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Feb. 23-25th Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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Lol the whole run is epic just like the 0z GFS.. Storm after storm after storm..

Skilling had a pretty interesting graphic about a mid February warmup a while back in 1994 that ended with a bunch of snow.. Eeerily similar dates as well..

Oh yeah I remember Feb '94. We had over a foot of snow fall on the 22nd, and that was followed up by a very powerful clipper on the 25th with 5" of snow and strong winds. Created full blizzard conditions with all the fresh snow on the ground.

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even so, overall the H5 set up to me says a lot of cold air will move in, exp surface cold...I don't know the official end to ice season, but it has the look of ice. But it my be to late and to warm.

We had a big March ice storm in LAF about 20 years ago, and I know Michigan had one several years ago in April, so it's not too late.

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My, this looks to have the potential for yet another major storm for the upper midwest. Quite the February roll. GFS lagging behind in upper level organization................again.

Looks quite wet as well.

I call this the tease pattern for LAF. You know it's probably going to end up being north but it's close enough to not ignore.

Some areas are really going to rack up some snow this month.

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Lol the worst precip type there is..

Basically. I mean, it was cool to get a bonafide wind driven sleet storm but that's over and done with. As far as this event, I might start getting a little excited in the next couple days if the solutions haven't moved north by then.

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don't if this was posted but here was the LOT AFD by Gino.

all that needs to be said at this distance

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE GENERAL LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER

THE NORTHWESTERN HEMISPHERE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE

TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NOAM AND LOW AMPLITUDE

RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES US IN A DISTURBED

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES RIPPLING OUT OF THE

WESTERN TROUGH BRINGING US UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POTENTIALLY MOST

SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN THE

NEIGHBORHOOD SOMETIMES AROUND THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS

DEVELOPING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM. DESPITE THE AGREEMENT

WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THIS RUN...THIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR OFF INTO

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL LAND...SO TOO EARLY TO START TALKING WITH ANY

DEGREE OF SERIOUSNESS ABOUT PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS. HAVING SAID

THAT...THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY WARRANTS WATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY

ADVERSE/WINTRY WEATHER.

IZZI

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Basically. I mean, it was cool to get a bonafide wind driven sleet storm but that's over and done with. As far as this event, I might start getting a little excited in the next couple days if the solutions haven't moved north by then.

Climatologically speaking, the storm would probably favor a farther north track. How far north, who knows? The Euro last week had this tracking west of me which I doubt happens. I guess time will tell.

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MKE AFD:

INTERESTING PERIOD HERE. THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY QUIET AS HIGH

PRESSURE RIDGING BRIEFLY NOSES INTO THE AREA. WE/VE BEEN WATCHING

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DANCE AROUND POSSIBLE STORM RIDING UP THE

BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT TIMES IT WAS

COMING UP HERE...THEN IT WASN/T...THEN THEY WERE DIFFERENT BY 36

HOURS...ETC. THE LATEST...THE EC NOW BRINGS THE NW SNOW SHIELD

INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...PULLING IT OUT

QUICKLY BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS A JUMP NORTH FROM IT/S PREVIOUS

RUN. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS SOUTH

OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN SFC HIGH...IT

APPEARS THERE IS ROOM FOR THIS SYSTEM TO COME NORTH. THAT/S

CERTAINLY BEEN THE TREND THIS WINTER. CAN/T GET TOO BOLD IN THE

FORECAST YET...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT STAY TUNED.

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Not to get bogged down with ptype this far out but noticed that the GFS clown maps have sleet knocking on the door. I could go my entire life without seeing any more sleet and I wouldn't miss it.

lol, we don't have to worry about sleet with this one. Nor snow for that matter...but I know what you mean. If I never saw sleet again, I'd be happy. Alas, we all know this one is ticketed for places farther north. Rinse, wash, repeat. What a miserable finish to winter for us...

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lol, we don't have to worry about sleet with this one. Nor snow for that matter...but I know what you mean. If I never saw sleet again, I'd be happy. Alas, we all know this one is ticketed for places farther north. Rinse, wash, repeat. What a miserable finish to winter for us...

Apparently the Euro was farther south previously so I'd want to see that come back south to really think we're in the game.

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Apparently the Euro was farther south previously so I'd want to see that come back south to really think we're in the game.

It's been back and forth, north and south, with the past couple of runs. Of course it's pretty warm compared to the other guidance at the moment.

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