Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 DFI, FWA, Rensselaer, IKK all get hit good on the Euro. Ha, my Dad's snow blower bit the dust recently. He will not pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So right now it's basically just the UKIE that gives folks this far north a decent hit, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 There you go fanning the flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Glad someone else got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 There you go fanning the flames. I don't think so. Indiana & Ohio fighting is like watching two clowns fight over who looks sillier. (J/K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Fortuantely the models are sorta/kinda in their zany range (when they start spitting out crazy solutions) and the energy hasn't been fully sampled yet, so it's hardly time to wave the white flag yet if you're along and in between the DSM-MKE-MBS corridor and the EVV-LMK-PIT corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hey, I got an unexpectedly high total of near 6 inches of snow yesterday afternoon and night IMBY and now IWX is talking about this next system giving upwards of 6 inches north of a Rensselaer to Defiance line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 JMA lol, I was just about to post that. Lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ironically the QPF field is similar in MI JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Lock it in? and throw away the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So what needs to happen for colder air to move in? models have lowered mid level and surface temps for this here dramatically. but they are not quite there..I guess it will take a more wrapped up system that travels a bit south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The FIM drops 2-4 inches here....more north a nice swath of 3-6 from just north of STL to Kirksville, to LAF and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will be curious to see what the Euro ensembles have to say. Until then, we have the GFS ensembles. Several members seem to be a least a little north of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So what needs to happen for colder air to move in? models have lowered mid level and surface temps for this here dramatically. but they are not quite there..I guess it will take a more wrapped up system that travels a bit south of me. You're probably going to need some type of phasing, which isn't shown on any of the models really. This is pure southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will be curious to see what the Euro ensembles have to say. Until then, we have the GFS ensembles. Several members seem to be a least a little north of the op run. True, but not as far north as they were 24 hours ago. They've been slowly trending towards the OP. Personally don't think this is instructive of anything, as the GEFS have been horrible this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Will be curious to see what the Euro ensembles have to say. Until then, we have the GFS ensembles. Several members seem to be a least a little north of the op run. And the 12z GFS individual ensemble total QPF maps through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Doesn't seem to be much in the way to prevent a NW trend other than if the low is just too weak. Impressive cutoff of precip though. 1-2 inches from lafayette to indy with only .50 into Se MI. Another nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Doesn't seem to be much in the way to prevent a NW trend other than if the low is just too weak. Impressive cutoff of precip though. 1-2 inches from lafayette to indy with only .50 into Se MI. Another nail biter. Well, if there's going to be one, it needs to start NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 15z SREFS heading further SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 15z SREFS heading further SE again. The fact that mets are hyping the severe potential up to about kentucky, doesn't that indicate that this storm will be pretty strong, thus the further suppressed and se tracks are more unlikely? Anyone have a graphic of the NAO? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 15z SREFS heading further SE again. i'm surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 The fact that mets are hyping the severe potential up to about kentucky, doesn't that indicate that this storm will be pretty strong, thus the further suppressed and se tracks are more unlikely? Anyone have a graphic of the NAO? Thanks It'll be firmly positive, although transitioning. Like b_i said, sometimes the overall pattern can argue for a more amplified solution but if the initiating piece of energy is weak enough, it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Doesn't seem to be much in the way to prevent a NW trend other than if the low is just too weak. Impressive cutoff of precip though. 1-2 inches from lafayette to indy with only .50 into Se MI. Another nail biter. There's a front-running northern stream impulse that will tell the tale on how far north this ultimately makes it. Seems the trend on the models is for it to exert a little more influence than originally thought. Still, the zone of all snow is going to be fairly small, as it looks like a pure southern stream event that will be working with relatively marginal cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well, if there's going to be one, it needs to start NOW! I am not so sure this will come back to the nw. This system hits on a euro weak spot and thus Canada etc. Like the GFS/NAM this run has a stronger system across Canada as well and thus sends the confluence zone farther to the south. Thus as well why we have such a sharp cut off on the north side. Could be just a blip and the euro ensembles could come back and laugh it off. We'll see. This is looking like a LAF etc special. Only real shot left for farther north is that this system has not come on shore yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like IND is biting on the trends. They have "moderate snow accumulations" in the zones for LAF on Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 15z SREFS heading further SE again. Well the 12z Euro looks good right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like IND is biting on the trends. They have "moderate snow accumulations" in the zones for LAF on Thursday night. PLEASE no sleet here :-) I tell ya, while it is not a ton, I can once again drive our vehicles on top of the glacier without sinking from yesterday's surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I am not so sure this will come back to the nw. This system hits on a euro weak spot and thus Canada etc. Like the GFS/NAM this run has a stronger system across Canada as well and thus sends the confluence zone farther to the south. Thus as well why we have such a sharp cut off on the north side. Could be just a blip and the euro ensembles could come back and laugh it off. We'll see. This is looking like a LAF etc special. Only real shot left for farther north is that this system has not come on shore yet. Hmmm.. The euro ensembles have held their ground.. A shade drier on the northside though vs 00z run. .50 line runs from IA/IL/MO line ene to South Haven and on over to just north of Port Huron to Toronto. .75+ from near Josh back to a little north of LAF on back to about 50miles south of the IA/IL/MO line. .25+ line runs from just north of QC to the IL/WI line at the Lake on over to Muskegon to Bay City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looks like IND is biting on the trends. They have "moderate snow accumulations" in the zones for LAF on Thursday night. Yep. Here's the latest point and click as well: Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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