Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Goodness, the NW cut crowd is out in full effect. Where's Moneyman and wisconsinwx at? I'm surprised they're not reveling in this talk. 18z NAM would be quite the nail biter here, pretty much like the 12z Euro, although it's probably a tick colder than the Doctor which is 99% cold rain but close. I'll prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Some i can understand it from others i cannot. As hard as i have been shafted ( note our similar seasonal totals and higher everywhere else despite seasonal norms that say otherwise ) i am not feeling it with many. However i will still try and keep from wish casting. YES i hope it comes farther nw but that is about it. We know how that has worked out with systems in my bakyard so far this winter so what i want and usually happens are two different things. lol Again the system to the north in Canada is why i think this thing will only be able to come so far to the nw unless it explodes i suppose and well nothing is showing that. Seasonal trends say it is a miss/whiff here and nw of here is a shot in the dark and so that leave south of here and thus your backyard. You guys are looking good at this point. I wont say for sure though till the thing is onshore as i have been b**ch slapped enough times by underestimating systems like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Almost 5 inches for me according to IND. Don't get excited yet...I'm still nervous despite the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Don't get excited yet...I'm still nervous despite the trends. Too funny...If your safe now just wait! Enjoy it while it last..still 2 days of trending to go..No one is safe..nothing is a lock yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Some i can understand it from others i cannot. As hard as i have been shafted ( note our similar seasonal totals and higher everywhere else despite seasonal norms that say otherwise ) i am not feeling it with many. However i will still try and keep from wish casting. YES i hope it comes farther nw but that is about it. We know how that has worked out with systems in my bakyard so far this winter so what i want and usually happens are two different things. lol Again the system to the north in Canada is why i think this thing will only be able to come so far to the nw unless it explodes i suppose and well nothing is showing that. Seasonal trends say it is a miss/whiff here and nw of here is a shot in the dark and so that leave south of here and thus your backyard. You guys are looking good at this point. I wont say for sure though till the thing is onshore as i have been b**ch slapped enough times by underestimating systems like that. Hey I know you've had some tough luck, but you had at least one decent storm. You bring sound reason and knowledge to the discussion as usual. The "NW talk" reference was just trying to be funny...it happens with every single storm. Will it trend NW, sure it's possible. But I also like to hear sound reasons for it rather than some that say "it'll go NW because I want it hit MBY". Let's be real that's the real reason. Alas, still variables to be sorted out which obviously settles who gets what and how much. As for LAF, not feeling it. Track and QPF is good, but cold air is lacking and will be the big negative factor for here. Here's my thinking as to the areas with the best chance at 4"+. The area is probably a little too wide at the moment, but you get the gist of it. Obviously I like YBY along with others. I hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I see the northern stream up north (kinda confused what north piece we are talking about the one in Canada or the one in the pac NW that could shunt this east) to be there regardless of the speed of the low coming out out of Mexico. Even if the confluence up north ( north of MN and mi) is a bit stronger it looks far enough north for this thing to track as far NW as Detroit. That's if it winds up like the euro and Ukie are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I see the northern stream up north (kinda confused what north piece we are talking about the one in Canada or the one in the pac NW that could shunt this east) to be there regardless of the speed of the low coming out out of Mexico. Even if the confluence up north ( north of MN and mi) is a bit stronger it looks far enough north for this thing to track as far NW as Detroit. That's if it winds up like the euro and Ukie are showing. Detroit is pretty far north, but that's what people in the Western Great Lakes who want this storm would be hoping for. Is direction still in question? Is it certain it will go ENE, due east, or NE? Which one is most likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hey I know you've had some tough luck, but you had at least one decent storm. You bring sound reason and knowledge to the discussion as usual. The "NW talk" reference was just trying to be funny...it happens with every single storm. Will it trend NW, sure it's possible. But I also like to hear sound reasons for it rather than some that say "it'll go NW because I want it hit MBY". Let's be real that's the real reason. Alas, still variables to be sorted out which obviously settles who gets what and how much. As for LAF, not feeling it. Track and QPF is good, but cold air is lacking and will be the big negative factor for here. Here's my thinking as to the areas with the best chance at 4"+. The area is probably a little too wide at the moment, but you get the gist of it. Obviously I like YBY along with others. I hope it pans out. I'd love it to go farther north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I see the northern stream up north (kinda confused what north piece we are talking about the one in Canada or the one in the pac NW that could shunt this east) to be there regardless of the speed of the low coming out out of Mexico. Even if the confluence up north ( north of MN and mi) is a bit stronger it looks far enough north for this thing to track as far NW as Detroit. That's if it winds up like the euro and Ukie are showing. Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Pretty clear which models they are leaning towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks about right to me (HPC map). Although they're a little stingier on the 4"+ area...of course I'm a little too wide at the moment. We'll refine as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks about right to me (HPC map). Although they're a little stingier on the 4"+ area...of course I'm a little too wide at the moment. We'll refine as we get closer. Aleking has thrown in the towel...it's over for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'd love it to go farther north.. Shush you. We can draw the rain/snow line just north of Lebanon if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Aleking has thrown in the towel...it's over game on for Chicago. Fixed for accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I think the NAM is now just starting to trend toward the Euro which itself has shifted a little bit SE in the past few runs. So, I really don't see a major NW trend at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I will throw 5 bucks into the pot saying the NAM continues a tad more north with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 just to clarify, when i say it could track NW, i am referring to ontario and quebec (and i believe MI also). i am not basing this on MBY, but the pattern i see over quebec which i am comparing to previous patterns. recall, i was on the SE push with the last storm due to blocking PV in quebec, even though it meant no snow IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Fixed for accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 just to clarify, when i say it could track NW, i am referring to ontario and quebec (and i believe MI also). i am not basing this on MBY, but the pattern i see over quebec which i am comparing to previous patterns. recall, i was on the SE push with the last storm due to blocking PV in quebec, even though it meant no snow IMBY. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Detroit? That would be extreme. Actually are a couple euro ensemble members that take this thing to Toledo but none as far north/nw as Detroit though. Majority are near/along i70. very tight clustering between the river and i80 as it crosses Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Reading through the AFDs from Indiana, something has to give. IWX thinking all rain in their southern counties and IND talking snow in their northern areas. This is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 just to clarify, when i say it could track NW, i am referring to ontario and quebec (and i believe MI also). i am not basing this on MBY, but the pattern i see over quebec which i am comparing to previous patterns. recall, i was on the SE push with the last storm due to blocking PV in quebec, even though it meant no snow IMBY. You know I wasn't referring to you, right? OL brings much knowledge to the table. It was just a tongue in cheek comment anyway...a poor one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Reading through the AFDs from Indiana, something has to give. IWX thinking all rain in their southern counties and IND talking snow in their northern areas. This is going to be ugly. I always enjoy comparing the two forecasts. It can really cloud the picture at times. Hopefully 00z can clear things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GRR (Grand Rapid Michigan) AFD..snip its about the storm THE MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AS A RESULT OF THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CA IS STILL EXPECTED TO ROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND HEAD E/NE THROUGH FRI. THE MORE ZONAL FLOW UP NORTH LOOKS TO DEFLECT THE EJECTING SYSTEM AWAY A BIT. THE GFS...AND ITS ENSEMBLES KEEP THIS SO FAR SOUTH THAT WE WOULD REMAIN DRY. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP THAT FAR WITH THE S TREND...BUT WE WILL TREND THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE SOUTH SIMILAR TO THE EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GRR (Grand Rapid Michigan) AFD..snip its about the storm THE MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AS A RESULT OF THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CA IS STILL EXPECTED TO ROUND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND HEAD E/NE THROUGH FRI. THE MORE ZONAL FLOW UP NORTH LOOKS TO DEFLECT THE EJECTING SYSTEM AWAY A BIT. THE GFS...AND ITS ENSEMBLES KEEP THIS SO FAR SOUTH THAT WE WOULD REMAIN DRY. WE ARE NOT READY TO JUMP THAT FAR WITH THE S TREND...BUT WE WILL TREND THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE SOUTH SIMILAR TO THE EURO. This is one of the few times GRR didn't go with the more snowy option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is one of the few times GRR didn't go with the more snowy option. Im sure they are hush hush about rooting for the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z GFS might be a smidge north but nothing siggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 You know I wasn't referring to you, right? OL brings much knowledge to the table. It was just a tongue in cheek comment anyway...a poor one at that. yeah i just wanted to mention it, since i said NW to clarify that i didnt mean waaaay NW. as i said, i expect it could also trend SE based on the speed/strength of the energy. i'm not putting as much stock into the confluence, but i know others are.....and thats fine, thats why we are here to discuss meteorologial possibilities. we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This is one of the few times GRR didn't go with the more snowy option. Actually they did ( thus the euro ) for the southern areas anyways. For them this is a bit unusual to see though because usually if it is not hitting Grand Rapids then the storm is not happening anywhere in the GRR area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 GFS is at the point, it shouldn't even be given any thought. Although that kind of blanket statement will bring some haters your way, I totally agree. I feel like the Euro kicks its butt at times, and considering this is supposed to be a new and improved model, I'm far from impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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