baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Agreed....as pointed out in the DTX AFD these systems tend to trend NW in time....yes remote sensing data is god for NWP and it helps, it will be interesting to see if any changes occur in track once the upper system gets sampled.....I KNOW....I KNOW........ Every setup is different--I don't know why they would say they tend to trend NW with time as every upper wave and overall setup vary significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Agreed....as pointed out in the DTX AFD these systems tend to trend NW in time....yes remote sensing data is god for NWP and it helps, it will be interesting to see if any changes occur in track once the upper system gets sampled.....I KNOW....I KNOW........ I am assuming this is the disco being referenced. I see where they are coming from--the way you said it made it sound like they were simply saying they always trend NW. It would be interesting to see the type of defo band the UK develops with the overall tilt of the upper wave--the 12Z manages to develop a rather large defo band. HE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST NORTHERN STREAM JET CORE /150KTS/OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD UPPER JETCOUPLING OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTENUNDERESTIMATE THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES LIFTINGOUT OF THE SW US. THESE FACTORS SEEM TO SUPPORT THE STRONGER UKMETSOLUTION AND IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH TAKESINTO ACCOUNT A STRONGER AND MORE WESTWARD SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULDPLACE THE DEFORMATION FORCING RIGHT OVER SE MI. SO THERE REMAINS THEPOTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The second system however looks much nicer with each GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 UKMET not giving an inch. WOW! not expecting that what in the sam hell???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 UKMET not giving an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 After the awesome busts of Feb 5th and Feb 20th, no one in Detroit should be able to complain the rest of the winter lol. That said, absolutely ZERO reason to move on from this storm yet, we are definitely still in the game. +1 we did all right this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The second system however looks much nicer with each GFS run. For Nebraska... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 WOW! not expecting that what in the sam hell???? Key is the EURO. Otherwise this is just crazy uncle Ukie up to his old tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 +1 we did all right this season No doubt. And if it wasnt for the ridiculous suppressing block and cold from dec 12 to jan 12th, we might have broken some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 No doubt. And if it wasnt for the ridiculous suppressing block and cold from dec 12 to jan 12th, we might have broken some records. Would have been similar to the 07/08 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hey, we get scrapped b the GGEM for a change...same position essentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 So how has the ukmet been doing scores wise vs the other models? I remember seeing a graphic that has the euro with the best precip score 48 hours from the event. Is their rankings from 3-5 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Hey, we get scrapped b the GGEM for a change...same position essentially Yeah, I actually get a bit of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 0z GEFS 24 hour accum. precip ending 0z/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This storm's looking a lot less impressive today compared to yesterday. Really not that much precip in the cold sector. Some of the models blow it up pretty good out east though. Looks like a miss for northern Illinois now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro remains stronger and a little N of the NCEP guidance at 48. Not a huge surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I could be wrong but it does look a tick less amped than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Euro remains stronger and a little N of the NCEP guidance at 48. Not a huge surprise. Tracks from far SE. Missouri to Cincinnati to far W. PA. It is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Congrats FWA- DFI- FDY on the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 See you guys tomorrow evening! I guess this one is over for the Western Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 QPF: PIA: 0.30" ORD: 0.14" LAF: 1.06" IND: 1.67" GRR: 0.10" DTW: 0.43" TOL: 0.75" YYZ: 0.27" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 UKMET is on its own and unlikely to verify...congrats FWA TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 00Z Euro DET: 0.41 PTK: 0.27 DTW: 0.43 TOL: 0.75 BTL: 0.26 LAF: 0.94 (2m: 1.2 850T: -1.4 (for 0.70)) ORD: 0.14 YYZ: 0.27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Detroit south is still in the game for up to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 00Z Euro DET: 0.41 PTK: 0.27 DTW: 0.43 TOL: 0.75 BTL: 0.26 LAF: 0.94 (2m: 1.2 850T: -1.4 (for 0.70)) ORD: 0.14 YYZ: 0.27 It's consistent, but trending weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Tomorrow nights runs will tell the story as it should be close enough to be sampled. Ukie could still score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 UKMET is on its own and unlikely to verify...congrats FTW TOL You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Tomorrow nights runs will tell the story as it should be close enough to be sampled. Ukie could still score. Its not getting any support though. I would agree if the King followed somewhat of a trend more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 You never know. DTX is got to you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just pushed out 05Z SmartModel, not showing too much for snowfall right now, hight points is Kansas City with 2.2" possible in the next 48 hours. Everywhere else seeing between 1-2". Will provide another run around 10Z to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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