toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Wasn't the UKIE 2nd? Or was that just at H5? FWIW... Anthony Farnell seems to have given up on the storm potential for Friday. Yesterday he said Rain or snow tonight the storm will miss us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Our system in question should get some sampling with tonight's runs. This one may not get a full sampling until as late as 12z Thursday if it tracks into Mexico. So we won't have a sure idea on the track until the day of the storm. This is probably why IWX/GRR/DTX/HPC aren't downplaying the possibility of a NW trender despite model trends. Models did the same thing to a lesser extent with the February 4th-6th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FWIW the 21z SREF did creep north/west a bit with the precip shield... and I suppose the low track too. Still a pretty good spread to the north/west with the SLP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 FWIW... Anthony Farnell seems to have given up on the storm potential for Friday. Yesterday he said Rain or snow tonight the storm will miss us to the south. It's worth nothing. Anthony Farnell hugs the GFS like it's his dirtbag mama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 For the past 31 days, the Ukie is #1 at H5 for both day 5 and 6. http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz5.html http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html Here's the past 5 years at H5. http://www.emc.ncep....l/aczhist6.html Seasonal scores since 1985. http://www.emc.ncep....ml/seasons.html Nice find Tim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's worth nothing. Anthony Farnell hugs the GFS like it's his dirtbag mama. Tell us how you really feel. Nice find Tim! You are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's worth nothing. Anthony Farnell hugs the GFS like it's his dirtbag mama. Adam Stiles of City says it's a near miss, but he's keeping a close eye on it as he said any shift west will bring us into the snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Adam Stiles of City says it's a near miss, but he's keeping a close eye on it as he said any shift west will bring us into the snow shield. I guess I should start watching Adam Stiles then, because that's what a good met should do. Convey uncertainty. If the 18z GFS shows a snowstorm, then Farnell's gung-ho for a snowstorm on the 6 o'clock broadcast. 0z GFS comes in bone dry, snowstorm's out of his 11 o'clock forecast. No conveyance of uncertainty. GFS = gospel truth to that abortion of a "meteorologist". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any updates? The potential is there but will everything come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Any updates? The potential is there but will everything come together. Depends on where you are. With the positive tilt of the ejecting S/W--it will be difficult for a large and well developed CCB/defo band to develop which will limit the development of precip along the northern edge of the storm--regardless of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm pretty sure the 00z NAM will come north. Not sure how far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Depends on where you are. With the positive tilt of the ejecting S/W--it will be difficult for a large and well developed CCB/defo band to develop which will limit the development of precip along the northern edge of the storm--regardless of track. Is it set in stone that it will be positively tilted? I thought some of the solutions were showing it negatively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Depends on where you are. With the positive tilt of the ejecting S/W--it will be difficult for a large and well developed CCB/defo band to develop which will limit the development of precip along the northern edge of the storm--regardless of track. Too bad it wont go negative..With a track like we have it could be a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm pretty sure the 00z NAM will come north. Not sure how far yet. A hair SE by 51hrs. QPF field really shifted SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Is it set in stone that it will be positively tilted? I thought some of the solutions were showing it negatively tilted. I wouldn't say it is set in stone but the guidance has been pretty clearly showing a positive tilt wave until this reaches the EC where it merges with the main belt of westerlies and undergoes stronger development along the Gulf Stream. I would say highly likely as it would be difficult to take on a negative tilt in this config without a polar influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm pretty sure the 00z NAM will come north. Not sure how far yet. Don't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 NAM stays with southern solution. What needs to happen for this to freaking cut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Don't look like it. It's interesting it didn't. The height configuration would have suggested it. Ho-Hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The morning AFDs are gona be fun to read, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 If nothing else, it did come in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The sfc low does bomb between 48-54hr, the potential is there with this thing but its too late at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well...i have no room to complain about missing one of the 3 storms in this parade. Sunday's Thundersnow is still very fresh in my memory. I don't throw towels..I just move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The sfc low does bomb between 48-54hr, the potential is there with this thing but its too late at that point. So if it does bomb out earlier, what do you think will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Ahh, this run is in fact at least somewhat NW of the 12z run (through 60hr), but yeah, it's SE of the 18z run. I know I'm not crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not a lot of places would get snow with the system if it does indeed track the way the nam is showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Its amazing how much can change in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The sfc low does bomb between 48-54hr, the potential is there with this thing but its too late at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Not a lot of places would get snow with the system if it does indeed track the way the nam is showing... Ohio clearly get fooked in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I wouldn't say it is set in stone but the guidance has been pretty clearly showing a positive tilt wave until this reaches the EC where it merges with the main belt of westerlies and undergoes stronger development along the Gulf Stream. I would say highly likely as it would be difficult to take on a negative tilt in this config without a polar influence. Maybe it is me but i question the run from 42hrs on. Note the surface features vs everything else. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp1_042.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_042.shtml I just don't see how it ends up staying that far south with the set up that model shows. Especially with the high just off the eastcoast. That is me though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 It's worth nothing. Anthony Farnell hugs the GFS like it's his dirtbag mama. True. I don't even think he knows about the Euro. He should come on these forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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