Stebo Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Whats that a storm every 50-60 hours starting from Tomorrow on, sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Whats that a storm every 50-60 hours starting from Tomorrow on, sign me up + 1 hundred million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Not much snow on the backside per the euro I dont think and a little more on the gfs. Some serious moisture in the warm sector. Could be the opposite of this first storm and be rain dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Baby is back on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wow. Storm of the ages showing up on the new 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Wow. Storm of the ages showing up on the new 12z GFS. Lol the whole run is epic just like the 0z GFS.. Storm after storm after storm.. Skilling had a pretty interesting graphic about a mid February warmup a while back in 1994 that ended with a bunch of snow.. Eeerily similar dates as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Lol the whole run is epic just like the 0z GFS.. Storm after storm after storm.. Skilling had a pretty interesting graphic about a mid February warmup a while back in 1994 that ended with a bunch of snow.. Eeerily similar dates as well.. Oh yeah I remember Feb '94. We had over a foot of snow fall on the 22nd, and that was followed up by a very powerful clipper on the 25th with 5" of snow and strong winds. Created full blizzard conditions with all the fresh snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 EURO is gonna be a monster for someone in the MW. Stronger and farther west at 102 already. Sub 1000 in OK/KS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 HR 108: 1000 MB low a tad NW of STL. 0z HR 120: 1000 MB low in E. IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 HR 114: 1000 MB LOW in W/C. IND. Nice hit for W. IL. Chicago is a tad to warm it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 HR 114: 1000 MB LOW in W/C. IND. Nice hit for W. IL. Chicago is a tad to warm it looks like. How's the moisture looking at this juncture for Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ORD starts a tad warm but we changeover to snow and get a solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 ORD starts a tad warm but we changeover to snow and get a solid event. even so, overall the H5 set up to me says a lot of cold air will move in, exp surface cold...I don't know the official end to ice season, but it has the look of ice. But it my be to late and to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 even so, overall the H5 set up to me says a lot of cold air will move in, exp surface cold...I don't know the official end to ice season, but it has the look of ice. But it my be to late and to warm. We had a big March ice storm in LAF about 20 years ago, and I know Michigan had one several years ago in April, so it's not too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 YYZ QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 My, this looks to have the potential for yet another major storm for the upper midwest. Quite the February roll. GFS lagging behind in upper level organization................again. Looks quite wet as well. I call this the tease pattern for LAF. You know it's probably going to end up being north but it's close enough to not ignore. Some areas are really going to rack up some snow this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 did a write up on my blog regarding this system and the one after as well as the pattern. http://bataviastormchaser.blogspot.com/2011/02/all-aboard-wave-train.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Very good write up TS, I think the next 2 systems (one thu/fri) and the other one the following week has the potential to produce at least 6 inches somewhere in the MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 the one thursday/friday has the potential to be very dynamic...+SN in the cold sector with tornadoes in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wouldn't you have to worry about maybe the storms robbing the moisture in the cold sector then? Always thought that is usually a problem during big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wouldn't you have to worry about maybe the storms robbing the moisture in the cold sector then? Always thought that is usually a problem during big storms. It depends how they are situated. An east-west linear pattern tends to be the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not to get bogged down with ptype this far out but noticed that the GFS clown maps have sleet knocking on the door. I could go my entire life without seeing any more sleet and I wouldn't miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not to get bogged down with ptype this far out but noticed that the GFS clown maps have sleet knocking on the door. I could go my entire life without seeing any more sleet and I wouldn't miss it. Lol the worst precip type there is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lol the worst precip type there is.. Basically. I mean, it was cool to get a bonafide wind driven sleet storm but that's over and done with. As far as this event, I might start getting a little excited in the next couple days if the solutions haven't moved north by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 don't if this was posted but here was the LOT AFD by Gino. all that needs to be said at this distance VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE GENERAL LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HEMISPHERE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NOAM AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES US IN A DISTURBED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES RIPPLING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BRINGING US UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POTENTIALLY MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD SOMETIMES AROUND THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM. DESPITE THE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THIS RUN...THIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR OFF INTO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL LAND...SO TOO EARLY TO START TALKING WITH ANY DEGREE OF SERIOUSNESS ABOUT PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS. HAVING SAID THAT...THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY WARRANTS WATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE/WINTRY WEATHER. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Basically. I mean, it was cool to get a bonafide wind driven sleet storm but that's over and done with. As far as this event, I might start getting a little excited in the next couple days if the solutions haven't moved north by then. Climatologically speaking, the storm would probably favor a farther north track. How far north, who knows? The Euro last week had this tracking west of me which I doubt happens. I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 MKE AFD: INTERESTING PERIOD HERE. THURSDAY LOOKS PRETTY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BRIEFLY NOSES INTO THE AREA. WE/VE BEEN WATCHING THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DANCE AROUND POSSIBLE STORM RIDING UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT TIMES IT WAS COMING UP HERE...THEN IT WASN/T...THEN THEY WERE DIFFERENT BY 36 HOURS...ETC. THE LATEST...THE EC NOW BRINGS THE NW SNOW SHIELD INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...PULLING IT OUT QUICKLY BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS A JUMP NORTH FROM IT/S PREVIOUS RUN. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHERN SFC HIGH...IT APPEARS THERE IS ROOM FOR THIS SYSTEM TO COME NORTH. THAT/S CERTAINLY BEEN THE TREND THIS WINTER. CAN/T GET TOO BOLD IN THE FORECAST YET...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not to get bogged down with ptype this far out but noticed that the GFS clown maps have sleet knocking on the door. I could go my entire life without seeing any more sleet and I wouldn't miss it. lol, we don't have to worry about sleet with this one. Nor snow for that matter...but I know what you mean. If I never saw sleet again, I'd be happy. Alas, we all know this one is ticketed for places farther north. Rinse, wash, repeat. What a miserable finish to winter for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 lol, we don't have to worry about sleet with this one. Nor snow for that matter...but I know what you mean. If I never saw sleet again, I'd be happy. Alas, we all know this one is ticketed for places farther north. Rinse, wash, repeat. What a miserable finish to winter for us... Apparently the Euro was farther south previously so I'd want to see that come back south to really think we're in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Apparently the Euro was farther south previously so I'd want to see that come back south to really think we're in the game. It's been back and forth, north and south, with the past couple of runs. Of course it's pretty warm compared to the other guidance at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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