snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well the 12z Euro looks good right? 0.41" but that's down from 0.77" at 0z and a higher number still from 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z nam looks like its going to be stronger and further nw from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 0.41" but that's down from 0.77" at 0z and a higher number still from 12z yesterday. Well euro ensemble mean still has you/Toronto safely in the .50+ zone. Heck the .75+ line is very close to you and i would say closer to you vs Buffalo and thus Buffalo is in the .75+ zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 18z nam looks like its going to be stronger and further nw from 12z Doubtful. Take note just north of Duluth. That is even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well euro ensemble mean still has you/Toronto safely in the .50+ zone. Heck the .75+ line is very close to you and i would say closer to you vs Buffalo and thus Buffalo is in the .75+ zone. Like you said, it's going to be very interesting how this transpires. EURO/EURO ens. agreement is usually a lock, especially within 72 hours. If a GFS like scenario verified, it would be quite an epic bust for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yep. Here's the latest point and click as well: Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Almost 5 inches for me according to IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Doubtful. Take note just north of Duluth. That is even stronger. To counteract that, s/w is a little sharper and heights out east are higher. Might be a small shift but nothing drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 To counteract that, s/w is a little sharper and heights out east are higher. Might be a small shift but nothing drastic. I'll counter with the massive QPF bomb in S.KY. That is sure to screw things up with this run. Wonder why we are back to this crap with the QPF/Convective issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 there are a couple of key differences between the GFS/Euro that i see 1. handling of the canada northern stream, defintely more agressive on the GFS which helps to push the confuence S and E 2. speed of ejection of the southern wave. euro is faster by quite a bit within the 1st 24 hours which when combined with the less pressing conluence makes all the difference......GFS is slower and thus waits for the confluence to sink S and E and then the storm comes out on the GFS. timing is everything as usual. i see the 18z NAM has speeded the energy way up compared to the 12z, and as a result should be further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'll counter with the massive QPF bomb in S.KY. That is sure to screw things up with this run. Wonder why we are back to this crap with the QPF/Convective issues? If the NAM is further north despite being contaminated by feedback issues, that might be a good sign. Kind of unusual that the SREFS/NAM go in opposite directions. Usually they're sewed at the hip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 By 60 NAM is unquestionably further north. Pcpn shield is almost up to the MI/IN line. Model madness makes for interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Is it stronger, or just further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Dtx.... AREA SOUTH.THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWTHURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT.THE DEEP UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ISFORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURS. THE GFS AND NAMINDICATE THIS WAVE SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING ALLPRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE UKMET HOWEVER IS MORE AMPLIFIEDWITH THIS SOUTHERN WAVE AND BRINGS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTOCENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIE INBETWEEN. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH THE LACK OF RAOBS OFFTHE WEST COAST ADDS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THEAMPLITUDE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF THE SURFACELOW. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST NORTHERN STREAM JET CORE /150KTS/OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD UPPER JETCOUPLING OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTENUNDERESTIMATE THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES LIFTINGOUT OF THE SW US. THESE FACTORS SEEM TO SUPPORT THE STRONGER UKMETSOLUTION AND IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH TAKESINTO ACCOUNT A STRONGER AND MORE WESTWARD SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULDPLACE THE DEFORMATION FORCING RIGHT OVER SE MI. SO THERE REMAINS THEPOTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OVER WESTERNCANADA WILL THEN ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THEWEEKEND...SENDING TEMPS BACK BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE MEDIUMRANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A NORTHERN STREAM WAVEACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OFPRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS THENSHOW ANOTHER POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING UP INTO THE OHIOVALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM /MON TO TUES TIMEFRAME/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER ONE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS. IT MAY ACTUALLY ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGIONAND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO JUST BE A RAIN MAKER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If the NAM is further north despite being contaminated by feedback issues, that might be a good sign. Kind of unusual that the SREFS/NAM go in opposite directions. Usually they're sewed at the hip. True and vs 12z and 06z it is a bit farther to the north/nw. Up to this point it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Almost 5 inches for me according to IND. Might be another storm, like the last couple, that you better than Hoosier and I do. As it stands now, I still expect primarily rain (at least 80%) with the accumulating snow just north of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 By 60 NAM is unquestionably further north. Pcpn shield is almost up to the MI/IN line. Model madness makes for interesting times. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 there really is nothing to stop this from coming N and W (wthin reason) other than the energy paramters itself (speed/strength). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 66 is a huge hit for TOL and FWA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 there really is nothing to stop this from coming N and W (wthin reason) other than the energy paramters itself (speed/strength). That, plus the northern stream kicker that sags down in the northern Plains that yourself and Harry have alluded to. I was all over the NW trend for this one but my confidence sort of waxes and wanes with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 there really is nothing to stop this from coming N and W (wthin reason) other than the energy paramters itself (speed/strength). More of a question how far nw can it come? Again see the system tracking out ahead of it in Southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Goodness, the NW cut crowd is out in full effect. Where's Moneyman and wisconsinwx at? I'm surprised they're not reveling in this talk. 18z NAM would be quite the nail biter here, pretty much like the 12z Euro, although it's probably a tick colder than the Doctor which is 99% cold rain but close. I'll prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 More of a question how far nw can it come? Again see the system tracking out ahead of it in Southern Canada. How far NW do you think it can go? One thing to consider is in the past few storms, when we get close (within 48 hours of the storm), the initialization of the models tends to underestimate the strength, in turn underestimating the track a bit, allowing for adjustments north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Goodness, the NW cut crowd is out in full effect. Where's Moneyman and wisconsinwx at? I'm surprised they're not reveling in this talk. 18z NAM would be quite the nail biter here, pretty much like the 12z Euro, although it's probably a tick colder than the Doctor which is 99% cold rain but close. I'll prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I'm here, I'm just biting my nails now hoping for a sign that a NW trend is possible. That said, as long as one of the next two systems gives me a decent snowstorm, I will be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm here, I'm just biting my nails now hoping for a sign that a NW trend is possible. That said, as long as one of the next two systems gives me a decent snowstorm, I will be satisfied. How about us bums down here have this one, and the next can be yours...deal? Also keep chucking 'em. Early AFD from IND today, but I like the last sentence: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE REAL FORECAST PROBLEM IS THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW IS A CONSIDERATION. WETTER NAM IS SUPPORTED BY ECM...SO WILL USE HIGHER MET POPS. WHILE THERMAL FIELDS VARY...ALL ARE CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ELSEWHERE. PENDING LATER INFORMATION...THATS AS PRECISE AS I CAN GET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 No way is SEMI "off the table" Any trends NW could very well make this is a big event. Oh fun times ahead..Model madness continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 How far NW do you think it can go? One thing to consider is in the past few storms, when we get close (within 48 hours of the storm), the initialization of the models tends to underestimate the strength, in turn underestimating the track a bit, allowing for adjustments north and west. Considering how tepid the models have been on trending one way or the other, and considering there's only about 60 hours left until the storm's into the OV, I'd say it's looking pretty bleak for yby. A strong NW trend within 24 hours still puts the snow axis a fair bit to your SE. imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 That, plus the northern stream kicker that sags down in the northern Plains that yourself and Harry have alluded to. I was all over the NW trend for this one but my confidence sort of waxes and wanes with the models. me too. i know you mentioned the NW trend with this one several days ago.. as far as the northern stream confuence goes, i dont think its as much of a factor as the speed of ejection of the wave itself. if it ejects fast enough, then it will outrace the confluence. of course the confluence could be less of a factor, but id prefer a faster ejection as the model runs that have shown it also show a more robust piece of energy as BI has alluded to as well as yourself, and the factors that brings with it. in addition, i dont see the storm tracking like that at all once ot gets into the northeast. the 18z NAM track will never verify just north of NYC. it will either center jump, pass SE of there, or much closer to the SLV. the op euros track is unreasonable also IMO. there will be an adjustment to the NW or SE or a triple point low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 No way is SEMI "off the table" Any trends NW could very well make this is a big event. Oh fun times ahead..Model madness continues. Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 More of a question how far nw can it come? Again see the system tracking out ahead of it in Southern Canada. well thats why i put "within reason" in brackets. that confluence will only let it come so far. you are defintely in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Who said that? No one...a few southern trends of the computers. BTW ... Heres a snip it from DTX and there AFD. Seems they are taking a liking to the Ukie MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE SW US. THESE FACTORS SEEM TO SUPPORT THE STRONGER UKMET SOLUTION AND IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT A STRONGER AND MORE WESTWARD SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS WOULD PLACE THE DEFORMATION FORCING RIGHT OVER SE MI. SO THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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