF/CONVECTION. PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES OF SNOW FOR PART OF THE CWA...BUT WILL FINE TUNE/TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH HIGH LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST...AS 00Z UKMET SHOWS THE TIGHT 850 MB MIXING RATIO (2-4 G/KG) GRADIENT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO VERY ENCOURAGED TO SEE THE 00Z NAMB SHOWING A DEEPER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW (COMPARED TO THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL NAM). BASED ON THE RAW FIELDS OF THE NAMB...WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-59. BUT AGAIN...PREFERENCE REMAINS WITH JUST A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST SOLUTION...AND 4+ INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF M-59 REMAINS ON TARGET. I'm gonna ride with DTX and IWX. This is a quote form their AFD: ...FEEL VERY CONFIDENT WITH A SFC LOW TRACK NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. Ideal for N indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 If DTW gets 3.0" or more, it will become just Detroits 4th calendar month in recorded history with 30+ inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 12z NAM QPF *all snow locations... DET (Detroit City Airport) - 0.40", along with an additional 0.06" from tonight/Thursday's cold front DTW (Detroit Metro Airport) - 0.44", with an additional 0.03" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front. ORD (Chicago O'Hare Airport) - 0.32", with an additional 0.08" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front MDW (Chicago Midway Airport) - 0.38", with an additional 0.05" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front. TOL - 0.42", with an additional 0.04" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front LAF - 1.07", with an additional 0.14" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front FWA - 0.79" (it does get up to 0.1*F at one level early on), with an additional 0.16" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front DVN - 0.19", with an additional 0.04" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front SPI - 1.09", with an additional 0.06" from tonight's/Thursday's cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 About 6 mb deeper and 50 miles north of the 0z GGEM at 60, but some of that owes itself to RGEM biases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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