SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Whens the next system Saturday...? I need to save the DTX AFDs if this all pans out according to today's trending. Its not a bust for them at all but its rare to see them so bullish to only go bearish in 12 hours. Last time was November 2009 I think..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Maybe it is me but i question the run from 42hrs on. Note the surface features vs everything else. http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp1_042.shtml http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_042.shtml I just don't see how it ends up staying that far south with the set up that model shows. Especially with the high just off the eastcoast. That is me though.. Exactly, that's why I was sure it would come further north. In any event, these storms coming out of the baja California/Mexico region has never produced anything less than model mayhem for us. I certainly won't throw in the towel until Thursday. At least then the solution they show will be reasonable since all the data will be available. So everyone on this board (except the Minnesota members) is still in the game. This one has the potential to produce pleasant surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 good, the less words you type the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Maybe it is me but i question the run from 42hrs on. Note the surface features vs everything else. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp1_042.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_042.shtml I just don't see how it ends up staying that far south with the set up that model shows. Especially with the high just off the eastcoast. That is me though.. In short i don't recall many systems tracking across the S.OV to off the mid Atlantic coast with that set up especially with the high to the east like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 In short i don't recall many systems tracking across the S.OV to off the mid Atlantic coast with that set up especially with the high to the east like that. So the missing trigger ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What's the NAM's basic track, is it Southern Missouri to Northern Kentucky to WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well...i have no room to complain about missing one of the 3 storms in this parade. Sunday's Thundersnow is still very fresh in my memory. I don't throw towels..I just move on After the awesome busts of Feb 5th and Feb 20th, no one in Detroit should be able to complain the rest of the winter lol. That said, absolutely ZERO reason to move on from this storm yet, we are definitely still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Exactly, that's why I was sure it would come further north. In any event, these storms coming out of the baja California/Mexico region has never produced anything less than model mayhem for us. I certainly won't throw in the towel until Thursday. At least then the solution they show will be reasonable since all the data will be available. So everyone on this board (except the Minnesota members) is still in the game. This one has the potential to produce pleasant surprises. I wont go that far yet as to who is in and who is out. I'll feel alot better once this thing is onshore though. It could go so far south that it misses everything to the north and thus forced to take the low route across the south. Have seen a couple do that this winter but they had a better supply of cold for the south as well and thus this would not be a big snow producer like those were. That high off the eastcoast though says this thing cuts to some degree no matter where it comes into Texas etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 After the awesome busts of Feb 5th and Feb 20th, no one in Detroit should be able to complain the rest of the winter lol. That said, absolutely ZERO reason to move on from this storm yet, we are definitely still in the game. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Maybe it is me but i question the run from 42hrs on. Note the surface features vs everything else. http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp1_042.shtml http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_042.shtml I just don't see how it ends up staying that far south with the set up that model shows. Especially with the high just off the eastcoast. That is me though.. Just evaluating the NAM it seems to be the orientation of the wave wrt the low level thermal fields. The flat heights ahead of the wave owing to the elongated frontal zone and WAA oriented SSW-NNE in combo with convection firing along the developing cold front/surface low results in thunderstorms that essentially propagate along the elongated nearly E-W frontal zone as the upper level wind fields "steer" convection nearly due E. The positive tilt/east moving convection combo result in strong surface pressure falls along the front and a resultant E-NE tracking low. It isn't unrealistic although whenever evaluating the NAM one needs to determine if it is developing spurious unrealistic convective blobs. That is always a possibility with the non-hydro NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 RGEM's a wide miss to the SE, and when that model's a wide miss to the SE, you know you're in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 What's the NAM's basic track, is it Southern Missouri to Northern Kentucky to WV? The 0z NAM takes it from: NC Arkansas to extreme W. edge of Kentucky then slices thru Kentucky to NE West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Just evaluating the NAM it seems to be the orientation of the wave wrt the low level thermal fields. The flat heights ahead of the wave owing to the elongated frontal zone and WAA oriented SSW-NNE in combo with convection firing along the developing cold front/surface low results in thunderstorms that essentially propagate along the elongated nearly E-W frontal zone as the upper level wind fields "steer" convection nearly due E. The positive tilt/east moving convection combo result in strong surface pressure falls along the front and a resultant E-NE tracking low. It isn't unrealistic although whenever evaluating the NAM one needs to determine if it is developing spurious unrealistic convective blobs. That is always a possibility with the non-hydro NAM. First check out the 200 and 300mb wind at 36hrs. Then this. So not sure how it has a front running from west to east either. That above atleast does not suggest it. Somehow or another though it manages to do just that even though the set up says no. Plus there is usually a block in se Canada and not a opening as that shows at 42hrs. Why again i say the model is suffering from convective feedback issues as the model takes the system close to where we see the QPF bomb at 42hrs. No QPF bomb there and i highly suspect the model would have a different outcome and thus farther to the nw. Thats me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 RGEM's a wide miss to the SE, and when that model's a wide miss to the SE, you know you're in trouble Meh Don't look at the RGEM now. I know it did well with the weekend system but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Can we just fast forward a few hours so we can see the only model that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 First check out the 200 and 300mb wind at 36hrs. Then this. So not sure how it has a front running from west to east either. That above atleast does not suggest it. Somehow or another though it manages to do just that even though the set up says no. Plus there is usually a block in se Canada and not a opening as that shows at 42hrs. Why again i say the model is suffering from convective feedback issues as the model takes the system close to where we see the QPF bomb at 42hrs. No QPF bomb there and i highly suspect the model would have a different outcome and thus farther to the nw. Thats me. Well the overall height field tilt is no help and is also why the advection patterns are not nearly as N-S oriented. There could very well be some convective "feedback"--but this forecast is extra tricky since we are seemingly at the "inflection point" of where the wave either weakens with time or amplifies with time depending on small initial condition differences. For now I will stick with a track in between GFS/Euro nudged closer to the Euro and ignore the NAM--not to mention the NAM has no verifiable trend. This is a definite case of the NAM being generally worthless for the time being except to evaluate convective potential--and even then it is iffy with its large run by run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Meh Don't look at the RGEM now. I know it did well with the weekend system but still. It did horrible with the weekend system. I know it picked up on the suppression here first (well, aside from the EURO) but it was way too wrapped up with the low over the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It did horrible with the weekend system. I know it picked up on the suppression here first (well, aside from the EURO) but it was way too wrapped up with the low over the MS river. Sorry my bad. So theres reason not to look at it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Can we just fast forward a few hours so we can see the only model that matters. And then: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well the overall height field tilt is no help and is also why the advection patterns are not nearly as N-S oriented. There could very well be some convective "feedback"--but this forecast is extra tricky since we are seemingly at the "inflection point" of where the wave either weakens with time or amplifies with time depending on small initial condition differences. For now I will stick with a track in between GFS/Euro nudged closer to the Euro and ignore the NAM--not to mention the NAM has no verifiable trend. This is a definite case of the NAM being generally worthless for the time being except to evaluate convective potential--and even then it is iffy with its large run by run changes. Agreed. As said i'll feel alot better once it is onshore. Should as well give us time to see how the Canadian system behaves. It is always fun to discuss this stuff though no matter how far off something seems or appears to be. Plus always the chance as well it will help others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The GFS follows the others. Not looking good for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 After the awesome busts of Feb 5th and Feb 20th, no one in Detroit should be able to complain the rest of the winter lol. That said, absolutely ZERO reason to move on from this storm yet, we are definitely still in the game. Agreed....as pointed out in the DTX AFD these systems tend to trend NW in time....yes remote sensing data is god for NWP and it helps, it will be interesting to see if any changes occur in track once the upper system gets sampled.....I KNOW....I KNOW........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Looks like the 0z GFS is either a tick faster or a tick east of the previous run. Also less cold sector QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Agreed....as pointed out in the DTX AFD these systems tend to trend NW in time....yes remote sensing data is god for NWP and it helps, it will be interesting to see if any changes occur in track once the upper system gets sampled.....I KNOW....I KNOW........ We shall see.... Godspeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The GFS follows the others. Not looking good for many. It's actually leading the way on the cold suppression train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 This track just does not look right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 While a tough decision, I will say that if the Euro is any south and east of the last run, I will not come back to this forum until tomorrow evening. It will be tough to keep that promise but I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 UKMET not giving an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Might turn into an interior new england special. I tend to remember these storms that come out of Mexico usually track more flat like this and don't go negative until reaching atleast the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Agreed....as pointed out in the DTX AFD these systems tend to trend NW in time....yes remote sensing data is god for NWP and it helps, it will be interesting to see if any changes occur in track once the upper system gets sampled.....I KNOW....I KNOW........ The one way it stays south is if it remains a disorganized POS. Thus that data will be crucial. I still have a hard time buying into a track directly into a high along the eastcoast even as weak as the model has it. Guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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